Game Analysis

Note: The line on this game has moved up to -6 since we released it early in the week. The Vikings are a Strong Opinion at -6.

1-Star Best Bet – *MINNESOTA (-5) over Atlanta

Lean – Over (45.5)

• Kirk Cousins has struggled this season when he’s stepped up in class because he doesn’t have the pocket mobility or arm strength coming off the Achilles surgery. Cousins had gone against three defenses ranked in the top 5 in EPA/dropback allowed. He averaged 4.9 yppp in week 1 versus the Steelers, was held to 6 points in Denver, and threw 4 interceptions last week against the Chargers. Minnesota’s defense is conceding -0.04 EPA/dropback (4th).
• The Vikings will challenge Cousins’s pocket mobility, as they lead the NFL with a 51% blitz rate. The Falcons have a 4.9% turnover-worthy play rate (31st) and I expect the Vikings to get at least 1 interception in Cousins’s homecoming game.
• Atlanta’s offense has a 44% rush success rate (8th) but Cousins will not be able to lean on the ground attack as Minnesota’s defense is allowing a league-low -0.27 EPA/rush.
• Falcons’ RB Bijan Robinson is averaging 0.20 EPA/target (2nd) but he will also be contained in the screen game as the Vikings are conceding just a 35% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (2nd).
• Minnesota CB Shaquill Griffin is conceding just 0.70 yards per cover snap (6th) and he will limit WR Drake London, whose 58% success rate ranks 13th.
• Sam Darnold has completed 23 deep balls this year (2nd) and he will have plenty of time to look downfield against a Falcons’ defense that has just a 27% pressure rate (31st).
• Our model favors the Vikings by 9.1 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points (and a 40-7 Over angle applies).

Minnesota is a 1-Star Best Bet at -5.5 or less (Strong Opinion at -6).