Atlanta Falcons @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 28
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 259
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +2, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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Atlanta (-2) vs JACKSONVILLE

The Falcons were shut out last week but I’m mostly going to give them a pass as they had a rookie head coach preparing for his first Thursday night game missing 40% of the team’s receiving yards. Arthur Smith should put together a much better scheme this week with nine days to prepare. Furthermore, Cordarrelle Patterson will likely suit up on Sunday and he is leading all running backs averaging 3.22 yards per route run. Edge defender Josh Allen is Jacksonville’s major pass rushing threat with 39 pressures (14th) but he will be shut down by LT Jake Matthews, who ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency. Matt Ryan should have time in the pocket to pick apart a Jaguars secondary that could be without top CB Shaquill Griffin due to a concussion.

Jacksonville WRs Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault each have 40 targets in the last 7 games since DJ Chark was lost for the season with a broken ankle, but Trevor Lawrence’s top receivers have vastly different outlooks on Sunday. Falcons CB AJ Terrell is conceding just one reception every 15.8 cover snaps (5th) and he will shut down Jones. Atlanta’s nickelbacks are surrendering 1.33 yards per route run to opposing slot receivers and will struggle with Shenault.

Our model favors the Falcons by 0.6 points with a predicted total of 44.2 points, but the matchups strongly favor Atlanta and that’s who I took in my pool.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Jaguars
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.30 35.40
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.2% 51.1%
  • Sack Rate 5.2% 4.0%
  • Int Rate 3.6% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.5% 17.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 31.7% 28.4%
  • NYPP 6.00 6.75



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.00 29.30
  • RB YPR 3.43 3.81
  • Stuff Rate 26.1% 20.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 36.1% 53.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.1% 31.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.42 4.21




Game

  • All Snaps 61.30 64.70
  • Early Down Succ 44.6% 55.0%
  • Succ Rate 42.4% 52.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.0% 29.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.03 5.60
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.71 29.28
  • Run Ratio 37.5% 45.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -3.02 3.02
 
  • Points 17.80 28.80
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