Atlanta Falcons @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 27
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -11, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – KANSAS CITY (-11) over Atlanta

Note: Falcons’ top WR Julio Jones is a late scratch, as are LG James Carpenter and C Alex Mack.

The Saints generated pressure on 40% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks last week, which was the highest pressure rate Kansas City’s offensive line has allowed this year. RT Mike Remmers should be back on the field this week and Mahomes will have more time to look downfield. Tyreek Hill is running more than half his routes from the slot and he should have a big game against Falcons’ CB Isaiah Oliver, who is surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 23rd out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks.

Calvin Ridley had 10 receptions for the first time in his career last week with eight of them gaining 10+ yards. Julio Jones is out for a third straight week with a hamstring injury. It won’t be easy for Ridley though, as Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland are conceding just 0.81 yards per cover snap combined. Matt Ryan could be facing some heat from up the middle due to a revolving door on the offensive line. Starting LG James Carpenter and C Alex Mack are both out today and backup G Justin McCray has surrendered 11 pressures in only 96 pass blocking snaps thus far and will not be able to stay in front of interior defender Chris Jones (4th in pass rushing efficiency).

Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.4 points, but the matchups strongly favor KC and the Chiefs are a Strong Opinion at -12 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Chiefs
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.8 40.6
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.2% 49.3%
  • Sack Rate 6.1% 5.2%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 1.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.1% 20.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.6% 39.9%
  • NYPP 6.6 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.8 24.1
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 20.3% 24.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.1% 46.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.7% 45.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 4.2




Game

  • All Snaps 67.6 64.6
  • Early Down Succ 47.2% 51.5%
  • Succ Rate 46.3% 48.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.2% 42.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.4 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.6
  • Run Ratio 37.9% 37.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.1 28.1
  • Game Control 3.0 -3.0
 
  • Points 25.4 25.2
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