Atlanta Falcons @

San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Dec 19
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 323
Odds: San Francisco 49ers -9.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5) vs Atlanta

Lean – Atlanta at +10 or more

Atlanta’s offense goes as running back Cordarrelle Patterson goes as we saw them get shut out in the only game Patterson missed in week 11. Patterson is averaging 2.73 yards per route run (2nd) but he will be held in check on Sunday as the 49ers have the perfect stopper in All-Pro Fred Warner, who concedes a reception only once every 14.4 cover snaps, which leads all linebackers.

Edge defenders Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead have combined for 48% of San Francisco’s pressures on the defensive line. Bosa almost exclusively lined up across from left tackles through the first 7 weeks of the season and Armstead across from right tackles. However, Bosa and Armstead are both taking over 80% of their pass rushing snaps from the left side of the defense (right side of the offense) over the last 7 games. RG Chris Lindstrom and RT Kaleb McGary combined to allow 70% of Atlanta’s offensive line’s pressures last week and will struggle to protect Matt Ryan in this matchup.

Deebo Samuel is averaging 2.82 yards per route run (3rd) but he will be contained on the outside when lined up across from Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell, who conceded two receptions on six targets while also forcing two incompletions and intercepting a pass last week. Jimmy Garoppolo will turn to George Kittle again after the tight end was responsible for over half of the 49ers’ receiving yards and first downs/touchdowns against the Bengals last week. RG Daniel Brunskill surrendered 6 pressures in Cincinnati, and he will struggle with Atlanta Pro Bowl DT Grady Jarrett.

Our model makes San Francisco an 8.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.6. I’d lean with Atlanta if the line gets to +10 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • 49ers
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.46 37.23
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 50.8%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 3.0% 1.7%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.1% 18.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.5% 29.6%
  • NYPP 6.01 6.65



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.46 28.00
  • RB YPR 3.79 3.82
  • Stuff Rate 26.1% 19.5%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.6% 53.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.8% 30.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.72 4.18




Game

  • All Snaps 61.92 65.23
  • Early Down Succ 45.4% 54.2%
  • Succ Rate 43.9% 52.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.2% 30.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.11 5.59
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.41 28.12
  • Run Ratio 39.5% 42.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -1.75 1.75
 
  • Points 18.85 27.15
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