Baltimore Ravens @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 12
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 113
Odds: Cleveland Browns -2.5, Total: 42.5

Game Analysis

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CLEVELAND (-2.5) vs Baltimore

Lean – Over (42.5)

Lamar Jackson has been blitzed on 44% of his dropbacks over his last three games and averaged only 4.7 yppp in those contests against the Dolphins, Browns, and Steelers. Jackson had a season-low 30% of his attempts travel beyond the sticks last week as the Ravens look for answers against added pressure that likely won’t subside on Sunday. Myles Garrett has 14.0 sacks (2nd) and he will likely add more across from LT Alejandro Villanueva, who ranks 53rd in pass blocking efficiency out of 56 qualifying tackles. And Baltimore right tackle Patrick Mekari will not suit up this week due to a hand injury. Marquise Brown is averaging 1.99 yards per route run (14th) but he will be contained by Cleveland CB Greg Newsome, who is conceding a reception every 13.3 cover snaps (13th). The Ravens will feature their 7th-rated ground game versus a Browns rush defense ranked 29th and hope that it takes some of the pressure of the pass attack.

The Browns lead the league in targeting TEs on 31% of passes and Baltimore’s defense has surrendered 801 yards to opposing tight ends (29th). Baker Mayfield will have to get the ball out quickly to his TEs underneath as edge defender Tyus Bowser ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency and Cleveland backup RT Blake Hance is surrendering a 9% pressure rate. The Ravens will be without Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey (torn pectoral muscle) and he is worth about a point according to our metrics.

Our model favors the Browns by 1.8 points, with a predicted total of 46.1 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Browns
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.00 38.25
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 44.4%
  • Sack Rate 9.2% 5.7%
  • Int Rate 3.3% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.0% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.7% 51.2%
  • NYPP 6.18 7.12



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.00 21.08
  • RB YPR 3.77 3.96
  • Stuff Rate 18.5% 32.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.3% 44.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.1% 53.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.60 4.00




Game

  • All Snaps 71.00 59.33
  • Early Down Succ 55.7% 49.0%
  • Succ Rate 50.8% 44.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.9% 51.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.46 6.01
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.16 27.01
  • Run Ratio 45.1% 35.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.67 -0.67
 
  • Points 23.25 21.92
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