Game Analysis
Atlanta (-2) vs JACKSONVILLE
The Falcons were shut out last week but I’m mostly going to give them a pass as they had a rookie head coach preparing for his first Thursday night game missing 40% of the team’s receiving yards. Arthur Smith should put together a much better scheme this week with nine days to prepare. Furthermore, Cordarrelle Patterson will likely suit up on Sunday and he is leading all running backs averaging 3.22 yards per route run. Edge defender Josh Allen is Jacksonville’s major pass rushing threat with 39 pressures (14th) but he will be shut down by LT Jake Matthews, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Matt Ryan should have time in the pocket to pick apart a Jaguars secondary that could be without top CB Shaquill Griffin due to a concussion.
Jacksonville WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault each have 40 targets in the last 7 games since DJ Chark was lost for the season with a broken ankle, but Trevor Lawrence’s top receivers have vastly different outlooks on Sunday. Falcons CB AJ Terrell is conceding just one reception every 15.8 cover snaps (5th) and he will shut down Jones. Atlanta’s nickelbacks are surrendering 1.33 yards per route run to opposing slot receivers and will struggle with Shenault.
Our model favors the Falcons by 0.6 points with a predicted total of 44.2 points, but the matchups strongly favor Atlanta and that’s who I took in my pool.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.30
35.40
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.2%
51.1%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
4.0%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.5%
17.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
31.7%
28.4%
-
NYPP
6.00
6.75
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.00
29.30
-
RB YPR
3.43
3.81
-
Stuff Rate
26.1%
20.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.1%
53.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.1%
31.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.42
4.21
Game
-
All Snaps
61.30
64.70
-
Early Down Succ
44.6%
55.0%
-
Succ Rate
42.4%
52.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
34.0%
29.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.03
5.60
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.71
29.28
-
Run Ratio
37.5%
45.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-3.02
3.02
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.70
34.80
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.1%
50.3%
-
Sack Rate
5.0%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
17.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.4%
41.9%
-
NYPP
5.49
7.20
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.70
28.70
-
RB YPR
4.89
3.69
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
52.0%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.9%
33.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.96
3.92
Game
-
All Snaps
60.40
63.50
-
Early Down Succ
52.6%
52.6%
-
Succ Rate
47.7%
49.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.0%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.29
5.72
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.52
31.40
-
Run Ratio
37.6%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-6.49
6.49
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
PHI |
6 – 32 L |
-7.50 |
39.5% / 55.6% |
7.9% / 2.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.58 / 7.25 |
42.3% / 58.1% |
26.9% / 12.9% |
4.77 / 5.58 |
64 / 67 |
47.8% / 61.5% |
40.6% / 56.7% |
24.3% / 35.5% |
4.06 / 6.48 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
40.6% / 46.3% |
20.00 / 35.00 |
2 |
@TB |
25 – 48 L |
-9.88 |
46.9% / 48.7% |
2.0% / 7.7% |
6.3% / 0.0% |
5.98 / 6.64 |
30.0% / 57.1% |
40.0% / 28.6% |
2.75 / 3.90 |
69 / 60 |
44.0% / 57.8% |
42.0% / 51.7% |
35.5% / 44.1% |
5.04 / 5.68 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
29.0% / 35.0% |
27.29 / 39.75 |
3 |
@NYG |
17 – 14 W |
-2.05 |
41.0% / 51.4% |
7.7% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.82 / 6.65 |
30.0% / 55.6% |
15.0% / 29.6% |
3.45 / 3.70 |
59 / 64 |
38.6% / 56.3% |
37.3% / 53.1% |
42.0% / 20.8% |
5.02 / 5.41 |
1.7% / 1.6% |
33.9% / 42.2% |
29.40 / 22.40 |
4 |
WAS |
30 – 34 L |
3.18 |
51.2% / 52.9% |
2.3% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.40 / 8.53 |
39.3% / 53.6% |
21.4% / 21.4% |
3.54 / 4.36 |
71 / 62 |
41.8% / 56.0% |
46.5% / 53.2% |
30.4% / 46.4% |
5.27 / 6.65 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
39.4% / 45.2% |
25.10 / 27.89 |
5 |
NYJ |
27 – 20 W |
9.52 |
54.3% / 41.2% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
7.43 / 4.88 |
44.8% / 72.2% |
17.2% / 11.1% |
3.72 / 3.56 |
75 / 52 |
46.7% / 55.0% |
50.7% / 51.9% |
27.1% / 27.3% |
6.00 / 4.42 |
2.7% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 34.6% |
29.20 / 28.11 |
7 |
@MIA |
30 – 28 W |
2.83 |
51.2% / 58.5% |
2.4% / 2.4% |
2.5% / 5.0% |
7.93 / 6.85 |
36.4% / 51.7% |
13.6% / 10.3% |
3.27 / 4.55 |
63 / 70 |
46.9% / 55.2% |
46.0% / 55.7% |
52.0% / 12.5% |
6.30 / 5.90 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 41.4% |
29.18 / 31.90 |
8 |
CAR |
13 – 19 L |
0.36 |
43.3% / 40.0% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
7.4% / 0.0% |
4.37 / 5.16 |
45.0% / 59.6% |
25.0% / 17.0% |
4.10 / 4.32 |
50 / 72 |
47.4% / 50.9% |
44.0% / 52.8% |
14.0% / 26.5% |
4.26 / 4.61 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
40.0% / 65.3% |
31.10 / 27.45 |
9 |
@NO |
27 – 25 W |
6.11 |
56.3% / 50.0% |
6.3% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.38 / 6.07 |
16.0% / 44.0% |
44.0% / 16.0% |
1.36 / 4.36 |
57 / 69 |
40.5% / 52.6% |
38.6% / 47.8% |
54.6% / 23.5% |
6.42 / 5.45 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
43.9% / 36.2% |
29.27 / 33.20 |
10 |
@DAL |
3 – 43 L |
-23.04 |
31.0% / 57.1% |
6.9% / 0.0% |
11.1% / 0.0% |
3.83 / 9.06 |
41.7% / 43.2% |
20.8% / 21.6% |
4.29 / 3.08 |
53 / 72 |
46.2% / 49.1% |
35.8% / 50.0% |
26.5% / 30.2% |
4.04 / 5.99 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
45.3% / 51.4% |
26.75 / 29.73 |
11 |
NE |
0 – 25 L |
-9.70 |
41.7% / 51.7% |
11.1% / 10.3% |
12.5% / 3.8% |
3.47 / 6.00 |
31.3% / 50.0% |
43.8% / 33.3% |
2.50 / 4.47 |
52 / 59 |
45.9% / 57.8% |
38.5% / 50.8% |
11.1% / 25.5% |
3.17 / 5.22 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.8% / 50.8% |
0.00 / 0.00 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HST |
21 – 37 L |
-14.37 |
38.5% / 55.9% |
1.9% / 2.9% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
6.13 / 8.50 |
62.5% / 48.8% |
18.8% / 19.5% |
4.75 / 3.90 |
68 / 75 |
47.3% / 50.9% |
44.1% / 52.0% |
38.7% / 46.6% |
5.81 / 5.99 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.5% / 54.7% |
21.36 / 33.43 |
2 |
DEN |
13 – 23 L |
-3.44 |
32.4% / 51.4% |
2.9% / 8.1% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
3.35 / 8.16 |
50.0% / 46.7% |
18.8% / 33.3% |
4.69 / 3.20 |
50 / 67 |
36.8% / 56.9% |
38.0% / 49.3% |
42.5% / 34.9% |
3.78 / 5.94 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
32.0% / 44.8% |
20.67 / 32.09 |
3 |
ARZ |
19 – 31 L |
-3.29 |
51.4% / 61.8% |
8.1% / 0.0% |
5.9% / 2.9% |
5.46 / 9.29 |
65.5% / 56.7% |
17.2% / 23.3% |
5.48 / 3.03 |
66 / 64 |
67.3% / 66.0% |
57.6% / 59.4% |
32.0% / 34.9% |
5.47 / 6.36 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
43.9% / 46.9% |
25.67 / 21.91 |
4 |
@CIN |
21 – 24 L |
4.43 |
60.0% / 54.5% |
4.0% / 3.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.08 / 10.36 |
53.3% / 45.5% |
13.3% / 18.2% |
4.63 / 3.55 |
55 / 55 |
60.0% / 51.1% |
56.4% / 50.9% |
47.8% / 49.8% |
6.20 / 7.64 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
54.5% / 40.0% |
27.00 / 17.33 |
5 |
TEN |
19 – 37 L |
-9.28 |
54.3% / 40.0% |
5.7% / 12.0% |
3.0% / 0.0% |
7.31 / 7.36 |
61.3% / 63.9% |
19.4% / 13.9% |
6.39 / 5.11 |
66 / 61 |
65.4% / 57.4% |
57.6% / 54.1% |
41.4% / 45.9% |
6.88 / 6.03 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.0% / 59.0% |
24.73 / 30.78 |
6 |
MIA |
23 – 20 W |
-1.94 |
51.2% / 50.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.1% |
7.26 / 7.38 |
31.6% / 40.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
4.42 / 3.85 |
62 / 68 |
51.1% / 44.9% |
45.2% / 47.1% |
44.2% / 40.6% |
6.39 / 6.34 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
30.6% / 29.4% |
29.73 / 25.91 |
8 |
@SEA |
7 – 31 L |
-14.52 |
52.7% / 51.9% |
1.8% / 11.1% |
1.9% / 0.0% |
4.13 / 5.93 |
47.4% / 44.0% |
10.5% / 32.0% |
4.32 / 2.76 |
74 / 52 |
57.1% / 53.8% |
51.4% / 48.1% |
4.4% / 36.0% |
4.18 / 4.40 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.7% / 48.1% |
22.09 / 34.11 |
9 |
BUF |
9 – 6 W |
0.59 |
33.3% / 43.1% |
6.7% / 7.8% |
0.0% / 4.3% |
4.63 / 4.49 |
33.3% / 35.7% |
37.0% / 21.4% |
2.93 / 5.14 |
57 / 65 |
36.6% / 45.7% |
33.3% / 41.5% |
33.5% / 29.5% |
3.82 / 4.63 |
1.8% / 1.5% |
47.4% / 21.5% |
32.90 / 27.67 |
10 |
@IND |
17 – 23 L |
-8.74 |
34.2% / 34.3% |
7.9% / 2.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.00 / 4.80 |
58.3% / 48.1% |
16.7% / 29.6% |
7.46 / 4.70 |
62 / 62 |
50.0% / 45.7% |
43.5% / 40.3% |
49.0% / 26.4% |
5.34 / 4.76 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 43.5% |
26.62 / 25.50 |
11 |
SF |
10 – 30 L |
-14.29 |
42.9% / 66.7% |
10.7% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.21 / 6.75 |
50.0% / 42.9% |
18.8% / 26.2% |
3.38 / 4.07 |
44 / 66 |
45.2% / 51.9% |
45.5% / 51.5% |
15.1% / 42.9% |
4.55 / 5.05 |
4.5% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 63.6% |
0.00 / 0.00 |