Game Analysis

1-Star 6.5 pt Teaser (-130) – Kansas City (-1.5) with Buffalo (+7.5) at -2 and +7.5 or more only

Strong Opinion – Josh Allen Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-125) to -135

Lean – BUFFALO (+1) over Baltimore

Lean – Over (51.5)

• Ravens RB Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson combined for 267 yards on the ground last week. Baltimore’s offense used multiple backs or tight ends on 89% of the snap versus the Steelers.
• The Ravens could opt for the frequent usage of heavy personnel this week if they are once again without WR Zay Flowers, who averaged 2.25 yards per route run (13th) and is worth 0.6 points according to our metrics.
• Baltimore’s offense had a 75% heavy personnel rate in the regular season game versus Buffalo, but the Bills do not like to put three linebackers on the field – instead preferring to play nickelback Taron Johnson for the majority of snaps. Buffalo’s defense had a league-low 4% base personnel rate and, even against the Ravens’ heavy personnel, it was just 25%. Baltimore’s offense rushed for 247 yards in the 35-10 victory.
• The Bills defense has a 64% middle-field open coverage rate (4th-highest) but the Ravens dominated the two-high with the ground game and passes to running backs as Justice Hill and Derrick Henry combined for 9 receptions in week 4.
• However, Buffalo’s defense switched to a more aggressive man coverage in the second half and it proved effective. Baltimore’s offense averaged 0.54 EPA/play in the first half versus the Bills compared to -0.04 EPA/play second half. I expect Buffalo’s defense to be unconventionally man-heavy on Sunday night.
• Ravens’ tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely as well as WR Rashod Bateman all averaged fewer yards per route run versus man coverage than zone this year. Baltimore’s only receiver averaging more yards per route run against man is WR Zay Flowers, who will be banged up at best with the knee injury.
• Buffalo’s offense used at least 6 offensive linemen on 22% of snaps last week and the Bills ran for 210 yards against the Broncos.
• However, the Ravens are allowing a league-low 32% rush success rate, and I expect Buffalo’s approach on offense to be different this week by relying much more on Josh Allen.
• Shawn Syed from Sumer Sports pointed out the Bills’ passing attack uses 4×1 (four eligible receivers to one side) to cause chaos in opposing defenses’ zone rules because the spacing is so different from 99% of plays. The best way to approach 4×1 sets from a defensive standpoint is to play man coverage which Baltimore already does at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.
• The Ravens’ defense going man-heavy is most likely to positively affect WR Keon Coleman, who has a 26% target rate versus man compared to a 13% target rate against zone (4th-largest gap).
• Much has been made about the Ravens safeties swap improving the defense in the second half of the season, but Baltimore has not gone against an offense rated above average by the betting market since before their bye versus the Bengals on November 7th. The Ravens surrendered 34 points on that day, which prompted them to switch their safeties. Buffalo’s offense averaged 0.08 more EPA/play than Cincinnati this season.
• The Bills were blown out by the Ravens earlier this year, but I think it is extremely unlikely to happen again as only 5 of Josh Allen’s 24 losses in the last 4 seasons have been by more than 7.5 points because he can ratchet it up when down multiple scores against prevent defense.
• The market is implying that Baltimore’s win probability is 51.5%. Multiply 51.5% by 5/24 (21%) and you get 11%. I don’t think the Bills expected cover rate for +7.5 is a full 89%, but it’s above 80% and the breakeven point for covering a 6-point (-130) teaser leg is only 75.2%. The teaser partner, Kansas City, is also above 80% to cover their part of the teaser.
• Our model favors the Bills by 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 54.7 points.

Buffalo is part of our 1-Star Best Bet 6.5-point teaser with KC (at +7.5 or better and -2 or better)

Strong Opinion – Josh Allen Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-125) to -135

• For this game I have it narrowed down to Josh Allen over completions or passing attempts because Baltimore’s defense is a pass funnel.
• The Ravens rank #1 in our rush defense metrics and they are allowing a league-low success rate.
• They play a very matchup-specific defense which is difficult to predict for Buffalo since they have no clear #1 receiver. Thus, I’m avoiding receptions over props and sticking with Josh Allen spreading the ball around based on the look.
• Allen is 8-3 to the over on 32.5 passing attempts in 11 career playoff starts.
• Allen is 8-3 to the over on 21.5 completions in playoff starts. Two of the three losses were 21 completions.
• In both attempts and completions, the three games he went under, the Bills won in a blowout, which is unlikely tonight.
• Baltimore’s defense ranks 8th in completion percentage allowed.
• Baltimore’s defense allows the 3rd-most passing attempts allowed per game.
• Allen is 63.6% this season with OC Joe Brady, 31.5 * 0.636 is 20.0 implying the pass attempts is better than the completions unless we expect Allen to have a higher completion % than normal tonight which I don’t see a reason to believe.
• The deciding factor for me is the Ravens are allowing the 8th-most air yards per throw. This checks out with the completion percentage allowed. They take away the stuff underneath better than most teams while allowing you to take chances downfield, particularly to CB Brandon Stephens.