Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – BUFFALO (-2.5) over Baltimore

Marquise Brown Under 4.5 Receptions (-125 odds) good to -150 odds

Josh Allen completed four of his five passes with 20+ air yards for 129 yards and a touchdown last week and I expect him to look deep again on Saturday night with slot receiver Cole Beasley likely held in check. Beasley is averaging 2.31 yards per route run in the slot this season, which is nearly a half yard more than 2^nd best slot receiver Cooper Kupp and unsustainably high. Beasley has also been banged-up with a knee injury and he will line up across from Marlon Humphrey, who has been much better as a nickleback. Humphrey allowed only 0.95 yards per slot cover snap (3rd) but surrendered 1.30 yards per cover snap when lined up on the outside. CB Jimmy Smith played 41% of the defensive snaps last week (highest since week 9) and is conceding only 0.37 yards per cover snap this season. I expect Humphrey to be the nickelback with Smith getting healthier to play on the outside opposite Marcus Peters. Stefon Diggs averaged 2.51 yards per route run (5th) and should be featured in a downfield passing approach. Baltimore’s defense uses man coverage the second-most in the NFL and Diggs has a 36% target share versus man coverage. Josh Allen will utilize his scrambling ability (20 rushes in two career playoff games) instead of looking for Beasley underneath and should find Diggs downfield. RT Daryl Williams is conceding just a 3.2% pressure rate and he will limit Ravens’ Pro Bowl edge defender Matthew Judon. However, LG Ike Boettger ranked 53rd out of 58 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and he will have trouble staying in front of Pro Bowl interior defender Calais Campbell.

Buffalo’s defense surrendered 136 yards on 17 targets to the Colts’ tight ends last week and I expect Lamar Jackson to feature his TEs in this game given the limited time he’s likely to have in the pocket. Backup tackle DJ Fluker (nursing a knee injury) is allowing an 11% pressure rate since taking over for the injured Ronnie Stanley and will struggle across from Bills’ edge defender Jerry Hughes (9th in pass rushing efficiency). TE Mark Andrews averaged 2.00 yards per route run (3rd) and the Bills allow 7.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends. Marquise Brown had 25 targets on deep passes this season (9th) but Pro Bowl CB Tre’Davious White is conceding just one reception every 14.3 cover snaps (7th).

Our model favors the Bills by 3.4 points, with a predicted total of 50.3 points, and Baltimore applies to a 6-30 ATS playoff road team situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Ravens
Bills

BAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 27.5 38.9
Succ Pass Plays 44.6% 46.5%
Sack Rate 7.7% 6.1%
Int Rate 2.9% 2.0%
Deep Pass Rate 20.4% 17.2%
Big Pass Yards 40.4% 30.3%
NYPP 6.3 5.6

Rush

Rush Plays 34.7 23.8
RB YPR 5.0 4.5
Stuff Rate 16.5% 18.4%
Succ Rush Plays 54.4% 47.1%
Big Rush Yards 49.8% 40.2%
Yards Per Rush 5.6 4.5

Game

All Snaps 62.2 62.7
Early Down Succ 51.0% 50.2%
Succ Rate 50.0% 46.6%
Big Yards Rate 46.8% 35.1%
Yards Per Play 5.9 5.1
Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.6 27.6
Run Ratio 55.5% 38.2%
Starting Field Pos 31.2 25.7
Game Control 6.5 -6.5

Points 28.7 18.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CLE	38 – 6 W	16.2	57.1% / 36.6%	7.1% / 4.9%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.6 / 4.1	40.0% / 48.1%	26.7% / 18.5%	3.6 / 5.1	58 / 68	47.8% / 48.1%	48.3% / 41.2%	50.4% / 49.3%	6.5 / 4.5	1.7% / 2.9%	51.7% / 39.7%	43.8 / 21.3
2	@HOU	33 – 16 W	8.9	46.4% / 55.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.3 / 6.3	45.9% / 35.3%	5.4% / 17.6%	6.2 / 3.0	65 / 57	48.9% / 54.3%	46.2% / 49.1%	58.0% / 28.0%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.8%	56.9% / 29.8%	27.8 / 23.8
3	KC	20 – 34 L	-8.9	34.4% / 69.0%	12.5% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	2.2 / 9.2	66.7% / 48.4%	0.0% / 25.8%	7.5 / 4.3	53 / 73	52.4% / 58.6%	47.2% / 60.3%	41.2% / 41.6%	4.3 / 7.1	1.9% / 1.4%	39.6% / 42.5%	29.4 / 27.5
4	@WAS	31 – 17 W	11.5	41.7% / 41.7%	4.2% / 6.3%	8.7% / 0.0%	8.6 / 5.7	46.9% / 50.0%	15.6% / 18.2%	4.5 / 3.1	56 / 70	43.9% / 46.3%	44.6% / 44.3%	53.7% / 25.9%	6.3 / 4.9	0.0% / 1.4%	57.1% / 31.4%	30.5 / 27.3
5	CIN	27 – 3 W	15.6	36.8% / 32.4%	2.6% / 18.9%	2.7% / 3.3%	4.5 / 3.6	45.8% / 28.6%	16.7% / 21.4%	6.7 / 2.5	62 / 65	38.6% / 32.6%	40.3% / 30.8%	42.2% / 12.7%	5.4 / 3.2	0.0% / 3.1%	38.7% / 43.1%	32.3 / 26.1
6	@PHI	30 – 28 W	12.5	40.0% / 32.6%	10.0% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 3.7	48.6% / 66.7%	24.3% / 22.2%	4.9 / 10.8	67 / 64	49.0% / 46.9%	44.8% / 42.2%	47.9% / 57.7%	5.3 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	55.2% / 28.1%	38.1 / 23.9
8	PIT	24 – 28 L	0.0	37.5% / 55.9%	12.5% / 5.9%	7.1% / 0.0%	6.0 / 5.1	59.6% / 37.5%	8.5% / 25.0%	5.6 / 3.0	79 / 50	50.8% / 53.7%	50.6% / 50.0%	53.2% / 19.0%	5.8 / 4.4	2.5% / 2.0%	59.5% / 32.0%	30.0 / 22.4
9	@IND	24 – 10 W	1.9	60.0% / 43.2%	8.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.3%	6.2 / 5.2	60.5% / 61.9%	26.3% / 14.3%	2.9 / 5.3	63 / 65	65.3% / 58.3%	60.3% / 49.2%	15.4% / 31.0%	4.2 / 5.2	1.6% / 1.5%	60.3% / 32.3%	28.0 / 27.8
10	@NE	17 – 23 L	-3.8	44.4% / 52.6%	5.6% / 5.3%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.7 / 7.1	64.3% / 59.0%	14.3% / 23.1%	4.1 / 4.4	64 / 58	56.3% / 61.4%	53.1% / 56.9%	20.7% / 48.1%	5.6 / 5.3	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 67.2%	21.8 / 30.0
11	TEN	24 – 30 L	2.3	53.3% / 58.8%	3.3% / 5.9%	3.4% / 3.1%	5.9 / 7.4	45.5% / 50.0%	18.2% / 17.6%	3.9 / 5.1	63 / 68	45.8% / 57.4%	49.2% / 54.4%	31.4% / 45.9%	4.9 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	52.4% / 50.0%	32.2 / 20.5
12	@PIT	14 – 19 L	-4.9	19.0% / 54.9%	14.3% / 0.0%	5.6% / 2.0%	4.3 / 5.2	46.4% / 50.0%	39.3% / 5.0%	4.6 / 3.4	49 / 71	37.1% / 59.3%	34.7% / 53.5%	63.5% / 21.6%	4.5 / 4.7	2.0% / 1.4%	57.1% / 28.2%	28.8 / 26.8
