Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (49.5) – Baltimore (-10) vs CLEVELAND

The Browns beat the Ravens in week 4 but proceeded to lose their next four games and this season has been seen as a disappointment based on how they finished 2018. Although, Cleveland’s offensive regression is mostly the result of a difficult schedule. The Browns have faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL this season and the tough slate will continue this week. The Ravens defensive ranks near the middle-of-the-pack allowing 5.5 yards per play for the year but have been significantly better in the second half after trading for Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters and getting cornerback Jimmy Smith back from injury. Baltimore’s defense is conceding just 4.8 yards per play since week 9 (5th) and their cornerbacks combine to surrender only 0.92 yards per cover snap with Peters and Smith in the lineup. Excellent cornerbacks are particularly useful against Cleveland because Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham make of up 53% of the team’s total targets. This is a much better Ravens’ defense that the Browns will be facing this time around.

The Ravens have the league’s top-rated ground game by our numbers and the rushing numbers should be even better this week against a Browns rush defense that is ranked last. Lamar Jackson has more than doubled the expected rushing points added of any other quarterback and Mark Ingram leads all running backs in expected points added as well. However, it’s worth noting that Baltimore dropped 0.4 yards per rush in the second time they faced the Bengals, which is the only team to have seen their scheme twice thus far.

Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry will likely have another frustrating game in this matchup and I expect the Ravens to clinch home field advantage with a win on Sunday. Our model makes Baltimore an 11.4-point favorite, with a predicted total of 47.2 points, but road favorites on a win streak of 8 games or more are just 8-34 ATS from week 13 on and double-digit road favorites are a losing proposition in general in the NFL for many years. I’ll pass on the side but the model shows value on the Under and this game applies to a very good 755-543-16 Under situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Browns

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 29.6 37.1
Succ Pass Plays 51.1% 42.2%
Sack Rate 6.0% 6.5%
Int Rate 1.8% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.1% 19.3%
Big Pass Yards 42.3% 44.6%
NYPP 7.2 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 36.5 21.4
RB YPR 4.6 4.1
Stuff Rate 14.4% 26.1%
Succ Rush Plays 55.2% 44.6%
Big Rush Yards 49.2% 40.2%
Yards Per Rush 5.6 4.1

Game

All Snaps 66.1 58.5
Early Down Succ 55.2% 46.3%
Succ Rate 53.0% 43.9%
Big Yards Rate 46.6% 45.7%
Yards Per Play 6.2 5.4
Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.2%
Time Per Play (sec) 31.4 26.5
Run Ratio 55.4% 35.9%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 27.2
Game Control 9.1 -9.1

