Game Analysis
ATLANTA (-1.5) vs Baltimore
Lamar Jackson is expected to make his third start this week after beating the Bengals and Raiders. The Ravens have the top rush offense in the league according to our metrics the last two weeks with Gus Edwards topping 100 yards in both games and Jackson adding value with his legs. Baltimore’s ground game is uneven with 100 outside right attempts, which will be towards Vic Beasley, compared to just 53 outside left attempts. The unbalanced approach will likely benefit the Ravens in this matchup as Beasley is not known for his rush defense, never having recorded more than 10 run stops in a season during his 4-year career. Atlanta’s rush defense ranks a pedestrian 24th in our metrics but has the potential to improve with Pro Bowl middle linebacker Deion Jones taking first-team reps in practice this week after being sidelined since week 1. How much Jones will play is unknown, however.
Atlanta’s offense has failed to reach the 20-point plateau in each of the last 3 weeks and three turnovers in New Orleans’ territory kept the Falcons offense from keeping last week’s game competitive on Thanksgiving. Atlanta will likely struggle again this week but to an unfavorable matchup. Atlanta’s wide receivers account for 59% of their total yards and the Ravens do an excellent job limiting opposing wide receivers to 6.4 yards per target, which is best in the league by a wide margin – nearly 2 yards per target better than average.
Our model makes this game around pick and there are no significant situations favoring either side. Our model would have predicted a very high scoring game with Flacco at quarterback for the Ravens. However, Baltimore has run the ball 67% of the time with Lamar Jackson at quarterback and has a pace per play that is 2.7 seconds longer than their season average, which drops the predicted total to a point where there is no value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
37.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.5%
43.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.1%
18.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
35.1%
-
NYPP
6.4
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
33.2
23.8
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.3
-
Stuff Rate
20.7%
26.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.4%
39.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.3%
39.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.2
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.6%
43.8%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
41.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
4.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.6
28.6
-
Run Ratio
46.5%
38.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
28.1
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.0
36.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.5%
54.9%
-
Sack Rate
7.1%
5.5%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.6%
19.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.0%
31.9%
-
NYPP
7.2
7.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.2
27.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
29.0%
18.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.1%
53.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.9%
48.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
63.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.7%
54.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.3%
53.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.3%
37.8%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
6.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.1%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
29.1
-
Run Ratio
34.4%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
27.0
-
Game Control
-1.3
1.3
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BUF |
47 – 3 W |
25.9 |
42.5% /
20.5% |
5.0% /
15.4% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.3 /
1.8 |
44.1% /
22.7% |
29.4% /
31.8% |
3.4 /
3.8 |
74 /
61 |
43.3% /
24.4% |
43.2% /
21.3% |
43.1% /
39.9% |
5.0 /
2.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
45.9% /
36.1% |
41.3 /
30.5 |
| 2 |
@CIN |
23 – 34 L |
-11.8 |
49.1% /
45.2% |
7.0% /
0.0% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
50.0% /
42.9% |
18.2% /
28.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
79 /
70 |
50.0% /
45.6% |
49.4% /
44.3% |
35.5% /
43.7% |
5.4 /
5.3 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
27.8% /
40.0% |
22.6 /
36.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
27 – 14 W |
4.7 |
48.8% /
45.9% |
4.9% /
8.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
32.3% /
45.8% |
19.4% /
33.3% |
2.6 /
5.0 |
72 /
61 |
43.1% /
47.8% |
41.7% /
45.9% |
33.9% /
39.9% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
39.3% |
27.2 /
33.4 |
| 4 |
@PIT |
26 – 14 W |
6.3 |
47.7% /
47.9% |
4.5% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
8.1 /
5.5 |
48.5% /
16.7% |
9.1% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
77 /
60 |
51.9% /
50.0% |
48.1% /
41.7% |
32.7% /
42.1% |
5.9 /
4.8 |
1.3% /
1.7% |
42.9% /
20.0% |
36.8 /
21.2 |
| 5 |
@CLE |
9 – 12 L |
-0.7 |
80.6% /
62.1% |
6.5% /
17.2% |
3.4% /
4.2% |
9.5 /
10.5 |
48.0% /
46.4% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
4.6 /
4.0 |
56 /
57 |
47.8% /
45.5% |
66.1% /
54.4% |
35.1% /
57.7% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
44.6% /
49.1% |
31.4 /
19.7 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
21 – 0 W |
13.2 |
45.9% /
26.9% |
0.0% /
42.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
6.4 /
2.0 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
27.8% /
35.7% |
3.4 /
3.9 |
73 /
40 |
37.7% /
33.3% |
45.2% /
27.5% |
44.5% /
42.5% |
5.0 /
2.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
35.0% |
29.9 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
NO |
23 – 24 L |
1.7 |
46.3% /
45.2% |
2.4% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.6 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
12.5% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
71 |
50.0% /
48.0% |
48.4% /
47.9% |
19.7% /
31.2% |
5.5 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.9% /
56.3% |
21.8 /
27.6 |
| 8 |
@CAR |
21 – 36 L |
-10.2 |
45.7% /
60.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
7.7 |
77.8% /
31.4% |
16.7% /
20.0% |
5.6 /
4.5 |
64 /
65 |
56.0% /
47.9% |
54.7% /
44.6% |
26.2% /
26.3% |
5.1 /
6.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
28.1% /
53.8% |
23.0 /
37.5 |
| 9 |
PIT |
16 – 23 L |
-6.1 |
37.5% /
51.0% |
5.0% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
50.0% /
48.1% |
37.5% /
14.8% |
3.8 /
4.2 |
56 /
76 |
44.2% /
45.8% |
41.1% /
50.0% |
47.8% /
27.8% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
35.5% |
26.0 /
23.8 |
| 11 |
CIN |
24 – 21 W |
1.3 |
52.4% /
39.5% |
9.5% /
2.6% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
5.4 |
47.4% /
37.5% |
15.8% /
31.3% |
4.7 /
3.0 |
78 /
54 |
53.6% /
38.5% |
48.7% /
38.9% |
33.7% /
56.5% |
5.2 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
73.1% /
29.6% |
31.6 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
OAK |
34 – 17 W |
3.9 |
42.3% /
29.7% |
3.8% /
8.1% |
8.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
4.9 |
68.9% /
47.6% |
11.1% /
19.0% |
5.4 /
3.3 |
71 /
58 |
63.0% /
42.5% |
59.2% /
36.2% |
60.8% /
44.2% |
5.9 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
63.4% /
36.2% |
24.8 /
25.5 |
| 13 |
@ATL |
26 – 16 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
36.7% |
7.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
3.2 |
61.5% /
37.5% |
11.5% /
31.3% |
4.0 /
2.2 |
80 /
46 |
63.8% /
44.1% |
57.5% /
37.0% |
29.3% /
8.3% |
4.6 /
2.9 |
1.3% /
2.2% |
65.0% /
34.8% |
25.9 /
25.6 |
| 14 |
@KC |
24 – 27 L |
-1.6 |
41.4% /
53.6% |
10.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
1.9% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
56.4% /
55.6% |
10.3% /
25.9% |
5.1 /
3.5 |
68 /
83 |
52.8% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
54.2% |
25.5% /
28.3% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