13	DAL	34 – 17 W	4.3	23.5% / 51.0%	0.0% / 2.0%	5.9% / 2.1%	6.3 / 5.7	64.9% / 32.1%	16.2% / 17.9%	7.9 / 4.0	54 / 77	52.4% / 43.1%	51.9% / 44.2%	61.8% / 22.4%	7.4 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	68.5% / 36.4%	36.8 / 32.8
14	@CLE	47 – 42 W	3.9	44.0% / 52.1%	16.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.1%	6.2 / 7.4	59.4% / 57.1%	15.6% / 7.1%	7.2 / 4.9	57 / 76	52.3% / 54.8%	52.6% / 53.9%	62.6% / 41.4%	6.8 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	56.1% / 36.8%	33.2 / 25.6
15	JAC	40 – 14 W	19.2	51.9% / 47.1%	3.7% / 14.7%	3.8% / 0.0%	9.3 / 6.0	54.1% / 27.3%	13.5% / 45.5%	4.3 / 2.8	64 / 56	54.2% / 39.0%	53.1% / 39.3%	44.3% / 40.8%	6.4 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.8%	57.8% / 39.3%	34.9 / 23.8
16	NYG	27 – 13 W	13.1	61.5% / 40.4%	0.0% / 12.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 4.6	65.0% / 58.3%	12.5% / 0.0%	6.2 / 4.5	66 / 59	64.2% / 52.2%	63.6% / 44.1%	42.6% / 13.0%	6.5 / 4.6	1.5% / 0.0%	60.6% / 20.3%	36.8 / 19.3
17	@CIN	38 – 3 W	18.1	57.9% / 19.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.3% / 9.5%	6.4 / 2.3	59.3% / 57.9%	13.0% / 10.5%	7.5 / 7.7	73 / 40	57.4% / 45.2%	58.9% / 37.5%	55.6% / 67.7%	7.2 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	74.0% / 47.5%	23.8 / 29.8
18	@TEN	20 – 13 W	-0.2	48.3% / 48.1%	17.2% / 3.7%	4.2% / 3.8%	5.7 / 5.9	51.4% / 31.8%	14.3% / 22.7%	6.7 / 2.3	64 / 49	51.0% / 41.7%	50.0% / 40.8%	50.6% / 30.1%	6.3 / 4.3	0.0% / 0.0%	54.7% / 44.9%	23.1 / 29.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	NYJ	27 – 17 W	12.9	55.1% / 36.8%	6.1% / 7.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	6.2 / 5.3	40.6% / 60.0%	31.3% / 20.0%	3.1 / 3.5	81 / 53	48.4% / 47.5%	49.4% / 43.4%	27.5% / 47.2%	5.0 / 4.8	2.5% / 1.9%	39.5% / 28.3%	39.5 / 20.7
2	@MIA	31 – 28 W	4.2	61.1% / 48.0%	2.8% / 6.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.5 / 6.2	39.1% / 63.6%	17.4% / 18.2%	4.8 / 4.5	59 / 72	55.3% / 56.9%	52.5% / 52.8%	70.0% / 29.5%	8.9 / 5.7	1.7% / 0.0%	39.0% / 30.6%	20.4 / 26.9
3	LA	35 – 32 W	8.9	56.8% / 58.8%	10.8% / 5.9%	3.0% / 3.1%	7.4 / 9.1	61.9% / 68.8%	14.3% / 18.8%	4.8 / 5.2	58 / 66	59.6% / 65.5%	58.6% / 63.6%	57.1% / 48.3%	6.5 / 7.2	1.7% / 1.5%	36.2% / 48.5%	32.9 / 27.0
4	@LV	30 – 23 W	7.0	57.1% / 54.3%	2.9% / 4.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.5	50.0% / 52.2%	37.5% / 26.1%	2.6 / 3.7	59 / 69	54.5% / 53.8%	54.2% / 53.6%	39.3% / 27.7%	5.7 / 5.6	0.0% / 2.9%	40.7% / 33.3%	38.3 / 23.8
5	@TEN	16 – 42 L	-9.8	55.3% / 67.9%	2.1% / 0.0%	4.3% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.0	54.5% / 47.1%	9.1% / 17.6%	4.3 / 4.1	69 / 62	49.0% / 54.9%	55.1% / 56.5%	15.1% / 19.5%	5.4 / 5.4	1.4% / 0.0%	31.9% / 54.8%	17.3 / 46.1
6	KC	17 – 26 L	-3.6	44.4% / 59.3%	0.0% / 3.7%	3.7% / 0.0%	4.5 / 8.2	56.5% / 67.4%	17.4% / 17.4%	3.7 / 5.3	50 / 73	51.2% / 65.5%	50.0% / 64.4%	21.8% / 44.8%	4.1 / 6.4	0.0% / 1.4%	46.0% / 63.0%	27.4 / 21.8
