Game Analysis
PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) vs Atlanta
Carson Wentz will not play in week 1 so we will see Nick Foles under center in Philadelphia. People forget the Super Bowl MVP averages a modest 6.3 yards per pass play for his career, including just 4.7 yards per pass play after taking over for the injured Wentz in the 2017 regular season before his incredible 8.9 yards per pass play in the playoffs, and despite the postseason heroics, our model still makes Foles about 2.5 points per game worse than Wentz.
Philadelphia also isn’t likely to be as successful offensively as they were last season even with Wentz. The 2017 Eagles led the league in 3rd-down conversions and added the 3rd most points on 3rd-downs of any offense since 2000 according to our metrics. Philadelphia’s offense also had the second-highest touchdown conversion rate in the Redzone last year. Third-down and Redzone plays are crucial in deciding the winner of games but have no more predictive value than any other plays and I expect the Eagles will score fewer points this season due to regression to the mean in both of those key categories.
The Falcons went from the 8th highest scoring team of all time in 2016 to the 15th highest scoring team of last season after former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was replaced by Steve Sarkisian. Predictably, Matt Ryan dropped off in most statistical categories but some of his decline can be explained away by bad luck – such as 5 of his 12 interceptions bouncing off his intended target’s hands. Atlanta’s offense was also unfortunate to perform significantly worse inside the 20 with a 37% success rate (21st) compared to a 49% success rate outside the Redzone (2nd) – a difference that is mostly due to variance. Ryan also didn’t get any favors from special teams as the Falcons started with the second-worst field position in the NFL. Fewer fluke plays and less negative Redzone variance, combined with the special teams regressing up towards the mean, should allow the Falcons to score more points in 2018.
Philadelphia’s defense is losing a starter at all three levels, but they seem to have viable replacements for each. DE Vinny Curry has moved on after bringing 47 pressures last season, but the Eagles replaced him with Michael Bennett, who racked up 70 pressures (11th among edge rushers). Linebacker Jordan Hicks should be an upgrade over Mychal Kendricks, particularly in pass coverage. Hicks was lost to an Achilles injury last season but finished top of the league in yards allowed per cover snap in 2016 (min 300 snaps). Patrick Robinson’s ability to shut down inside receivers will be the toughest to replace after surrendering a reception on just one out of every 10.5 cover snaps in the slot (5th), but 2017 second-round pick Sidney Jones did show some promise last year allowing only one catch for 3 yards in 17 cover snaps.
Dan Quinn’s defense plays a ‘bend but don’t break’ style and the Falcons allowed 20-yard plays at the third-lowest rate of any team last season. This scheme requires teams to clamp down in the redzone, where Atlanta’s defense ranked 5th in success rate allowed. Still, the Falcons ranked 28th in overall success rate allowed on all plays and they will likely get fewer stops inside the 20 this year.
I’m expecting regression for both defenses and Philadelphia’s offense, especially with Foles under center, while Atlanta’s offense should improve. Home field advantage makes the Eagles slight favorites for the 2018 NFL opening game (our ratings have Philly by 1 point). I don’t see enough value on the side or total to bet this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.6
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.8%
47.0%
-
Sack Rate
4.7%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.1%
15.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.3%
34.1%
-
NYPP
7.1
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.9
26.0
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
25.1%
24.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.2%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
46.1%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
50.1%
49.2%
-
Succ Rate
47.3%
46.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
37.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
28.6
-
Run Ratio
44.3%
41.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.8
28.3
-
Game Control
2.4
-2.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.3
40.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.4%
41.9%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.3%
14.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.4%
36.6%
-
NYPP
6.7
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.9
21.2
-
RB YPR
4.0
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.9%
27.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.7%
40.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
50.7%
50.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
68.2
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
45.8%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
44.3%
42.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.1%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
26.5
-
Run Ratio
45.3%
34.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.9
27.4
-
Game Control
5.5
-5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CHI |
23 – 17 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
31.8% |
6.3% /
9.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
4.0 |
32.0% /
52.6% |
24.0% /
15.8% |
2.6 /
6.6 |
57 /
63 |
45.2% /
37.5% |
42.1% /
38.1% |
49.7% /
31.2% |
6.6 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
30.2% |
18.3 /
28.1 |
| 2 |
GB |
34 – 23 W |
12.4 |
51.6% /
50.9% |
9.7% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
7.2 /
5.8 |
55.6% /
56.3% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
5.2 /
3.8 |
58 /
69 |
55.3% /
53.8% |
53.4% /
52.2% |
50.0% /
24.2% |
6.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
46.6% /
23.2% |
26.7 /
22.1 |
| 3 |
@DET |
30 – 26 W |
6.3 |
48.6% /
40.4% |
5.4% /
4.3% |
8.6% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
5.4 |
48.3% /
31.6% |
13.8% /
26.3% |
5.2 /
3.7 |
66 /
66 |
50.9% /
41.5% |
48.5% /
37.9% |
34.7% /
31.8% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
28.8% |
27.8 /
29.7 |
| 4 |
BUF |
17 – 23 L |
-2.0 |
48.8% /
43.5% |
2.3% /
13.0% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
7.1 |
58.6% /
44.7% |
27.6% /
23.7% |
5.1 /
3.1 |
72 /
61 |
56.1% /
47.7% |
52.8% /
44.3% |
30.9% /
27.6% |
5.4 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
62.3% |
25.9 /
21.9 |
| 6 |
MIA |
17 – 20 L |
7.7 |
50.0% /
45.5% |
5.6% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
6.6 /
4.6 |
47.4% /
46.9% |
42.1% /
25.0% |
5.3 /
4.3 |
55 /
65 |
48.8% /
47.9% |
49.1% /
46.2% |
40.1% /
23.8% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.5% /
49.2% |
20.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
@NE |
7 – 23 L |
-11.4 |
58.8% /
48.4% |
2.9% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.6 /
7.8 |
54.5% /
56.4% |
18.2% /
12.8% |
5.5 /
4.2 |
56 /
70 |
65.9% /
57.7% |
57.1% /
52.9% |
26.8% /
38.4% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
55.7% |
21.9 /
28.8 |
| 8 |
@NYJ |
25 – 20 W |
-1.1 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
3.3% /
8.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.2 /
6.7 |
37.5% /
22.7% |
28.1% /
36.4% |
4.4 /
2.0 |
62 /
57 |
45.8% /
41.5% |
43.5% /
40.4% |
53.1% /
40.1% |
6.2 /
4.9 |
3.2% /
1.8% |
51.6% /
38.6% |
26.1 /
36.9 |
| 9 |
@CAR |
17 – 20 L |
-0.4 |
47.5% /
40.0% |
5.0% /
4.0% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
5.2 |
36.8% /
50.0% |
26.3% /
21.1% |
2.8 /
5.3 |
59 /
63 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
44.1% /
46.0% |
39.6% /
43.3% |
6.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
32.2% /
60.3% |
20.5 /
35.8 |
| 10 |
DAL |
27 – 7 W |
4.8 |
63.3% /
40.5% |
3.3% /
21.6% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
3.4 |
29.4% /
45.5% |
44.1% /
22.7% |
3.9 /
4.9 |
64 /
59 |
44.9% /
42.6% |
45.3% /
42.4% |
46.7% /
55.4% |
5.3 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
3.4% |
53.1% /
37.3% |
29.9 /
33.3 |
| 11 |
@SEA |
34 – 31 W |
8.5 |
53.6% /
48.9% |
3.6% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
34.4% /
65.2% |
21.9% /
21.7% |
2.8 /
5.9 |
60 /
68 |
40.5% /
57.4% |
43.3% /
54.4% |
37.7% /
46.7% |
4.7 /
5.3 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
53.3% /
33.8% |
33.0 /
36.4 |
| 12 |
TB |
34 – 20 W |
8.2 |
60.0% /
51.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.5 /
6.2 |
60.7% /
56.5% |
14.3% /
17.4% |
5.3 /
4.1 |
63 /
68 |
55.1% /
56.4% |
60.3% /
52.9% |
61.4% /
18.8% |
8.2 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
33.8% |
26.3 /
25.0 |
| 13 |
MIN |
9 – 14 L |
-0.7 |
34.5% /
62.5% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
45.5% /
44.1% |
22.7% /
17.6% |
4.6 /
3.2 |
51 /
66 |
46.2% /
59.2% |
39.2% /
53.0% |
23.3% /
16.5% |
5.4 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
51.5% |
22.4 /
25.9 |
| 14 |
NO |
20 – 17 W |
-1.9 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
3.6% /
5.4% |
11.1% /
2.9% |
7.5 /
6.9 |
56.4% /
46.7% |
23.1% /
33.3% |
3.4 /
3.3 |
67 /
52 |
56.9% /
53.7% |
53.7% /
50.0% |
40.9% /
53.6% |
5.1 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
58.2% /
28.8% |
24.0 /
26.6 |
| 15 |
@TB |
24 – 21 W |
5.0 |
43.8% /
60.0% |
3.1% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.5 /
8.3 |
57.1% /
66.7% |
17.1% /
22.2% |
5.7 /
4.7 |
67 /
53 |
48.1% /
64.4% |
50.7% /
62.3% |
48.8% /
29.0% |
6.1 /
7.0 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
52.2% /
34.0% |
24.0 /
26.5 |
| 16 |
@NO |
13 – 23 L |
-8.2 |
46.3% /
48.3% |
12.2% /
3.4% |
2.8% /
3.6% |
6.4 /
7.9 |
33.3% /
25.7% |
28.6% /
28.6% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
62 /
64 |
51.1% /
43.2% |
41.9% /
35.9% |
50.0% /
58.5% |
5.4 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
33.9% /
54.7% |
33.2 /
29.3 |
| 17 |
CAR |
22 – 10 W |
5.9 |
48.9% /
34.3% |
2.2% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
9.1% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
25.9% /
41.7% |
29.6% /
41.7% |
2.3 /
3.6 |
72 /
59 |
42.6% /
37.2% |
40.3% /
37.3% |
24.2% /
54.8% |
5.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.5% /
40.7% |
29.5 /
23.8 |
| 18 |
@LA |
26 – 13 W |
6.7 |
51.5% /
35.4% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.1 |
42.9% /
56.3% |
21.4% /
25.0% |
3.0 /
7.2 |
75 /
64 |
54.7% /
42.6% |
46.7% /
40.6% |
38.2% /
47.1% |
4.3 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
56.0% /
25.0% |
25.2 /
28.1 |
| 19 |
@PHI |
10 – 15 L |
0.2 |
38.5% /
61.3% |
7.7% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
34.3% |
30.0% /
28.6% |
4.3 /
2.8 |
59 /
66 |
40.9% /
51.1% |
39.0% /
47.0% |
45.6% /
34.1% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
33.9% /
53.0% |
29.0 /
20.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@WAS |
30 – 17 W |
5.1 |
51.2% /
38.6% |
4.9% /
9.1% |
2.6% /
2.5% |
7.3 /
4.5 |
36.0% /
58.8% |
28.0% /
23.5% |
2.4 /
3.8 |
66 /
61 |
44.0% /
49.0% |
45.5% /
44.3% |
37.8% /
38.3% |
5.4 /
4.3 |
1.5% /
4.9% |
37.9% /
27.9% |
31.8 /
26.1 |
| 2 |
@KC |
20 – 27 L |
-2.0 |
44.2% /
50.0% |
11.5% /
12.5% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.3 |
58.8% /
47.4% |
17.6% /
26.3% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
69 /
51 |
46.3% /
51.3% |
47.8% /
49.0% |
42.4% /
45.3% |
5.9 /
6.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.6% /
37.3% |
26.1 /
35.6 |
| 3 |
NYG |
27 – 24 W |
4.0 |
41.2% /
59.6% |
8.8% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
4.7 /
7.8 |
48.7% /
23.5% |
23.1% /
23.5% |
5.0 /
2.9 |
73 /
64 |
47.3% /
55.8% |
45.2% /
50.0% |
30.4% /
23.4% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
53.4% /
26.6% |
21.5 /
34.6 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
26 – 24 W |
6.2 |
46.9% /
42.5% |
3.1% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.5 /
8.6 |
47.7% /
38.5% |
20.5% /
46.2% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
76 /
53 |
47.3% /
39.5% |
47.4% /
41.5% |
56.1% /
68.3% |
6.0 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
57.9% /
24.5% |
22.1 /
22.2 |
| 5 |
ARI |
34 – 7 W |
16.7 |
48.4% /
41.3% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
9.6 /
6.0 |
28.6% /
21.4% |
22.9% /
35.7% |
3.5 /
2.2 |
66 /
60 |
33.3% /
37.2% |
37.9% /
36.7% |
52.3% /
20.2% |
6.4 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
53.0% /
23.3% |
34.1 /
19.3 |
| 6 |
@CAR |
28 – 23 W |
3.0 |
39.4% /
37.0% |
9.1% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
5.8% |
6.3 /
4.2 |
37.9% /
48.0% |
27.6% /
40.0% |
3.6 /
3.2 |
62 /
79 |
41.9% /
45.0% |
38.7% /
40.5% |
54.2% /
20.7% |
5.0 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
31.6% |
32.9 /
30.0 |
| 7 |
WAS |
34 – 24 W |
4.7 |
53.6% /
56.8% |
10.7% /
9.1% |
4.0% /
2.5% |
8.7 /
6.1 |
29.4% /
47.4% |
23.5% /
15.8% |
3.8 /
4.0 |
62 /
63 |
39.6% /
62.5% |
40.3% /
54.0% |
63.4% /
46.4% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
54.8% /
30.2% |
32.5 /
27.7 |
| 8 |
SF |
33 – 10 W |
11.9 |
42.9% /
32.5% |
8.6% /
10.0% |
3.1% /
5.6% |
5.5 /
3.6 |
39.4% /
41.7% |
27.3% /
41.7% |
3.5 /
3.9 |
68 /
64 |
46.9% /
40.8% |
41.2% /
35.9% |
44.4% /
38.2% |
4.5 /
3.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
48.5% /
37.5% |
29.0 /
28.5 |
| 9 |
DEN |
51 – 23 W |
19.2 |
50.0% /
36.6% |
6.7% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
7.4 /
4.7 |
47.4% /
36.8% |
26.3% /
31.6% |
5.2 /
1.8 |
68 /
60 |
53.1% /
39.1% |
48.5% /
36.7% |
52.9% /
27.4% |
6.2 /
3.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
55.9% /
31.7% |
37.7 /
26.1 |
| 11 |
@DAL |
37 – 9 W |
8.3 |
44.4% /
30.6% |
0.0% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
9.4% |
6.2 /
3.1 |
44.4% /
42.9% |
16.7% /
28.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
63 /
64 |
51.2% /
42.6% |
44.4% /
35.9% |
52.1% /
28.8% |
6.1 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
57.1% /
43.8% |
27.3 /
28.9 |
| 12 |
CHI |
31 – 3 W |
17.1 |
45.0% /
22.9% |
2.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
41.7% /
6.7% |
22.2% /
53.3% |
5.0 /
0.5 |
76 /
50 |
45.1% /
18.2% |
43.4% /
18.0% |
32.6% /
7.8% |
5.6 /
2.8 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
47.4% /
30.0% |
40.5 /
27.9 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
10 – 24 L |
-8.3 |
45.8% /
48.5% |
6.3% /
6.1% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
6.8 /
6.3 |
53.8% /
19.2% |
23.1% /
26.9% |
3.8 /
3.9 |
74 /
59 |
48.1% /
35.6% |
48.6% /
35.6% |
51.8% /
39.5% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
44.1% |
25.4 /
20.4 |
| 14 |
@LA |
43 – 35 W |
2.0 |
39.6% /
46.4% |
3.8% /
7.1% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
7.1 |
34.4% /
66.7% |
25.0% /
16.7% |
4.3 /
6.1 |
85 /
46 |
34.9% /
62.2% |
37.6% /
54.3% |
37.8% /
56.8% |
5.4 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
4.3% |
37.6% /
39.1% |
25.1 /
28.6 |
| 15 |
@NYG |
34 – 29 W |
-1.6 |
43.6% /
51.7% |
2.6% /
1.7% |
0.0% /
1.8% |
6.0 /
7.4 |
39.3% /
43.5% |
17.9% /
21.7% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
67 /
81 |
43.1% /
50.0% |
41.8% /
49.4% |
24.0% /
48.4% |
5.1 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
28.4% |
36.1 /
24.4 |
| 16 |
OAK |
19 – 10 W |
0.3 |
35.0% /
26.7% |
5.0% /
3.3% |
2.6% /
6.9% |
3.5 /
4.6 |
33.3% /
47.1% |
28.6% /
23.5% |
3.7 /
4.1 |
61 /
64 |
40.0% /
45.7% |
34.4% /
37.5% |
28.7% /
54.9% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
4.7% |
34.4% /
53.1% |
32.1 /
35.9 |
| 17 |
DAL |
0 – 6 L |
-1.3 |
40.5% /
35.5% |
8.1% /
3.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
5.5 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
27.8% /
21.9% |
3.9 /
4.0 |
55 /
63 |
52.4% /
38.3% |
43.6% /
36.5% |
10.0% /
44.2% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
1.8% /
1.6% |
32.7% /
50.8% |
22.7 /
27.7 |
| 19 |
ATL |
15 – 10 W |
-0.2 |
61.3% /
38.5% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
5.0 |
34.3% /
40.0% |
28.6% /
30.0% |
2.8 /
4.3 |
66 /
59 |
51.1% /
40.9% |
47.0% /
39.0% |
34.1% /
45.6% |
5.1 /
4.8 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
53.0% /
33.9% |
20.9 /
29.0 |
| 20 |
MIN |
38 – 7 W |
14.7 |
67.6% /
46.9% |
2.9% /
2.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
10.2 /
5.4 |
35.3% /
44.4% |
17.6% /
5.6% |
3.3 /
3.9 |
68 /
67 |
52.1% /
48.1% |
51.5% /
46.3% |
49.2% /
27.0% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
50.0% /
26.9% |
22.7 /
24.3 |
| 21 |
@NE |
41 – 33 W |
4.8 |
59.1% /
54.2% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
10.4 |
51.9% /
63.6% |
11.1% /
4.5% |
6.1 /
5.1 |
71 /
70 |
52.8% /
58.6% |
56.3% /
57.1% |
46.5% /
56.1% |
7.6 /
8.8 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.0% /
31.4% |
29.3 /
22.6 |
Atlanta Falcons
@ 
Philadelphia Eagles