Game Analysis
Lean – BUFFALO (+6) over Baltimore
There will likely be high winds on Sunday and the Buffalo’s defense matches up well to limit Lamar Jackson’s options through the air. The Ravens are the only team in the NFL targeting tight ends on more than 40% of passes and Mark Andrews is gaining 2.79 yards per route run (2nd). However, the Bills are allowing only 6.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (3rd) led by the excellent safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Baltimore’s offensive line is conceding only 5.3 pressures per game, which is about half the average of the other 31 offensive lines. However, left guard Bradley Bozeman is the clear weak link and he will struggle across from interior defender Ed Oliver, who has an 18% pass rush win rate (4th). Jackson likely won’t have as much time as usual to find Marquise Brown downfield especially with the rookie wide receiver blanketed by Tre’Davious White, who has yet to surrender a touchdown and has 4 interceptions this season. The Ravens have our top-rated ground game and they will dominate a Bills rush defense ranked 29th.
Baltimore’s cornerbacks have allowed only 5.8 yards per target since Jimmy Smith returned to the lineup in week 9, which is significantly lower than the 8.1 league average. Josh Allen is targeting wide receivers on 66.5% of his passes (5th-most), but I expect John Brown and Cole Beasley to be neutralized on Sunday. Matthew Judon’s 23% pass rush win rate ranks 10th among edge defenders and his fortunes will be determined by the status of right tackle Ty Nsekhe (questionable). Backup Cody Ford is surrendering a sack on 2.3% of pass blocking snaps while Nsekhe ranks 9th among tackles with a 92% pass block win rate. Buffalo’s ground game ranks 8th despite Frank Gore averaging a league-low 0.09 avoided tackles per rush.
The Ravens will rely on the run more than normal in this matchup and the Bills may struggle on offense if Baltimore can contain their rushing attack. However, the model favors Baltimore by just 5.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points, and the Ravens are due for a letdown. In fact, teams that have won 8 or more consecutive games are 6-34 ATS as road favorites or picks in the latter stage of the season (from game 12 on), including 3-26 ATS laying more than 3 points, and Buffalo applies to a very good 81-18-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation that is 5-0 ATS this season. I don’t like the matchups for Buffalo but I’ll lean with the Bills based on the strong technical analysis that’s in their favor.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.3
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.1%
44.6%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.8%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.2%
42.6%
-
NYPP
7.2
6.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
37.0
21.0
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
14.3%
27.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
55.7%
44.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.6%
40.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.7
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
67.3
57.8
-
Early Down Succ
54.7%
48.1%
-
Succ Rate
53.2%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.8%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.2
26.5
-
Run Ratio
55.1%
35.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.0
26.7
-
Game Control
8.8
-8.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
38.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.3%
40.4%
-
Sack Rate
6.9%
8.7%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.7%
12.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.6%
33.0%
-
NYPP
6.4
5.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.1
23.3
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
20.1%
26.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
49.2%
46.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.6%