57.4% /
32.5% |
29.8 /
30.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@PHI |
12 – 18 L |
0.9 |
31.9% /
32.4% |
8.5% /
5.4% |
2.3% /
2.9% |
4.8 /
3.2 |
44.4% /
53.6% |
27.8% /
21.4% |
4.1 /
4.1 |
65 /
65 |
38.8% /
40.4% |
35.4% /
41.5% |
49.5% /
20.6% |
4.6 /
3.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
27.7% /
43.1% |
35.2 /
22.2 |
| 2 |
CAR |
31 – 24 W |
5.0 |
67.9% /
53.2% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
3.6% /
2.2% |
9.7 /
6.8 |
50.0% /
66.7% |
31.3% /
11.1% |
5.3 /
6.7 |
60 /
65 |
59.2% /
58.5% |
58.3% /
56.9% |
55.9% /
44.4% |
7.4 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.3% /
27.7% |
26.2 /
19.5 |
| 3 |
NO |
37 – 43 L |
-0.3 |
63.2% /
56.0% |
7.9% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.4 /
7.8 |
21.7% /
53.6% |
43.5% /
14.3% |
2.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
78 |
52.1% /
57.4% |
47.5% /
55.1% |
36.3% /
37.9% |
6.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
35.9% |
24.1 /
29.8 |
| 4 |
CIN |
36 – 37 L |
-0.5 |
61.9% /
52.3% |
7.1% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
9.6 /
7.0 |
45.8% /
56.5% |
12.5% /
8.7% |
3.8 /
4.3 |
66 /
67 |
52.0% /
50.9% |
56.1% /
53.7% |
37.2% /
33.4% |
7.5 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
34.3% |
32.4 /
33.0 |
| 5 |
@PIT |
17 – 41 L |
-8.9 |
56.8% /
84.2% |
16.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.1 /
13.2 |
36.8% /
50.0% |
31.6% /
15.6% |
3.3 /
4.1 |
56 /
51 |
39.6% /
51.1% |
50.0% /
62.7% |
36.1% /
39.3% |
5.8 /
7.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
62.7% |
20.3 /
36.1 |
| 6 |
TB |
34 – 29 W |
6.3 |
57.1% /
61.9% |
2.4% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
8.2 /
9.3 |
40.9% /
55.0% |
36.4% /
25.0% |
3.2 /
6.2 |
64 /
62 |
49.0% /
59.3% |
51.6% /
59.7% |
40.9% /
32.8% |
6.5 /
8.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.4% /
32.3% |
21.9 /
28.6 |
| 7 |
NYG |
23 – 20 W |
4.5 |
57.1% /
50.0% |
7.1% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
8.9 |
33.3% /
35.0% |
33.3% /
40.0% |
3.2 /
3.1 |
63 /
62 |
50.0% /
46.9% |
49.2% /
45.2% |
42.2% /
60.3% |
6.7 /
7.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
32.3% |
19.7 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
@WAS |
38 – 14 W |
12.7 |
45.0% /
44.9% |
5.0% /
6.1% |
2.6% /
2.2% |
8.4 /
5.9 |
62.5% /
53.3% |
0.0% /
33.3% |
6.4 /
5.3 |
64 /
64 |
45.1% /
46.9% |
51.6% /
46.9% |
54.4% /
36.6% |
7.7 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
23.4% |
22.7 /
23.8 |
| 10 |
@CLE |
16 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
54.7% /
71.4% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
5.9 /
10.3 |
47.4% /
45.2% |
36.8% /
19.4% |
3.7 /
6.9 |
72 /
52 |
57.4% /
62.5% |
52.8% /
55.8% |
36.1% /
45.7% |
5.3 /
8.3 |
2.8% /
0.0% |
26.4% /
59.6% |
27.3 /
23.6 |
| 11 |
DAL |
19 – 22 L |
-1.1 |
56.8% /
50.0% |
8.1% /
5.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
61.1% /
62.1% |
27.8% /
13.8% |
4.4 /
4.6 |
55 /
63 |
60.5% /
58.0% |
58.2% /
55.6% |
39.0% /
28.8% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.7% /
46.0% |
29.1 /
26.8 |
| 12 |
@NO |
17 – 31 L |
-11.9 |
49.1% /
62.5% |
11.3% /
8.3% |
2.1% /
4.5% |
6.4 /
6.8 |
37.5% /
51.4% |
43.8% /
8.6% |
1.6 /
4.4 |
69 /
59 |
45.8% /
68.3% |
46.4% /
55.9% |
42.3% /
32.9% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
59.3% |
29.6 /
33.5 |
| 13 |
BAL |
16 – 26 L |
-2.5 |
36.7% /
50.0% |
10.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
5.7 |
37.5% /
61.5% |
31.3% /
11.5% |
2.2 /
4.0 |
46 /
80 |
44.1% /
63.8% |
37.0% /
57.5% |
8.3% /
29.3% |
2.9 /
4.6 |
2.2% /
1.3% |
34.8% /
65.0% |
25.6 /
25.9 |
| 14 |
@GB |
20 – 34 L |
-12.3 |
56.8% /
44.4% |
4.5% /
11.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
4.5 |
66.7% /
46.2% |
20.8% /
15.4% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
68 /
62 |
66.0% /
44.7% |
60.3% /
45.2% |
20.3% /
48.8% |
5.1 /
4.9 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
35.3% /
41.9% |
27.8 /
25.9 |
Baltimore Ravens
@ 
Atlanta Falcons