Baltimore Ravens @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Nov 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals +10, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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Note: The Under was released as a Strong Opinion earlier in the week when the total was 45.5 points. I still lean Under at less than 45 points.

Strong Opinion – Under (45.5) – Baltimore at CINCINNATI

Lean – Cincinnati (+10)

Andy Dalton was benched during the bye week after ranking 3rd-worst in completion percentage versus expectation among starting quarterbacks. Still, we’re making a 2-point downgrade to Cincinnati’s offense for rookie quarterback Ryan Finley. I expect Zac Taylor to design plays to get the ball out of the 4th-round pick’s hands quickly as Dalton already had the 2nd-fastest time to throw in the NFL. Finley will not have star receiver AJ Green, as he’s being held out another week even though he practiced a bit this week. That leaves the bulk of the receiving load on Tyler Boyd in the slot but Marlon Humphrey is one of the league’s most talented nickelbacks and the Bengals’ underwhelming outside receivers will struggle against Marcus Peters, conceding just 0.80 yards per cover snap (11th), and Jimmy Smith, who surrendered only 13 yards on 5 targets in his first game back from injury last week.

On the other side of the ball, I expect the Ravens to pound the rock with their 2nd-rated ground game versus a Bengals rush defense ranked last. Lamar Jackson should have time in the pocket to find tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Hollywood Brown, who are averaging 2.49 and 2.29 yards per route run, respectively. Geno Atkins is ranked 5th in pass rush efficiency among interior defenders but he will be limited by right guard Marshal Yanda, who has allowed just 6 pressures (3rd-fewest).

Ryan Finley will face a very tough secondary in his first NFL start and Baltimore’s offense is going to eat up clock by running the ball all game after putting up 269 rushing yards the last time these teams met. Our model favors the Ravens by 10.3 points, so the line has adjusted properly for the Bengals’ change at quarterback, but I’ll lean with the Bengals based on the situation.

Bad teams off a bye week tend to be good bets and losing teams off a bye are 30-6 ATS as home dogs of more than 5 points against teams not off a bye week. Baltimore upset New England last week and a letdown can be expected. In fact, the Ravens apply to a 16-54-1 ATS big road favorite letdown situation and double-digit road favorites coming off a home win are just 32-72-2 ATS (that applied to SF in their 3-point win at Arizona last week).

The Under is the stronger play, as the model projects just 42.3 total points and this game applies to an under angle that is 204-117-2 since 2012 and 742-531-16 since 1980. The Under is a Strong Opinion at 45 points or higher (and certainly still lean Under at less than 45 points).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Ravens
  • Bengals
BAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.8 38.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.5% 45.5%
  • Sack Rate 6.6% 4.5%
  • Int Rate 2.1% 2.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 20.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 43.7% 47.4%
  • NYPP 7.0 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 37.4 19.3
  • RB YPR 4.5 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 15.4% 29.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.9% 45.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.6% 33.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.5 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 70.1 58.1
  • Early Down Succ 52.8% 47.6%
  • Succ Rate 51.1% 45.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.9% 46.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.1 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.6 25.8
  • Run Ratio 53.7% 32.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.1 26.8
  • Game Control 5.8 -5.8
 
  • Points 31.4 22.0
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