49.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
64.3
61.4
-
Early Down Succ
50.5%
45.8%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.1%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.8
28.8
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
38.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
27.2
-
Game Control
2.3
-2.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@MIA |
59 – 10 W |
32.5 |
74.1% /
37.1% |
3.7% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
14.0 /
5.1 |
58.7% /
33.3% |
13.0% /
50.0% |
5.8 /
1.8 |
73 /
47 |
65.5% /
37.8% |
64.4% /
36.2% |
66.7% /
48.5% |
8.8 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
63.0% /
25.5% |
31.6 /
22.6 |
| 2 |
ARI |
23 – 17 W |
6.7 |
46.2% /
44.2% |
5.1% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.7 |
45.5% /
36.4% |
15.2% /
36.4% |
5.5 /
1.8 |
72 /
54 |
47.3% /
48.8% |
45.8% /
42.6% |
62.3% /
65.9% |
6.1 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.8% /
20.4% |
28.7 /
20.0 |
| 3 |
@KC |
28 – 33 L |
-7.1 |
34.8% /
57.9% |
6.5% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
9.6 |
71.9% /
46.2% |
6.3% /
26.9% |
6.3 /
5.4 |
78 /
64 |
50.8% /
55.8% |
50.0% /
53.1% |
37.6% /
49.5% |
5.8 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.0% /
40.6% |
26.0 /
25.5 |
| 4 |
CLE |
25 – 40 L |
-7.4 |
52.6% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
3.1% |
5.9% /
3.2% |
5.8 /
10.5 |
58.6% /
51.7% |
13.8% /
24.1% |
6.0 /
6.7 |
67 /
61 |
59.3% /
52.2% |
55.2% /
50.8% |
39.7% /
55.3% |
5.9 /
8.7 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
47.5% |
27.8 /
26.2 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
26 – 23 W |
2.9 |
33.3% /
40.6% |
15.2% /
3.1% |
10.7% /
3.2% |
4.2 /
6.0 |
55.0% /
52.6% |
25.0% /
15.8% |
3.5 /
4.1 |
73 /
51 |
45.6% /
48.8% |
45.2% /
45.1% |
22.0% /
42.8% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
2.0% |
54.8% /
37.3% |
33.3 /
32.7 |
| 6 |
CIN |
23 – 17 W |
7.4 |
55.9% /
43.9% |
2.9% /
4.9% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.7 /
5.3 |
58.1% /
21.4% |
18.6% /
42.9% |
6.3 /
2.4 |
77 /
55 |
59.3% /
36.4% |
57.1% /
38.2% |
45.1% /
44.8% |
6.5 /
4.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
55.8% /
25.5% |
25.5 /
27.3 |
| 7 |
@SEA |
30 – 16 W |
2.9 |
28.6% /
38.1% |
4.8% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.7 /
5.7 |
42.9% /
57.7% |
14.3% /
26.9% |
5.7 /
4.1 |
56 /
68 |
37.5% /
41.2% |
37.5% /
45.6% |
62.1% /
49.0% |
6.1 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
62.5% /
38.2% |
23.9 /
25.2 |
| 9 |
NE |
37 – 20 W |
8.4 |
62.5% /
52.1% |
4.2% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
48.8% /
64.7% |
17.1% /
11.8% |
5.1 /
4.4 |
65 /
65 |
56.9% /
59.6% |
53.8% /
55.4% |
39.5% /
19.0% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
3.1% /
1.5% |
63.1% /
26.2% |
20.0 /
34.7 |
| 10 |
@CIN |
49 – 13 W |
22.7 |
69.6% /
40.6% |
4.3% /
6.3% |
4.5% /
3.3% |
10.6 /
4.7 |
65.2% /
62.5% |
17.4% /
30.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
46 /
72 |
70.3% /
56.6% |
67.4% /
52.8% |
46.4% /
29.6% |
8.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
50.0% /
55.6% |
31.1 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
HOU |
41 – 7 W |
14.8 |
60.7% /
40.5% |
3.6% /
18.9% |
0.0% /
3.3% |
8.1 /
3.0 |
47.2% /
45.0% |
16.7% /
15.0% |
7.3 /
6.1 |
64 /
57 |
55.8% /
48.8% |
53.1% /
42.1% |
52.1% /
37.9% |
7.7 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
56.3% /
35.1% |
36.2 /
28.2 |
| 12 |
@LA |
45 – 6 W |
21.6 |
57.7% /
46.2% |
11.5% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
7.5 /
5.1 |
56.3% /
22.2% |
4.2% /
33.3% |
5.9 /
2.4 |
74 /
48 |
55.6% /
45.9% |
56.8% /
41.7% |
52.7% /
44.8% |
6.5 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.9% /
18.8% |
30.6 /
24.1 |
| 13 |
SF |
20 – 17 W |
0.3 |
37.5% /
43.5% |
4.2% /
8.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
6.8 |
60.5% /
41.4% |
10.5% /
17.2% |
4.7 /
6.0 |
62 /
52 |
53.1% /
44.7% |
51.6% /
42.3% |
35.7% /
53.2% |
4.6 /
6.4 |
1.6% /
1.9% |
61.3% /
55.8% |
33.1 /
22.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2019 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@NYJ |
17 – 16 W |
-7.1 |
55.3% /
42.2% |
2.6% /
8.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
3.4 |
48.0% /
52.4% |
20.0% /
33.3% |
5.1 /
3.2 |
63 /
66 |
54.9% /
46.8% |
52.4% /
45.5% |
50.0% /
9.9% |
5.9 /
3.4 |
3.2% /
1.5% |
39.7% /
31.8% |
22.9 /
28.4 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
28 – 14 W |
8.9 |
42.4% /
45.7% |
9.1% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
4.4% |
7.2 /
5.2 |
58.8% /
70.0% |
17.6% /
5.0% |
4.4 /
6.5 |
67 /
66 |
55.8% /
59.6% |
50.7% /
53.0% |
32.7% /
38.9% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.7% /
30.3% |
24.8 /
28.5 |
| 3 |
CIN |
21 – 17 W |
6.7 |
45.9% /
44.7% |
2.7% /
5.3% |
2.8% /
5.6% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
55.6% /
36.8% |
19.4% /
31.6% |
4.9 /
3.5 |
73 /
57 |
55.2% /
46.7% |
50.7% /
42.1% |
40.6% /
52.9% |
5.7 /
5.4 |
1.4% /
3.5% |
49.3% /
33.3% |
29.6 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
NE |
10 – 16 L |
-7.9 |
36.7% /
20.5% |
10.2% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
2.6% |
4.9 /
3.8 |
50.0% /
47.8% |
13.6% /
17.4% |
6.1 /
3.2 |
71 /
62 |
47.3% /
33.3% |
40.8% /
30.6% |
46.9% /
32.1% |
5.3 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.0% /
37.1% |
29.9 /
27.1 |
| 5 |
@TEN |
14 – 7 W |
2.4 |
47.2% /
40.7% |
11.1% /
18.5% |
3.1% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
5.6 |
55.6% /
40.7% |
14.8% /
25.9% |
4.0 /
3.8 |
63 /
54 |
58.7% /
45.0% |
50.8% /
40.7% |
34.5% /
52.0% |
5.0 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
50.0% |
30.0 /
23.3 |
| 7 |
MIA |
31 – 21 W |
0.6 |
50.0% /
55.6% |
7.1% /
2.8% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.7 /
7.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
13.0% /
33.3% |
5.1 /
3.6 |
51 /
66 |
55.0% /
52.0% |
51.0% /
53.0% |
61.3% /
45.9% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
45.1% /
45.5% |
30.2 /
25.5 |
| 8 |
PHI |
13 – 31 L |
-5.2 |
31.6% /
48.1% |
10.5% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
5.7 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
35.0% /
29.3% |
4.9 /
5.3 |
58 /
68 |
39.0% /
50.0% |
37.9% /
48.5% |
44.3% /
57.7% |
4.4 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
34.5% /
60.3% |
29.4 /
36.4 |
| 9 |
WAS |
24 – 9 W |
8.5 |
45.5% /
34.6% |
9.1% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
4.5 |
53.8% /
34.8% |
17.9% /
30.4% |
3.1 /
5.5 |
61 /
49 |
54.5% /
40.5% |
50.8% /
34.7% |
48.9% /
42.8% |
4.4 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
63.9% /
46.9% |
34.9 /
27.3 |
| 10 |
@CLE |
16 – 19 L |
-2.5 |
42.9% /
47.5% |
2.4% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
5.5 |
40.0% /
53.8% |
15.0% /
30.8% |
4.2 /
5.7 |
62 /
66 |
46.8% /
53.8% |
41.9% /
50.0% |
42.4% /
32.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.3% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
24.8 |
| 11 |
@MIA |
37 – 20 W |
10.6 |
51.5% /
36.5% |
0.0% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
5.4 |
38.2% /
30.8% |
20.6% /
46.2% |
4.9 /
1.8 |
67 /
65 |
47.1% /
38.3% |
44.8% /
35.4% |
41.5% /
38.0% |
6.3 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
50.7% /
20.0% |
29.2 /
28.2 |
| 12 |
DEN |
20 – 3 W |
7.9 |
42.3% /
17.2% |
3.8% /
13.8% |
4.0% /
4.0% |
6.9 /
1.7 |
44.7% /
58.8% |
21.3% /
11.8% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
73 /
46 |
43.6% /
37.1% |
43.8% /
32.6% |
52.8% /
41.8% |
5.8 /
2.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
64.4% /
37.0% |
32.4 /
23.3 |
| 13 |
@DAL |
26 – 15 W |
4.9 |
51.7% /
50.9% |
13.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.0 /
6.1 |
44.1% /
36.8% |
32.4% /
21.1% |
3.6 /
5.4 |
63 /
72 |
47.8% /
46.4% |
47.6% /
47.2% |
44.7% /
33.6% |
5.7 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
54.0% /
26.4% |
33.1 /
23.5 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Buffalo Bills