Points 33.7 18.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIA	59 – 10 W	32.5	74.1% / 37.1%	3.7% / 8.6%	0.0% / 6.3%	14.0 / 5.1	58.7% / 33.3%	13.0% / 50.0%	5.8 / 1.8	73 / 47	65.5% / 37.8%	64.4% / 36.2%	66.7% / 48.5%	8.8 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.1%	63.0% / 25.5%	31.6 / 22.6
2	ARI	23 – 17 W	6.7	46.2% / 44.2%	5.1% / 7.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.7	45.5% / 36.4%	15.2% / 36.4%	5.5 / 1.8	72 / 54	47.3% / 48.8%	45.8% / 42.6%	62.3% / 65.9%	6.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	45.8% / 20.4%	28.7 / 20.0
3	@KC	28 – 33 L	-7.1	34.8% / 57.9%	6.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 9.6	71.9% / 46.2%	6.3% / 26.9%	6.3 / 5.4	78 / 64	50.8% / 55.8%	50.0% / 53.1%	37.6% / 49.5%	5.8 / 7.9	0.0% / 0.0%	41.0% / 40.6%	26.0 / 25.5
4	CLE	25 – 40 L	-7.4	52.6% / 50.0%	10.5% / 3.1%	5.9% / 3.2%	5.8 / 10.5	58.6% / 51.7%	13.8% / 24.1%	6.0 / 6.7	67 / 61	59.3% / 52.2%	55.2% / 50.8%	39.7% / 55.3%	5.9 / 8.7	1.5% / 0.0%	43.3% / 47.5%	27.8 / 26.2
5	@PIT	26 – 23 W	2.9	33.3% / 40.6%	15.2% / 3.1%	10.7% / 3.2%	4.2 / 6.0	55.0% / 52.6%	25.0% / 15.8%	3.5 / 4.1	73 / 51	45.6% / 48.8%	45.2% / 45.1%	22.0% / 42.8%	3.8 / 5.3	0.0% / 2.0%	54.8% / 37.3%	33.3 / 32.7
6	CIN	23 – 17 W	7.4	55.9% / 43.9%	2.9% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.7 / 5.3	58.1% / 21.4%	18.6% / 42.9%	6.3 / 2.4	77 / 55	59.3% / 36.4%	57.1% / 38.2%	45.1% / 44.8%	6.5 / 4.5	1.3% / 0.0%	55.8% / 25.5%	25.5 / 27.3
7	@SEA	30 – 16 W	2.9	28.6% / 38.1%	4.8% / 2.4%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.7 / 5.7	42.9% / 57.7%	14.3% / 26.9%	5.7 / 4.1	56 / 68	37.5% / 41.2%	37.5% / 45.6%	62.1% / 49.0%	6.1 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	62.5% / 38.2%	23.9 / 25.2
9	NE	37 – 20 W	8.4	62.5% / 52.1%	4.2% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	6.8 / 5.6	48.8% / 64.7%	17.1% / 11.8%	5.1 / 4.4	65 / 65	56.9% / 59.6%	53.8% / 55.4%	39.5% / 19.0%	5.7 / 5.3	3.1% / 1.5%	63.1% / 26.2%	20.0 / 34.7
10	@CIN	49 – 13 W	22.7	69.6% / 40.6%	4.3% / 6.3%	4.5% / 3.3%	10.6 / 4.7	65.2% / 62.5%	17.4% / 30.0%	5.9 / 3.9	46 / 72	70.3% / 56.6%	67.4% / 52.8%	46.4% / 29.6%	8.2 / 4.3	0.0% / 2.8%	50.0% / 55.6%	31.1 / 31.4
11	HOU	41 – 7 W	14.8	60.7% / 40.5%	3.6% / 18.9%	0.0% / 3.3%	8.1 / 3.0	47.2% / 45.0%	16.7% / 15.0%	7.3 / 6.1	64 / 57	55.8% / 48.8%	53.1% / 42.1%	52.1% / 37.9%	7.7 / 4.1	0.0% / 1.8%	56.3% / 35.1%	36.2 / 28.2
12	@LA	45 – 6 W	21.6	57.7% / 46.2%	11.5% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.5 / 5.1	56.3% / 22.2%	4.2% / 33.3%	5.9 / 2.4	74 / 48	55.6% / 45.9%	56.8% / 41.7%	52.7% / 44.8%	6.5 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	64.9% / 18.8%	30.6 / 24.1
13	SF	20 – 17 W	0.3	37.5% / 43.5%	4.2% / 8.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.8	60.5% / 41.4%	10.5% / 17.2%	4.7 / 6.0	62 / 52	53.1% / 44.7%	51.6% / 42.3%	35.7% / 53.2%	4.6 / 6.4	1.6% / 1.9%	61.3% / 55.8%	33.1 / 22.9
14	@BUF	24 – 17 W	6.7	46.2% / 20.0%	3.8% / 13.3%	4.0% / 0.0%	5.3 / 2.3	54.5% / 43.5%	12.1% / 26.1%	3.6 / 4.5	59 / 68	58.7% / 30.0%	50.8% / 27.9%	33.9% / 54.1%	4.4 / 3.1	0.0% / 1.5%	55.9% / 33.8%	31.6 / 26.4
15	NYJ	42 – 21 W	15.2	56.0% / 36.4%	4.0% / 3.0%	0.0% / 3.1%	8.5 / 6.3	50.0% / 45.8%	17.6% / 8.3%	6.4 / 4.3	59 / 57	57.1% / 41.5%	52.5% / 40.4%	56.7% / 44.8%	7.3 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.8%	57.6% / 42.1%	29.5 / 33.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	TEN	13 – 43 L	-7.1	39.5% / 35.7%	11.6% / 14.3%	7.9% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.7	45.0% / 50.0%	5.0% / 21.4%	5.1 / 4.4	63 / 56	49.0% / 50.0%	41.3% / 42.9%	47.4% / 67.8%	5.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	31.7% / 50.0%	22.6 / 34.4
2	@NYJ	23 – 3 W	12.5	34.2% / 25.7%	7.9% / 11.4%	2.9% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.8	28.6% / 41.7%	38.1% / 37.5%	3.3 / 3.9	59 / 59	33.3% / 39.5%	32.2% / 32.2%	74.4% / 42.4%	6.4 / 4.4	0.0% / 1.7%	35.6% / 40.7%	33.6 / 18.0
3	LA	13 – 20 L	-1.5	38.5% / 47.5%	7.7% / 5.0%	2.8% / 5.3%	4.5 / 6.4	37.5% / 50.0%	25.0% / 16.7%	4.0 / 3.8	63 / 64	40.0% / 51.0%	38.1% / 48.4%	44.1% / 24.1%	4.3 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.6%	38.1% / 37.5%	33.1 / 26.4
4	@BAL	40 – 25 W	7.4	50.0% / 52.6%	3.1% / 10.5%	3.2% / 5.9%	10.5 / 5.8	51.7% / 58.6%	24.1% / 13.8%	6.7 / 6.0	61 / 67	52.2% / 59.3%	50.8% / 55.2%	55.3% / 39.7%	8.7 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.5%	47.5% / 43.3%	26.2 / 27.8
5	@SF	3 – 31 L	-18.3	25.0% / 41.9%	14.3% / 6.5%	8.3% / 0.0%	2.8 / 5.5	33.3% / 37.5%	22.2% / 20.0%	5.7 / 6.9	46 / 71	34.3% / 40.4%	28.3% / 39.4%	71.1% / 52.0%	3.9 / 6.3	4.3% / 0.0%	39.1% / 56.3%	26.1 / 34.0
6	SEA	28 – 32 L	3.3	45.9% / 61.1%	0.0% / 8.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.9	50.0% / 52.6%	20.8% / 15.8%	6.5 / 4.5	61 / 74	48.0% / 61.0%	47.5% / 56.8%	48.5% / 46.9%	6.7 / 6.1	1.6% / 1.4%	39.3% / 51.4%	36.0 / 31.8
8	@NE	13 – 27 L	-12.1	38.9% / 43.6%	13.9% / 7.7%	3.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 6.1	59.1% / 33.3%	22.7% / 40.7%	7.2 / 2.9	58 / 66	53.3% / 39.6%	46.6% / 39.4%	59.7% / 52.8%	5.3 / 4.8	3.4% / 0.0%	37.9% / 40.9%	25.2 / 36.2
9	@DEN	19 – 24 L	-6.2	45.5% / 39.1%	4.5% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.6	37.9% / 45.0%	20.7% / 15.0%	3.1 / 6.4	73 / 43	44.6% / 46.9%	42.5% / 41.9%	38.2% / 71.9%	4.8 / 7.0	0.0% / 2.3%	39.7% / 46.5%	34.2 / 23.4
10	BUF	19 – 16 W	2.5	47.5% / 42.9%	5.0% / 2.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.5 / 6.2	53.8% / 40.0%	30.8% / 15.0%	5.7 / 4.2	66 / 62	53.8% / 46.8%	50.0% / 41.9%	32.1% / 42.4%	5.6 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	39.4% / 32.3%	24.8 / 24.5
11	PIT	21 – 7 W	9.7	30.3% / 41.7%	3.0% / 8.3%	0.0% / 9.1%	5.7 / 3.7	37.1% / 37.5%	31.4% / 37.5%	3.0 / 3.6	68 / 64	33.3% / 48.0%	33.8% / 40.6%	54.6% / 28.8%	4.3 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	51.5% / 25.0%	41.5 / 21.8
12	MIA	41 – 24 W	16.5	60.0% / 37.2%	2.9% / 9.3%	2.9% / 5.1%	9.1 / 4.5	59.4% / 40.0%	6.3% / 15.0%	4.6 / 4.6	67 / 63	62.1% / 38.3%	59.7% / 38.1%	35.3% / 25.7%	7.0 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	47.8% / 31.7%	32.2 / 28.5
13	@PIT	13 – 20 L	-1.7	38.5% / 50.0%	12.8% / 4.5%	2.9% / 4.8%	4.4 / 9.0	50.0% / 46.9%	12.5% / 18.8%	4.4 / 3.9	63 / 54	44.9% / 52.4%	42.9% / 48.1%	39.1% / 54.2%	4.4 / 6.0	1.6% / 0.0%	38.1% / 59.3%	26.4 / 30.8
14	CIN	27 – 19 W	3.3	40.0% / 51.2%	4.0% / 4.9%	8.3% / 2.6%	7.5 / 6.6	48.1% / 58.1%	18.5% / 12.9%	5.4 / 5.8	52 / 72	41.0% / 62.5%	44.2% / 54.2%	61.6% / 42.6%	6.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	51.9% / 43.1%	26.2 / 26.0
15	@ARI	24 – 38 L	-9.1	52.3% / 56.0%	2.3% / 0.0%	2.3% / 4.0%	5.5 / 8.8	56.5% / 57.1%	4.3% / 17.1%	6.6 / 6.5	67 / 60	51.0% / 58.0%	53.7% / 56.7%	35.1% / 46.5%	5.9 / 7.4	1.5% / 0.0%	34.3% / 58.3%	25.5 / 32.3

Baltimore Ravens @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Dec 22

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis