Atlanta Falcons @

Green Bay Packers

Mon, Oct 5
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 279
Odds: Green Bay Packers -6, Total: 57

Game Analysis

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GREEN BAY (-6) vs Atlanta

Calvin Ridley is making the most of Julio Jones’ nagging hamstring injury as the third-year WR is averaging 2.75 yards per route run (11th). However, Matt Ryan will be hoping Julio is back at full strength on Monday night as Ridley is likely to struggle against CB Jaire Alexander, who had a forced incompletion percentage of 20.4% last season, ranking 2nd among qualifiers. Last week, Alexander played 38 coverage snaps conceding just 2 targets, 1 reception, and -2 yards.

Linebacker Christian Kirksey has been a bad signing for Green Bay thus far, as he’s allowing 1.81 yards per cover snap (2nd-worst), but Kirksey will miss this game with a shoulder injury and backup Oren Burks might be an upgrade for Green Bay’s pass defense.

Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has done a good job providing different looks for opposing quarterbacks as the Packers are one of the only teams in the league to not run any of their coverage concepts on more than a fourth of their calls.

Aaron Rodgers has been in rhythm so far in 2020, getting the ball out early (2.59 second average time to throw) while also looking to exploit teams deep with nearly 10 air yards per attempt. Aaron Jones may be limited catching passes out of the backfield by Deoin Jones, who ranks 3rd among linebackers with 0.50 yards allowed to cover snap. However, Rodgers should have time to look downfield with interior defender Grady Jarrett (2.5 sacks) neutralized by guards Elgton Jenkins and Lucas Patrick, who have combined to concede only 4 pressures in three games. Inside receiver Allen Lazard already has 3 receptions on targets of 20 yards or more and the Falcons placed starting nickelback Darqueze Dennard (hamstring) on the Injured Reserve list.

Our model makes Green Bay a 6.0-point favorite, with a predicted total of 55.9 points. The model leaned a bit with Atlanta when they were 7 point underdogs, but the line has corrected. However, the Packers apply to a 44-10-1 ATS Monday night home team momentum situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Packers


  • Pass Plays 44.7 47.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 44.9% 53.7%
  • Sack Rate 3.7% 4.6%
  • Int Rate 1.5% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 24.0% 23.2%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.0% 42.8%
  • NYPP 6.8 7.5


  • Rush Plays 26.7 25.3
  • RB YPR 4.2 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 17.8% 17.3%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 58.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 39.5% 52.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 4.5


  • All Snaps 71.3 72.3
  • Early Down Succ 46.4% 60.2%
  • Succ Rate 45.6% 55.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.3% 45.4%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 6.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 1.2%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 24.8 25.9
  • Run Ratio 37.7% 34.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.8 29.5
  • Game Control 4.2 -4.2
  • Points 30.0 36.0
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