Baltimore Ravens @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Cleveland Browns +10, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (49.5) – Baltimore (-10) vs CLEVELAND

The Browns beat the Ravens in week 4 but proceeded to lose their next four games and this season has been seen as a disappointment based on how they finished 2018. Although, Cleveland’s offensive regression is mostly the result of a difficult schedule. The Browns have faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL this season and the tough slate will continue this week. The Ravens defensive ranks near the middle-of-the-pack allowing 5.5 yards per play for the year but have been significantly better in the second half after trading for Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters and getting cornerback Jimmy Smith back from injury. Baltimore’s defense is conceding just 4.8 yards per play since week 9 (5th) and their cornerbacks combine to surrender only 0.92 yards per cover snap with Peters and Smith in the lineup. Excellent cornerbacks are particularly useful against Cleveland because Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham make of up 53% of the team’s total targets. This is a much better Ravens’ defense that the Browns will be facing this time around.

The Ravens have the league’s top-rated ground game by our numbers and the rushing numbers should be even better this week against a Browns rush defense that is ranked last. Lamar Jackson has more than doubled the expected rushing points added of any other quarterback and Mark Ingram leads all running backs in expected points added as well. However, it’s worth noting that Baltimore dropped 0.4 yards per rush in the second time they faced the Bengals, which is the only team to have seen their scheme twice thus far.

Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry will likely have another frustrating game in this matchup and I expect the Ravens to clinch home field advantage with a win on Sunday. Our model makes Baltimore an 11.4-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but road favorites on a win streak of 8 games or more are just 8-34 ATS from week 13 on and double-digit road favorites are a losing proposition in general in the NFL for many years. I’ll pass on the side but the model shows value on the Under and this game applies to a very good 755-543-16 Under situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Browns


  • Pass Plays 29.6 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.1% 42.2%
  • Sack Rate 6.0% 6.5%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.3% 44.6%
  • NYPP 7.2 6.0


  • Rush Plays 36.5 21.4
  • RB YPR 4.6 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 14.4% 26.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 55.2% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.2% 40.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.6 4.1


  • All Snaps 66.1 58.5
  • Early Down Succ 55.2% 46.3%
  • Succ Rate 53.0% 43.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.6% 45.7%
  • Yards Per Play 6.2 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 26.5
  • Run Ratio 55.4% 35.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.2 27.2
  • Game Control 9.1 -9.1
  • Points 33.7 18.4
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