Atlanta Falcons @

Miami Dolphins

Sun, Oct 24
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 459
Odds: Miami Dolphins +2.5, Total: 47.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – MIAMI (+2.5) over Atlanta

The Dolphins did not stretch the field against a Jaguars pass defense ranked 29th last week as 55% of Tua Tagovailoa’s attempts were short of the sticks. However, Miami will potentially have WR¬†DeVante Parker back in uniform after missing the last two games with hamstring and shoulder injuries. Parker leads the team averaging 1.5 deep targets per game and Tagovailoa might look downfield more often on Sunday.

Neither Xavien Howard or Byron Jones were able to suit up in London but the Dolphins should have both starting cornerbacks back on the field this week.¬†Matt Ryan’s top WR Calvin Ridley will make his return after missing the game against the Jets. Ridley is averaging nearly a half yard per route run more than backup wide receiver Tajae Sharpe.

Miami opted to play this week rather than taking a bye like every other team did coming back from London. The market disagrees with this decision with Atlanta moving from pick to -2.5. I don’t think it will have a huge affect on the game as the Dolphins were back in Miami on Monday.

Our model favors the Falcons by 0.3 with a predicted total of 46.4.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Dolphins
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 42.67 36.67
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 51.1%
  • Sack Rate 3.7% 4.5%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 1.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 12.8% 18.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.3% 32.4%
  • NYPP 5.92 6.76



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.17 25.67
  • RB YPR 3.58 3.73
  • Stuff Rate 22.4% 19.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 37.1% 58.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.7% 26.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.58 4.28




Game

  • All Snaps 66.83 62.33
  • Early Down Succ 44.3% 56.8%
  • Succ Rate 43.9% 53.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 35.2% 31.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.11 5.73
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.18 28.37
  • Run Ratio 36.1% 40.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -0.58 0.58
 
  • Points 22.50 29.33
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