Game Analysis

Lean – Baltimore (-7.5) over CLEVELAND

• Lamar Jackson threw a quick pass (under 2.5 seconds) on 66% of his attempts in Minnesota, and he will look to do the same on Sunday against Cleveland’s pass rush with a 10.3% sack rate (3rd).
• The Ravens are averaging 12% more yards per attempt against man coverage compared to zone (3rd), and Jackson has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense leading the NFL with a 40% man-coverage rate. Cleveland’s Cover 1 is susceptible to well-executed crossers, rub routes, and quarterback mobility.
• However, this game could have the highest sustained winds of any game this season, making the passing attack less impactful, and the Browns are conceding -0.20 EPA/rush (2nd).
• The wind would make it nearly impossible for Cleveland’s passing attack because Dillon Gabriel has a weak arm. Gabriel is averaging just 6.1 air yards per attempt (3rd-lowest) and has a -5.0% completion percentage versus expectation.
• Baltimore All-Pro CB Marlon Humphrey could be out, but he is allowing 10.2 yards per target this season compared to backup CB Chidobe Awuzie conceding 5.8 yards per target.
• Our model favors the Ravens by 10.8 with a predicted total of 38.9.