Baltimore Ravens @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 251
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +4, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Baltimore

· Baltimore’s offense is averaging only 21.3 points per game since the start of October after scoring 99 points in the first three weeks of the season. However, the Ravens really should’ve put a bigger number on the board last week as seven possessions in Panthers territory ended in just 6 points.

· Lamar Jackson is establishing a connection with WR Demarcus Robinson, who had 128 yards last week. I expect Robinson to be contained this Sunday though by Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell, who ranks 20th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Instead, Jackson will go to his top receiving option, tight end Mark Andrews. Jacksonville’s defense is allowing 9.1 yards per target to TEs (30th) and Andrews has a 63% success rate (4th).

· The status of Baltimore left tackle Ronnie Stanley will be worth monitoring. Stanley has conceded only 3 pressures in 151 pass blocking snaps this season while backup tackle Patrick Mekari has allowed 9 pressures in 134 pass blocking snaps. Either Stanley or Mekari will line up across from Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen, who leads the defense with 37 pressures.

· Jacksonville’s offense has a 42.5% rush success rate (11th) but the Ravens have allowed -0.346 EPA/rush the last two games since acquiring LB Roquan Smith. Carolina gained only 2.1 yards per carry with fewer than 10 yards before contact on their 17 rushes against Baltimore’s defense last week.

· It will be up to Trevor Lawrence for the Jaguars to score points but he will likely be under pressure with his top wide receiver blanketed.

· Jaguars WR Christian Kirk has a 62% success rate (8th) and I think CB Marlon Humphrey follows him into the slot since he is the major threat on Jacksonville’s offense. Humphrey ranks 8th in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Ravens have a great pass rushing rotation after bringing in edge defender Jason Pierre-Paul and getting edge defender Tyus Bowser back from a torn Achilles during the 2021 season finale. Baltimore’s defense had a 10.8% sack rate last week.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 2.9 with a predicted total of 43.7.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Jaguars
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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