7	@NYJ	18 – 10 W	-1.4	57.8% / 27.6%	4.4% / 20.7%	0.0% / 8.7%	6.6 / 3.1	63.0% / 59.1%	18.5% / 27.3%	4.7 / 4.5	72 / 51	67.8% / 45.2%	59.7% / 41.2%	33.2% / 34.7%	5.9 / 3.7	1.4% / 0.0%	37.5% / 43.1%	36.1 / 25.8
8	NE	24 – 21 W	3.8	47.4% / 48.1%	5.3% / 7.4%	5.6% / 0.0%	7.8 / 6.0	52.6% / 55.9%	10.5% / 11.8%	5.0 / 5.5	57 / 61	55.8% / 52.9%	50.9% / 52.5%	54.0% / 37.8%	5.9 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.6%	66.7% / 55.7%	23.6 / 32.4
9	SEA	44 – 34 W	13.1	55.6% / 45.7%	15.6% / 10.9%	0.0% / 4.9%	8.6 / 7.9	36.8% / 58.8%	26.3% / 35.3%	1.8 / 3.4	64 / 63	54.0% / 54.2%	50.0% / 49.2%	54.5% / 52.5%	6.6 / 6.7	0.0% / 3.2%	29.7% / 27.0%	44.8 / 24.1
10	@ARI	30 – 32 L	3.2	54.0% / 51.4%	0.0% / 8.6%	4.0% / 3.1%	5.9 / 6.7	44.4% / 62.9%	38.9% / 14.3%	4.1 / 6.2	68 / 70	52.7% / 60.7%	51.5% / 57.1%	40.4% / 53.9%	5.4 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.4%	26.5% / 50.0%	29.9 / 29.3
12	LAC	27 – 17 W	7.9	50.0% / 43.6%	10.7% / 5.5%	4.0% / 1.9%	5.7 / 5.3	53.3% / 33.3%	26.7% / 41.7%	5.7 / 3.2	58 / 79	54.2% / 43.1%	51.7% / 40.5%	48.8% / 31.6%	5.7 / 4.6	3.4% / 0.0%	51.7% / 30.4%	30.3 / 26.3
13	@SF	34 – 24 W	6.7	75.6% / 56.4%	2.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.1%	9.0 / 8.1	48.1% / 47.6%	25.9% / 28.6%	3.0 / 4.1	68 / 60	69.1% / 54.2%	64.7% / 53.3%	38.8% / 42.3%	6.6 / 6.7	1.5% / 0.0%	39.7% / 35.0%	29.2 / 30.0
14	PIT	26 – 15 W	4.7	45.5% / 47.4%	2.3% / 2.6%	2.3% / 5.4%	5.2 / 4.7	48.1% / 35.3%	14.8% / 23.5%	3.9 / 2.8	71 / 55	47.3% / 51.1%	46.5% / 43.6%	28.1% / 8.9%	4.7 / 4.1	1.4% / 0.0%	38.0% / 30.9%	27.5 / 26.0
15	@DEN	48 – 19 W	14.7	56.1% / 48.6%	2.4% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 3.3	54.2% / 50.0%	12.5% / 17.9%	7.6 / 5.0	65 / 63	52.9% / 51.0%	55.4% / 49.2%	53.2% / 23.9%	8.2 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.6%	36.9% / 44.4%	32.9 / 24.9
16	@NE	38 – 9 W	14.1	57.5% / 20.8%	0.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.6 / 2.3	54.8% / 41.7%	6.5% / 12.5%	4.2 / 6.0	71 / 48	60.4% / 30.6%	56.3% / 31.3%	39.7% / 49.8%	6.7 / 4.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.7% / 50.0%	23.3 / 19.1
17	MIA	56 – 26 W	15.6	61.5% / 46.7%	2.6% / 1.7%	5.3% / 5.1%	9.7 / 6.4	36.0% / 50.0%	20.0% / 15.0%	3.1 / 3.5	64 / 80	56.9% / 53.1%	51.6% / 47.5%	48.8% / 41.9%	7.1 / 5.7	0.0% / 1.3%	39.1% / 25.0%	33.4 / 24.6
18	IND	27 – 24 W	3.5	54.1% / 47.8%	5.4% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.1 / 6.7	47.6% / 46.7%	23.8% / 20.0%	4.6 / 5.4	58 / 76	57.1% / 46.3%	51.7% / 47.4%	42.8% / 53.0%	6.8 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	36.2% / 39.5%	15.4 / 30.2

Baltimore Ravens @

Buffalo Bills

Sat, Jan 16

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis