Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (42) – Atlanta at SEATTLE

1-Star Best Bet – *Atlanta Team Total Over (20.5 -120)

Lean – Atlanta (+1) over SEATTLE

· The Falcons scored 53 points in the first two weeks (9th). They are unlikely to be a top 10 offense this year, but Atlanta’s 5.3 yppl (19th) is impressive considering the defenses they faced (Saints and Rams) and I believe the market is too low on Arthur Smith’s new offense with Marcus Mariota.

· Mariota is using play action on 40.6% of dropbacks (2nd) to slow down the pass rush. The Falcons offensive line ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency versus defenses who finished 5th and 8th in sack rate last season. 

· Tight end Kyle Pitts is off to a slow start with just 38 yards this year, but he will turn around in this matchup. New Orleans LB Demario Davis has been one of the best cover linebackers in the NFL for years. Davis allowed only 5.1 yards per target in 2021. Pitts took snaps against Davis in week 1 and All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey in week 2. Pitts will face a Seahawks defense in week 3 without starting safety Jamal Adams, who is worth 0.4 points by our numbers.

· Seattle’s defense has allowed 50.9 yards per drive, the most in the NFL. The Seahawks are also the only defense in the league who haven’t forced a 3 and out.

· Seattle’s offense has scored only 24 points in two games, and it sounds like Pete Carrol might be open to revving up the passing attack a bit, “after two weeks of watching Geno play, we don’t need to hold him back at all”.

· Geno Smith will face pressure from up the middle when the Seahawks do dropback to pass. Falcons DT Grady Jarrett ranks 14th in pass rushing efficiency and Seattle’s LG Phil Haynes is surrendering a 9.3% pressure rate.

· Atlanta stayed on the west coast this week rather than flying across the country twice which I believe was a sharp decision.

· Our model has the Falcons by 1.5 with a predicted total of 47.2 and most of the value towards to over is with the Falcons offense. I thought it was best to diversity the play with 1-Star over for the game at 43 or less and 1-Star over the Atlanta Team Total at 21 or less.