Baltimore Ravens @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 465
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -7, Total: 41.5

Game Analysis

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CINCINNATI (-7) vs Baltimore

The Ravens will start career backup QB Josh Johnson under center on Sunday. Johnson averaged 5.2 yppp for Washington in 2018 and resurfaced this year for the Jets averaging 6.8 yppp, with a good chunk of that production coming against soft defenses with the Jets trailing by multiple scores against the Colts. We have Johnson 7.7 points worse than Lamar Jackson. Johnson will not have time in the pocket as Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has 63 pressures (5th) and he will line up across from LT Alejandro Villanueva, who┬áranks 45th in pass blocking efficiency out of 52 qualifying tackles. Baltimore’s 6th-rated ground game will be the focus versus Cincinnati’s rush defense ranked 28th.

The Ravens will get starting safety Chuck Clark back on the field this week, but the secondary will still be without four of their top 6 cornerbacks entering the season against an excellent Bengals wide receiver group. WR Ja’Marr Chase has 11 deep receptions (4th) and he will get behind backup CB Kevon Seymour, who surrendered 2.03 yards per cover snap last week. WR Tee Higgins is averaging 2.21 yards per route run (9th) and he will line up across from Baltimore CB Anthony Averett, who is being targeted every 5.5 cover snaps (5th-most). Joe Burrow could see some collapsing pockets as backup RG Fred Johnson surrendered a sack as well as a quarterback hit last week, and he will struggle with interior defender Tyus Bowser (13.4% pressure rate).

Our model favors the Bengals by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 39.0 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Bengals
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.64 37.50
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.1% 45.9%
  • Sack Rate 8.6% 5.5%
  • Int Rate 2.8% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.0% 20.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.0% 49.9%
  • NYPP 6.08 7.06



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.93 21.93
  • RB YPR 3.87 3.88
  • Stuff Rate 18.2% 30.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.6% 44.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.4% 49.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.68 3.93




Game

  • All Snaps 70.57 59.43
  • Early Down Succ 55.7% 49.7%
  • Succ Rate 50.7% 45.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.5% 49.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.46 5.91
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.33 27.81
  • Run Ratio 43.8% 36.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -0.34 0.34
 
  • Points 23.64 22.71
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