Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – NEW ORLEANS (-5.5) over Atlanta

Lean – Under (52.5)

The Saints have the best rushing offense in the league but they weren’t able to deploy it against the Falcons two weeks ago due to Alvin Kamara’s injury early in the game. Fellow Pro-Bowl back Mark Ingram has been really good (5.1 ypr) but Kamara is the star, as he not only averages 6.6 ypr but is also the Saints’ 2^nd leading receiver while averaging 8.1 yards per target, which is really good for a running back. New Orleans ran for just 50 yards in Atlanta, the only time they’ve been held under 100 yards rushing since their bye week in week 5. I expect the Saints’ ground game to be more successful against Atlanta’s 24th-ranked rush defense this time around with a healthy Kamara.

New Orleans limited the Falcons’ offense to just 5.3 yards per play on the road in week 14 and I expect them to have similar success on Sunday. My model sees enough value on New Orleans to consider the Saints a Strong Opinion at -6 points or less and our model leans under the total.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Saints

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.2 37.3
Succ Pass Plays 50.8% 47.6%
Sack Rate 3.9% 7.1%
Int Rate 2.4% 0.7%
Deep Pass Rate 20.8% 15.3%
Big Pass Yards 38.9% 31.1%
NYPP 7.4 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 28.0 25.6
RB YPR 4.3 3.8
Stuff Rate 24.4% 22.9%
Succ Rush Plays 46.7% 49.0%
Big Rush Yards 45.6% 36.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.4 4.2

Game

All Snaps 61.2 62.9
Early Down Succ 50.9% 50.8%
Succ Rate 48.8% 48.1%
Big Yards Rate 41.7% 34.3%
Yards Per Play 6.0 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 29.0
Run Ratio 45.5% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 24.8 29.1
Game Control 2.7 -2.7

Points 22.7 20.1

NOR

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.2 35.9
Succ Pass Plays 51.4% 41.9%
Sack Rate 3.4% 6.8%
Int Rate 1.4% 3.4%
Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 18.9%
Big Pass Yards 49.1% 41.0%
NYPP 7.6 5.9

Rush

Rush Plays 28.9 26.1
RB YPR 4.7 4.1
Stuff Rate 17.3% 24.7%
Succ Rush Plays 46.1% 47.9%
Big Rush Yards 52.2% 47.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.5

Game

All Snaps 64.1 62.0
Early Down Succ 53.1% 47.2%
Succ Rate 49.3% 44.6%
Big Yards Rate 51.0% 45.3%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.4%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.1 28.2
Run Ratio 44.3% 42.1%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 25.4
Game Control 3.7 -3.7

Points 28.6 20.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	23 – 17 W	2.5	50.0% / 31.8%	6.3% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 4.0	32.0% / 52.6%	24.0% / 15.8%	2.6 / 6.6	57 / 63	45.2% / 37.5%	42.1% / 38.1%	49.7% / 31.2%	6.6 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 30.2%	18.3 / 28.1
2	GB	34 – 23 W	12.4	51.6% / 50.9%	9.7% / 5.7%	0.0% / 2.0%	7.2 / 5.8	55.6% / 56.3%	18.5% / 25.0%	5.2 / 3.8	58 / 69	55.3% / 53.8%	53.4% / 52.2%	50.0% / 24.2%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 23.2%	26.7 / 22.1
3	@DET	30 – 26 W	6.3	48.6% / 40.4%	5.4% / 4.3%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.5 / 5.4	48.3% / 31.6%	13.8% / 26.3%	5.2 / 3.7	66 / 66	50.9% / 41.5%	48.5% / 37.9%	34.7% / 31.8%	6.5 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.9% / 28.8%	27.8 / 29.7
4	BUF	17 – 23 L	-2.0	48.8% / 43.5%	2.3% / 13.0%	4.8% / 0.0%	5.6 / 7.1	58.6% / 44.7%	27.6% / 23.7%	5.1 / 3.1	72 / 61	56.1% / 47.7%	52.8% / 44.3%	30.9% / 27.6%	5.4 / 4.6	1.4% / 0.0%	40.3% / 62.3%	25.9 / 21.9
6	MIA	17 – 20 L	7.7	50.0% / 45.5%	5.6% / 0.0%	2.9% / 3.0%	6.6 / 4.6	47.4% / 46.9%	42.1% / 25.0%	5.3 / 4.3	55 / 65	48.8% / 47.9%	49.1% / 46.2%	40.1% / 23.8%	6.2 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	34.5% / 49.2%	20.7 / 30.2
7	@NE	7 – 23 L	-11.4	58.8% / 48.4%	2.9% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.8	54.5% / 56.4%	18.2% / 12.8%	5.5 / 4.2	56 / 70	65.9% / 57.7%	57.1% / 52.9%	26.8% / 38.4%	6.1 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 55.7%	21.9 / 28.8
8	@NYJ	25 – 20 W	-1.1	50.0% / 51.4%	3.3% / 8.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.7	37.5% / 22.7%	28.1% / 36.4%	4.4 / 2.0	62 / 57	45.8% / 41.5%	43.5% / 40.4%	53.1% / 40.1%	6.2 / 4.9	3.2% / 1.8%	51.6% / 38.6%	26.1 / 36.9
9	@CAR	17 – 20 L	-0.4	47.5% / 40.0%	5.0% / 4.0%	2.6% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.2	36.8% / 50.0%	26.3% / 21.1%	2.8 / 5.3	59 / 63	52.4% / 50.0%	44.1% / 46.0%	39.6% / 43.3%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 3.2%	32.2% / 60.3%	20.5 / 35.8
10	DAL	27 – 7 W	4.8	63.3% / 40.5%	3.3% / 21.6%	3.4% / 0.0%	6.8 / 3.4	29.4% / 45.5%	44.1% / 22.7%	3.9 / 4.9	64 / 59	44.9% / 42.6%	45.3% / 42.4%	46.7% / 55.4%	5.3 / 3.9	0.0% / 3.4%	53.1% / 37.3%	29.9 / 33.3
11	@SEA	34 – 31 W	8.5	53.6% / 48.9%	3.6% / 6.7%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.8 / 5.0	34.4% / 65.2%	21.9% / 21.7%	2.8 / 5.9	60 / 68	40.5% / 57.4%	43.3% / 54.4%	37.7% / 46.7%	4.7 / 5.3	1.7% / 1.5%	53.3% / 33.8%	33.0 / 36.4
12	TB	34 – 20 W	8.2	60.0% / 51.1%	0.0% / 2.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	10.5 / 6.2	60.7% / 56.5%	14.3% / 17.4%	5.3 / 4.1	63 / 68	55.1% / 56.4%	60.3% / 52.9%	61.4% / 18.8%	8.2 / 5.5	1.6% / 0.0%	44.4% / 33.8%	26.3 / 25.0
13	MIN	9 – 14 L	-0.7	34.5% / 62.5%	0.0% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.5	45.5% / 44.1%	22.7% / 17.6%	4.6 / 3.2	51 / 66	46.2% / 59.2%	39.2% / 53.0%	23.3% / 16.5%	5.4 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 51.5%	22.4 / 25.9
14	NO	20 – 17 W	-1.9	50.0% / 51.4%	3.6% / 5.4%	11.1% / 2.9%	7.5 / 6.9	56.4% / 46.7%	23.1% / 33.3%	3.4 / 3.3	67 / 52	56.9% / 53.7%	53.7% / 50.0%	40.9% / 53.6%	5.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	58.2% / 28.8%	24.0 / 26.6
15	@TB	24 – 21 W	5.0	43.8% / 60.0%	3.1% / 5.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 8.3	57.1% / 66.7%	17.1% / 22.2%	5.7 / 4.7	67 / 53	48.1% / 64.4%	50.7% / 62.3%	48.8% / 29.0%	6.1 / 7.0	0.0% / 1.9%	52.2% / 34.0%	23.6 / 26.3

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@MIN	19 – 29 L	-6.6	60.5% / 63.6%	2.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 10.3	28.6% / 27.3%	14.3% / 33.3%	2.9 / 4.0	59 / 66	52.1% / 44.7%	49.2% / 45.5%	29.9% / 68.0%	5.8 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.6% / 50.0%	22.4 / 24.9
2	NE	20 – 36 L	-14.2	51.1% / 61.0%	2.2% / 4.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 10.6	47.1% / 51.6%	11.8% / 22.6%	4.8 / 3.8	62 / 72	54.2% / 58.3%	50.0% / 56.9%	48.3% / 53.2%	6.9 / 7.7	0.0% / 0.0%	27.4% / 43.1%	27.9 / 27.5
3	@CAR	34 – 13 W	8.6	46.7% / 43.2%	3.3% / 10.8%	0.0% / 9.1%	7.1 / 4.2	55.6% / 77.3%	25.9% / 4.5%	5.5 / 6.0	57 / 59	51.1% / 57.8%	50.9% / 55.9%	55.5% / 40.3%	6.4 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 37.3%	37.8 / 25.2
4	@MIA	20 – 0 W	5.5	48.8% / 37.5%	2.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 3.6%	6.4 / 4.0	46.4% / 60.0%	14.3% / 40.0%	3.1 / 3.9	69 / 47	46.3% / 52.6%	47.8% / 44.7%	46.1% / 31.7%	5.0 / 4.0	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 31.9%	28.8 / 27.0
6	DET	52 – 38 W	15.8	45.2% / 35.1%	0.0% / 8.8%	6.5% / 5.8%	6.0 / 4.9	45.9% / 15.8%	13.5% / 36.8%	5.2 / 3.5	68 / 76	50.9% / 24.6%	45.6% / 30.3%	51.7% / 53.3%	5.6 / 4.6	1.5% / 2.6%	54.4% / 25.0%	29.4 / 27.6
7	@GB	26 – 17 W	-2.5	59.0% / 23.1%	2.6% / 3.8%	5.3% / 4.0%	8.3 / 3.0	53.8% / 70.8%	12.8% / 16.7%	4.2 / 7.5	78 / 50	61.4% / 48.7%	56.4% / 46.0%	49.2% / 45.4%	6.3 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 48.0%	30.1 / 18.2
8	CHI	20 – 12 W	7.8	50.0% / 32.4%	6.7% / 5.9%	0.0% / 3.1%	9.5 / 4.4	36.4% / 45.2%	18.2% / 32.3%	3.2 / 5.1	63 / 65	52.1% / 36.2%	42.9% / 38.5%	57.9% / 61.2%	6.2 / 4.7	3.2% / 0.0%	52.4% / 47.7%	30.8 / 24.8
9	TB	30 – 10 W	15.2	67.9% / 37.5%	3.6% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.1 / 3.5	41.7% / 44.0%	8.3% / 24.0%	4.3 / 3.5	64 / 57	57.8% / 43.2%	53.1% / 40.4%	49.3% / 13.0%	6.4 / 3.5	3.1% / 1.8%	56.3% / 43.9%	26.6 / 31.5
10	@BUF	47 – 10 W	17.6	44.0% / 40.0%	0.0% / 6.7%	0.0% / 3.6%	7.4 / 4.3	62.7% / 40.0%	11.8% / 46.7%	5.9 / 4.6	76 / 45	62.5% / 48.5%	56.6% / 40.0%	56.4% / 35.4%	6.4 / 4.4	1.3% / 0.0%	67.1% / 33.3%	39.7 / 21.9
11	WAS	34 – 31 W	-5.7	57.1% / 47.1%	4.8% / 5.9%	2.5% / 0.0%	8.9 / 8.8	60.9% / 51.5%	17.4% / 12.1%	7.0 / 4.7	65 / 67	62.3% / 50.9%	58.5% / 49.3%	54.2% / 47.8%	8.2 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	35.4% / 49.3%	24.3 / 23.4
12	@LA	20 – 26 L	-7.2	45.7% / 45.8%	8.6% / 8.3%	0.0% / 2.3%	6.4 / 6.8	47.1% / 32.1%	11.8% / 21.4%	7.2 / 3.3	52 / 76	52.6% / 49.1%	46.2% / 40.8%	51.2% / 61.0%	6.7 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	32.7% / 36.8%	21.2 / 26.2
13	CAR	31 – 21 W	8.7	41.7% / 40.0%	5.6% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 5.6	31.3% / 52.2%	28.1% / 17.4%	4.7 / 4.9	68 / 53	39.1% / 51.2%	36.8% / 45.3%	57.6% / 38.4%	5.9 / 5.3	1.5% / 1.9%	47.1% / 43.4%	32.1 / 27.8
14	@ATL	17 – 20 L	1.9	51.4% / 50.0%	5.4% / 3.6%	2.9% / 11.1%	6.9 / 7.5	46.7% / 56.4%	33.3% / 23.1%	3.3 / 3.4	52 / 67	53.7% / 56.9%	50.0% / 53.7%	53.6% / 40.9%	5.9 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 58.2%	26.6 / 24.0
15	NYJ	31 – 19 W	6.4	50.0% / 30.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	2.8% / 5.1%	7.9 / 4.3	41.4% / 46.4%	20.7% / 14.3%	4.6 / 4.4	65 / 68	48.1% / 38.5%	46.2% / 36.8%	53.0% / 44.9%	6.4 / 4.3	3.1% / 0.0%	44.6% / 41.2%	31.3 / 25.9

Atlanta Falcons @

New Orleans Saints

Sun, Dec 24

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis