Game Analysis

Lean – Baltimore (+8.5) over CINCINNATI

Lean – Under (40.5)

Lean – Cincinnati Team Total Under (24.5 -120)

Strong Opinion – Hayden Hurst (Cinc) Under 29.5 Receiving Yards to 28

· Joe Burrow torched the Ravens for 10.3 yppp in two games last season and it prompted a massive change for Baltimore’s defense in the offseason, as the Ravens switched defensive coordinators from Don Martindale to Mike Macdonald.

· Martindale is one of the most aggressive defensive coordinators in the NFL as we’ve seen this year with the Giants. Martindale’s New York defense has a league-high 40% blitz rate. However, blitzing Burrow and leaving cornerbacks on an island against Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is going to surrender some explosive receptions down the sidelines. Chase and Higgins had 581 receiving yards in two games against Baltimore’s defense in 2021.

· Mike Macdonald’s Ravens take a more conservative approach using more simulated pressures. Chase and Higgins only caught two passes combined with 20+ air yards in two games versus defense this season.

· Burrow averaged only 5.5 yppp against Baltimore’s defense in the first game this year and just 4.6 yppp last week which could’ve been even lower as Next Gen Stats had Ja’Marr Chase’s 26-yard touchdown grab as the most improbable reception of his career.

· Cincinnati’s offense scored 21 points off Anthony Brown turnovers last week but had only a 33% success rate. The Ravens brought in Macdonald to limit Joe Burrow and he has fulfilled that goal thus far.

· Baltimore starting cornerback Marcus Peters will be back in the lineup this week opposite cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who ranks 4th in coverage grade by PFF. The two star corners will limit Chase and Higgins on Sunday night.

· Bengals slot WR Tyler Boyd has a 60% success rate (7th) but he will be contained on the inside by Ravens first round pick Kyle Hamilton, who saw 5 targets on 42 cover snaps last week but allowed just 22 receiving yards.

· Baltimore’s defense is conceding just 6.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (8th) and they will shut down Hayden Hurst. Burrow threw 5 passes to Hurst last week and it netted Cincinnati’s offense only 14 yards. I do not expect Zac Taylor to draw many plays up for Hurst this time around.

· Joe Burrow’s pressure rate dropped from 33.3% in 2021 to 26.5% this season after changing four starters on the offensive line this summer. Burrow also dropped his sack rate from 8.9% last year to 6.3% in 2022.

· However, two of Cincinnati’s offensive line additions will be out for the playoffs. Right guard Alex Cappa had his ankle rolled in the pocket late in the third quarter last game and right tackle La’el Collins tore his ACL and MCL.

· Bengals backup RG Max Scharping ranked 43rd in pass blocking efficiency through the first half of last season before the Texans benched him. Backup RT Hakeem Adeniji surrendered 6 sacks in the postseason last year.

· The Ravens defense has a 7.5% sack rate (8th) and they should be even higher in this matchup versus Cincinnati’s backup right side of the offensive line.

· Baltimore’s trade for linebacker Roquan Smith in the middle of the season was a game changer. The Ravens allowed a 45% success rate without Smith (27th) and they conceded just a 39% success rate with Smith (5th).

· Baltimore’s defense ranks 3rd in EPA/rush allowed excluding fumbles since the trade for Smith. I do not expect Joe Mixon to gain many yards on the ground in this game. Mixon might be more important as a receiver with the Ravens forcing Burrow to hit his checkdown.

· Tyler Huntley finally got in a full practice on Friday and said he’s about 90 percent healthy after sitting out last week’s regular-season finale against Cincinnati. Huntley is on track to play but will likely be sharing snaps at quarterback with Anthony Brown. There’s a lot of ambiguity for Baltimore’s offense in this game.

· Huntley and Brown are mobile quarterbacks, but they do not pose nearly the same threat as Lamar Jackson. The Ravens averaged 0.058 EPA/rush during the first 12 weeks this year and only -0.011 EPA/rush after week 13 with Jackson out with a PCL injury.

· Mark Andrews is averaging nearly 9 targets per game when Huntley gets the majority of snaps under center since the start of last season and Bengals defense really doesn’t have an answer for the All-Pro tight end. Andrews gained 9.9 yards per target against Cincinnati’s defense this season.

· Ronnie Stanley was an All-Pro left tackle for Baltimore in 2019, then played in just seven games during the next two seasons and had only 298 pass blocking snaps this year conceding just 16 pressures. Stanley has been fully in the starting lineup since week 14 and he will line up across from Bengals edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Cincinnati interior defender DJ Reader has 15 pressures since week 11 (23rd) after coming back from an MCL injury he picked up in the third game of the season, but he will be limited versus Ben Powers, who leads all guards in pass blocking efficiency.

· The Bengals do rank 5th in EPA/rush allowed since Reader came back into the lineup, but the Ravens only real hope is to make this game ugly by running the ball and reducing the number of drives for both offenses.

· Our model favors Cincinnati by just 5.8 points, with a predicted total of 39.8 points.

Lean with Baltimore, the Under and the Bengals Team Total Under 24.5 -120.