Atlanta Falcons @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 453
Odds: New Orleans Saints -3.5, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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Note: Line was Atlanta +5 when I posted the analysis on Thursday morning. Still lean with Atlanta at +3.5

Lean – Atlanta (+5/+3.5) over NEW ORLEANS

Drew Brees suffered broken ribs and a partially collapsed lung and he is expected to miss at least two games. Last week, Jameis Winston played 32 of 35 second half snaps while Taysom Hill played 15 snaps and I think it’s safe to say Winston will be the starter. Winston’s 5.1 air yards per attempt was a career low and I’m not sure the Saints will have enough time to adjust their game plan to fit his playing style. Winston’s average depth of target is a league-high 11.0 yards since 2017 and no other qualifying quarterback is above 10 yards. Limiting Winston’s air yards takes away some of his strengths but it also will keep him from throwing interceptions at the historically bad rate he threw them in Tampa Bay last season. Last year, Michael Thomas had a league-high 88% catch rate on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield, but we might not see Winston looking deep like he did in Tampa Bay until next week. Alvin Kamara has still averaged six receptions per game even with Thomas back in the lineup the previous two weeks. The Saints attacked Dre Greenlaw last Sunday with seven targets for 87 yards against the 49ers linebacker, but that approach won’t work this week against Falcons’ LB Deion Jones, who is allowing only 0.43 yards per cover snap – the best mark in the NFL among linebackers. Saints’ RG Cesar Ruiz ranks 51st out of 56 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and he will struggle to contain Grady Jarrett, who has 38 pressures from the interior (3rd).

Julio Jones is averaging 2.65 yards per route run (4th) but he won’t have it easy this week lining up across from Marshon Lattimore if Lattimore is healthy (the Pro Bowl cornerback left last week’s game early with an oblique injury and may still be banged-up this Sunday). Matt Ryan will be happy to have Calvin Ridley (8th in yards per route run) back on the field after sitting out their last game before the bye with a left mid-foot sprain.

Our model favors the Saints by only 1.9 points, with a predicted total of 49.5 points, but the Falcons do apply to a 59-133-5 ATS underdog off two wins letdown situation. The situation will keep Atlanta from being a play but I’ll lean with the Falcons.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Saints
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.2 40.7
  • Succ Pass Plays 51.3% 50.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.2% 4.1%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 2.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 23.9%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.3% 48.6%
  • NYPP 7.0 7.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.0 23.0
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 21.3% 23.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.7% 47.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.4% 45.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.8 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 70.2 63.7
  • Early Down Succ 51.1% 53.1%
  • Succ Rate 49.1% 49.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 37.9% 47.6%
  • Yards Per Play 5.6 6.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.2 26.8
  • Run Ratio 41.3% 36.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.4 27.7
  • Game Control 3.1 -3.1
 
  • Points 27.0 27.9
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