Game Analysis
Lean – KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Baltimore
This game will be our first look into how Kansas City’s offense responds without Kareem Hunt against a real NFL defense. Spencer Ware managed just a 29% rush success rate in Hunt’s place while recording only 1 catch for 5 yards and now he’ll face a Ravens rush defense ranked 2nd by our numbers. Furthermore, Baltimore’s defense is the only unit in the league holding opposing running backs to less than 4 yards per target and Ware will need to pick up his play for this matchup. The Ravens are also best in the league defending opposing wide receivers, limiting them to just 6.3 yards per target, which is 0.8 yards per target better than Kansas City’s defense, which ranks 2nd in that category.
While Kansas City won’t get as much production from their running back position as they usually do the Chiefs should be able to exploit Baltimore’s most-glaring defensive weakness. The Ravens are surrendering 8.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (26th) and Travis Kelce ranks 1st at his position with 2.58 yards per route run and 70.3 expected points added. The Chiefs scored at will despite sloppy play in Oakland last week and the adjustment for Hunt is only half a point, so I suspect they’ll play well – especially considering that good defensive teams tend to play better at home than on the road against a good offense.
Baltimore’s offense has a 66% rush rate in Lamar Jackson’s first 3 starts, which is 25 percentage points above league average, resulting in a pace 1.5 seconds slower than the NFL average. The Ravens are 3-0 with Jackson under center in large part because all those runs have come against teams ranked 27th, 29th, and 31st in our rush defense ratings. Kansas City’s pass rush and secondary are solid, especially if Eric Berry is able to make his season debut, but those skills are less valuable against Baltimore’s gimmicky offense and I expect the Ravens to build on their success this week versus the worst rush defense in the league.
Our model does favor Kansas City by 7.8 points and the Chiefs apply to a 120-58-4 ATS situation that plays elite teams at home after consecutive road games. Baltimore, meanwhile, applies to a 52-126-4 ATS road letdown situation based on their current win streak. I’ll lean with Kansas City at -7 points or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
35.1%
-
NYPP
6.4
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.2
23.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
26.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.4%
39.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.3%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.2
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
43.8%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
41.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.6
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.1
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.5
42.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
58.0%
46.8%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.8%
21.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.2%
42.0%
-
NYPP
8.8
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.8
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.5
4.8
-
Stuff Rate
19.3%
17.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.3%
57.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
48.3%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.3
67.5
-
Early Down Succ
55.6%
52.1%
-
Succ Rate
54.0%
51.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
50.6%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Play
7.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
27.4
-
Run Ratio
41.1%
37.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
25.4
-
Game Control
6.9
-6.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
| 9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% /
51.0% |
5.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
48.1% |
37.5% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
76 |
44.2% /
45.8% |
41.1% /
50.0% |
47.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
35.5% |
26.0 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% /
39.5% |
9.5% /
2.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
47.4% /
37.5% |
15.8% /
31.3% |
4.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
54 |
53.6% /
38.5% |
48.7% /
38.9% |
33.7% /
56.5% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
73.1% /
29.6% |
31.6 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% /
29.7% |
3.8% /
8.1% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
68.9% /
47.6% |
11.1% /
19.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
58 |
63.0% /
42.5% |
59.2% /
36.2% |
60.8% /
44.2% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
63.4% /
36.2% |
24.8 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
