Game Analysis

Note: We released Cleveland as a Best Bet early in the week when the line was +10. The Browns are still a Best Bet at +8.5 or more.

1-Star Best Bet – *CLEVELAND (+10) over Baltimore

• Deshaun Watson’s Achilles is ruptured and he is out for the season. Jameis Winston will be under center for Cleveland’s offense this week and this is one of the rare occasions where the backup is an upgrade on the starter. Watson was only starting because the Browns had an incredible amount invested in him including 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick, and an unprecedented fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract.
• Winston is averaging 6.8 yppp since 2015 when he was drafted. Winston hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2019 but he has averaged 0.10 EPA/play in the last five seasons coming in as a backup. Watson was averaging -0.23 EPA/play. That difference equates to 11.7 points per game – if the problem with the Browns’ offense was Watson.
• Cleveland traded WR Amari Cooper but TE David Njoku had target shares of 30% and 29% over the last two weeks. Njoku has a favorable matchup on Sunday as the Ravens are surrendering 0.52 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th).
• Baltimore nickelback Marlon Humphrey is conceding only 0.56 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd) but he could miss this game, which would force safety Kyle Hamilton into the nickleback position. Hamilton is allowing 1.08 yards per cover snap in the slot (16th).
• The Browns have had both starting tackles in the lineup for only 37% of the pass-blocking snaps this season, but Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin are combining to allow a 6.9% pressure rate and should both be in uniform for this game. Wills and Conklin will limit Ravens edge defender Kyle Van Noy, who ranks 18th in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Baltimore’s yards per attempt against man coverage is just 88% of the yards per attempt versus zone (25th) and Lamar won’t have as many open receivers this week as Cleveland’s defense has a league-high 41% man-coverage rate.
• The Ravens tight ends have a 30% target share (3rd-highest) but the Browns’ defense has yielded only -0.09 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (5th).
• Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward has 45 forced incompletions in the last four seasons (7th) and he will contain WR Zay Flowers, whose 57% success rate ranks 17th.
• Prior to the season the Browns’ offense was considered to be better than average by the market and that unit could be close to preseason expectations if Jameis Winston plays at the level he’s played at in recent years. The question is if the issues with Cleveland’s offense fall directly on Watson, who has been historically bad this season (3.8 yards per pass play). Winston has averaged 6.9 yppp in his career and 6.1 yppp since he became mostly a backup starting in 2020. If he plays at that level then the Browns’ offense would be 7.3 points per game better than they’ve been, which would put them close to the league average. It’s possible that the offensive problems run deeper than Watson but it’s unlikely given the history of the offensive coaching staff and Winston’s proven level of production. The Browns still have a solid defense, and we rate them as being close to an average team with Watson now sidelined (even without Cooper).
• Our model is below market on Baltimore and feel this line should not be above 7 points. The model predicted total is 46.1 points

Cleveland is a 1-Star Best Bet at +8.5 points or more.