Game Analysis

Lean – NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Atlanta

Lean – Under (43.5)

· Desmond Ridder will make his first NFL start on Sunday and we are going to make him 1.5 points worse than Marcus Mariota for now.

· Ridder should have similar mobility to Mariota, and it wasn’t as if Mariota was lighting the world on fire with his passing. Atlanta’s offense has had a league-low 71.5% catchable pass rate this season.

· Ridder will face a Saints defense that might be fully healthy for the first game since October. Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore should be back on the field as well as linebacker Pete Werner, who ranked 14th in coverage grade by PFF before undergoing midseason surgery for a right ankle injury. Lattimore has been mostly out in 2022 but ranked 13th in coverage grade by PFF last season.

· New Orleans are allowing 0.008 EPA/play this season (13th), but they could improve towards the -0.101 EPA/play they averaged last year (2nd) with all of the starters back in uniform.

· The Falcons are gaining 0.017 EPA/rush (6th), but the Saints are conceding just a 40% rush success rate (9th) and Ridder will likely be called upon to make some plays with his arm.

· Andy Dalton will get his starting center Erik McCoy back in the lineup this week to limit Atlanta interior defender Grady Jarrett, who has 38 pressures (10th).

· New Orleans WR Chris Olave has a 58.5% success rate (11th) and the rookie receiver has a favorable matchup across from backup cornerback Darren Hall.

· Somehow neither of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs yet with the Saints at 4-9 and the Falcons 5-8.

· Our model makes New Orleans a 3.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.2 points but the Saints apply to a 40-8-2 ATS subset of a 97-41-4 ATS situation.