Baltimore Ravens @

Denver Broncos

Sun, Oct 3
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Denver Broncos PK, Total: 45

Game Analysis

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Baltimore (pk) at DENVER

The Ravens won on a historic 66-yard field goal last week, but the game shouldn’t have been that close. Baltimore averaged 2 yards per play more than Detroit and it should have been even more with Marquise Brown dropping two deep passes that could’ve been touchdowns. Lamar Jackson rushed for 8.3 yards per carry as the Lions started rookie LB Derrick Barnes last week and I expect Jackson to do similar damage against Broncos’ backup linebacker Justin Strnad. Ravens’ backup RT Patrick Mekari will struggle to contain edge defender Von Miller (3rd in pass rushing efficiency).

Denver TE Noah Fant averaged 1.64 yards per route run last year (4th) but he is off to a slow start to this season. However, Fant should be more involved with WRs Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (ACL) now out. Teddy Bridgewater will be looking for Fant in this matchup as the Ravens have surrendered a league-high 290 yards to opposing tight ends.

Denver’s offense could be without one or both starting guards this week. Graham Glasgow suffered a knee injury in the third quarter against the Jets and Dalton Risner went out soon after due to a foot problem. Baltimore’s interior defender Calais Campbell has 9 pressures (12th) and has the chance to dominate in this matchup.

Our model favors the Ravens by 0.4 with a predicted total of 43.2. The matchup favors Baltimore here but Denver applies to a 22-0 ATS early season unbeaten home team situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Broncos
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 31.7 41.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.3% 56.6%
  • Sack Rate 8.1% 3.7%
  • Int Rate 3.6% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.4% 19.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 55.2% 37.5%
  • NYPP 8.1 8.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.3 22.0
  • RB YPR 4.6 3.2
  • Stuff Rate 21.1% 34.4%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.7% 42.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 51.2% 50.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.7 3.6




Game

  • All Snaps 64.0 63.0
  • Early Down Succ 54.3% 55.7%
  • Succ Rate 49.6% 51.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 55.0% 41.2%
  • Yards Per Play 6.9 6.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.0 29.9
  • Run Ratio 49.9% 36.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -2.5 2.5
 
  • Points 27.3 28.3
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