61.5% /
37.5% |
11.5% /
31.3% |
4.0 /
2.2 |
80 /
46 |
63.8% /
44.1% |
57.5% /
37.0% |
29.3% /
8.3% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
1.3% /
2.2% |
65.0% /
34.8% |
25.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% /
53.6% |
10.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
56.4% /
55.6% |
10.3% /
25.9% |
5.1 /
3.5 |
68 /
83 |
52.8% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
25.5% /
28.3% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
57.4% /
32.5% |
29.8 /
30.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LAC |
38 – 28 W |
9.6 |
46.4% /
55.8% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
9.1 /
8.0 |
59.3% /
59.1% |
25.9% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
5.6 |
55 /
74 |
55.6% /
61.3% |
52.7% /
56.8% |
66.0% /
45.1% |
6.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
49.1% /
29.7% |
29.1 /
20.1 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
42 – 37 W |
9.7 |
69.0% /
50.8% |
3.4% /
1.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.1 /
7.2 |
44.4% /
38.5% |
14.8% /
23.1% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
56 /
74 |
63.8% /
51.7% |
57.1% /
48.6% |
56.1% /
35.2% |
8.1 /
6.4 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
48.2% /
17.6% |
30.3 /
21.8 |
| 3 |
SF |
38 – 27 W |
13.8 |
55.0% /
44.1% |
5.0% /
11.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
51.7% |
16.7% /
24.1% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
70 /
63 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
47.6% |
28.2% /
42.9% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
46.0% |
26.8 /
22.8 |
| 4 |
@DEN |
27 – 23 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
32.4% |
2.2% /
10.8% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
6.1 |
66.7% /
72.7% |
14.8% /
18.2% |
5.3 /
7.2 |
73 /
59 |
59.3% /
53.3% |
56.2% /
47.5% |
48.8% /
59.7% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
37.3% |
30.6 /
24.2 |
| 5 |
JAC |
30 – 14 W |
14.4 |
87.0% /
73.7% |
4.3% /
13.2% |
9.1% /
12.1% |
13.0 /
10.6 |
28.1% /
70.6% |
25.0% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
55 /
55 |
45.5% /
48.4% |
52.7% /
72.7% |
49.3% /
49.8% |
7.7 /
9.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
58.2% /
30.9% |
21.3 /
28.3 |
| 6 |
@NE |
40 – 43 L |
-5.3 |
50.0% /
48.6% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.8 |
70.6% /
64.1% |
17.6% /
15.4% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
53 /
76 |
59.5% /
60.0% |
56.6% /
56.6% |
55.4% /
44.9% |
8.4 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
32.1% /
51.3% |
39.9 /
30.6 |
| 7 |
CIN |
45 – 10 W |
19.4 |
61.0% /
42.9% |
4.9% /
5.7% |
2.6% /
3.0% |
8.6 /
5.0 |
51.7% /
47.4% |
10.3% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
70 /
54 |
54.4% /
47.6% |
57.1% /
44.4% |
52.5% /
42.3% |
7.9 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
35.2% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 8 |
DEN |
30 – 23 W |
4.5 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
5.6% /
12.8% |
2.9% /
2.9% |
8.1 /
5.7 |
33.3% /
66.7% |
16.7% /
13.3% |
2.7 /
6.3 |
54 /
69 |
46.5% /
55.4% |
44.4% /
52.2% |
42.4% /
57.7% |
6.3 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
33.3% /
43.5% |
38.0 /
23.3 |
| 9 |
@CLE |
37 – 21 W |
10.7 |
63.6% /
46.7% |
6.1% /
4.4% |
3.2% /
2.3% |
10.9 /
6.4 |
58.3% /
56.0% |
29.2% /
24.0% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
57 /
70 |
61.7% /
51.9% |
61.4% /
50.0% |
62.1% /
26.0% |
8.8 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
35.7% |
33.3 /
21.8 |
| 10 |
ARI |
26 – 14 W |
8.0 |
54.5% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
5.1% |
6.4 /
3.8 |
45.8% /
57.7% |
33.3% /
7.7% |
5.0 /
3.7 |
57 /
70 |
56.8% /
44.2% |
50.9% /
44.3% |
58.3% /
34.1% |
5.8 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
37.1% |
36.2 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@LA |
51 – 54 L |
-4.5 |
59.2% /
46.3% |
6.1% /
9.3% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
7.0 |
45.0% /
39.1% |
5.0% /
21.7% |
4.9 /
3.4 |
69 /
77 |
55.2% /
48.3% |
55.1% /
44.2% |
57.7% /
49.2% |
7.9 /
5.9 |
2.9% /
2.6% |
29.0% /
29.9% |
27.5 /
26.0 |
| 13 |
@OAK |
40 – 33 W |
10.1 |
55.3% /
48.8% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
48.5% /
67.9% |
15.2% /
17.9% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
71 /
69 |
57.7% /
52.6% |
52.1% /
56.5% |
52.5% /
49.8% |
6.6 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
4.3% |
46.5% /
40.6% |
29.9 /
31.7 |
| 14 |
BAL |
27 – 24 W |
1.6 |
53.6% /
41.4% |
5.4% /
10.3% |
1.9% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
55.6% /
56.4% |
25.9% /
10.3% |
3.5 /
5.1 |
83 /
68 |
55.6% /
52.8% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
28.3% /
25.5% |
5.3 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
32.5% /
57.4% |
30.2 /
29.8 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Kansas City Chiefs