Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (41) Washington vs Atlanta

Lean – Atlanta (+4.5)

· The Falcons benefited from a kick return touchdown last week to score 27 points. The offensive line only allowed two quarterback hurries against the Bears, but I’m expecting a completely different story for Atlanta’s offense on Sunday.

· Commanders’ defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne have 70 combined pressures on the interior while Falcons center Drew Dalman ranks 2nd-worst in pass blocking efficiency. Washington’s defense will also likely have edge defender Chase Young making his season debut.

· Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts will miss this game with an MCL sprain. Pitts had a 24.4% target share and now the Falcons have a glaring hole in the passing game. Pitts is worth a half point according to our metrics.

· Atlanta’s offense is already run-heavy and Marcus Mariota might take even more of a backseat with Pitts out and rain in the forecast. The Falcons have the 3rd-rated ground game but the Commanders defense is allowing only a 35.5% rush success rate (4th).

· Atlanta’s front on defense isn’t anything to write home about but DT Grady Jarrett does rank 13th in pass rushing efficiency and he will cause headaches for Washington C Tyler Larsen, who is allowing a 7.4% pressure rate.

· Taylor Heinicke will focus on finding backup Falcons CB Darren Hall when lined up across from WR Terry McLaurin, who is averaging 0.37 EPA/target (20th). However, it is more difficult to complete those deeper sideline routes with a wet ball.

· Our model favors the Commanders by 2.8 points, with a predicted total of 37.8 points.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher.