Atlanta Falcons @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 6
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Houston Texans -5, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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Lean – Atlanta (+5) over HOUSTON

You’d think this would’ve been Atlanta’s year with Drew Brees and Cam Newton on the sideline injured, but the Falcons are just 1-3 through the first quarter of the season and Dan Quinn could be fired as soon as next week if things go poorly in Houston on Sunday. The Texans’ pass defense ranks 26th so I’m expecting solid outings from Matt Ryan and receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Austin Hooper is gaining 2.06 yards per route run (9th) but will likely be limited by a Houston defense allowing only 5.0 yards per target to opposing tight ends (2nd) with safety Tashaun Gipson coming over from Jacksonville in the offseason. The Falcons ground game ranks 29th so far but has a chance to turn it around versus a Texans rush defense rated 27th.

Texans’ star receiver DeAndre Hopkins is off to a slow start, averaging only 1.72 yards per route run, and his struggles could continue against Falcons’ CB Desmond Trufant. Kenny Stills is gaining an impressive 4.37 yards per route run in the slot but the former Dolphins wide receiver may be unavailable this week with a hamstring injury. Overall, Deshaun Watson should have more time in the pocket than he’s used to having versus Atlanta’s pedestrian pass rush but his receivers may not be as open as he’d like if Stills doesn’t play.

Our model favors the Texans by just 2.4 points, with a predicted total of 48.2 points, and the Falcons apply to a 155-97-5 ATS contrary indicator that plays on teams whose defense has averaged 1.0 or fewer takeaways per game. With defensive turnovers mostly random, a team being unlucky in defensive takeaways is probably better than they appear to be, which is why that angle has worked. Our model thinks Atlanta is better than they’ve been and I like the Falcons here.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Texans


  • Pass Plays 46.5 31.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.0% 52.9%
  • Sack Rate 4.7% 4.4%
  • Int Rate 3.6% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.4% 11.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.4% 40.1%
  • NYPP 6.9 7.4


  • Rush Plays 17.8 29.3
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 25.4% 27.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.9% 39.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 52.7% 37.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 3.6


  • All Snaps 64.3 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 51.2% 44.3%
  • Succ Rate 49.9% 45.2%
  • Big Yards Rate 39.3% 39.4%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.3%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.4 30.9
  • Run Ratio 28.2% 50.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 22.4 31.4
  • Game Control -8.3 8.3
  • Points 17.5 24.8
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