Game Analysis

Lean – Atlanta (+3) over DETROIT

Lean – Under 46

· These teams are trending in opposite directions from an injury standpoint. Lions’ safety CJ Gardner-Johnson is out indefinitely with a torn pectoral muscle. Gardner-Johnson has been Detroit’s 2nd-highest graded defender this season according to PFF. We had Gardner-Johnson as the Lions’ best player on defense heading into the year and he’s worth a half point.

· Lions head coach Dan Campbell stated, “Big V, you know, could be out for a bit”. Falcons’ interior defender Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata have combined for 12 pressures already and won’t slow down this week if starting guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai (Big V) is indeed sidelined.

· Jared Goff’s offensive line could also be missing starting LT Taylor Decker for the second straight game. Backup tackle Matt Nelson allowed one quarterback hit and one hurry on just 21 true pass-blocking sets last week.

· Detroit’s best WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 0.73 EPA/target (19th) but he was seen getting treatment on his right foot during the second half in Seattle and clearly won’t be at full strength on Sunday. St. Brown will be limited by Atlanta cornerback AJ Terell, who is conceding only 4.4 yards per target this year.

· The Falcons’ pass defense is allowing just a 41% success rate (9th) and now they will have starting CB Jeff Okudah make his debut. Backup CB Tre Flowers ranks 3rd-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· Atlanta’s offense flows through the running backs with a league-high 56% run play rate and averaging 0.05 EPA/rush (2nd), but Arthur Smith might have to look elsewhere in this game. The Lions have allowed just 33% of opponent rushes to be successful in 2023.

· Bijan Robinson ranks 6th among RBs averaging 0.20 EPA/target but Detroit’s best attribute on defense in 2022 was taking away RBs in the passing game, as the Lions conceded only 5.2 yards per target (11th). Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will make it a priority to take away Atlanta’s screens.

· The Falcons are one of three offenses targeting tight ends on more than 30% of passes. Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts should be focal points as the Lions have allowed a league-high 175 receiving yards to tight ends in 2023 after surrendering 8.2 yards per target to TEs last season (27th).

· Desmond Ridder could also look for WR Drake London, who is off to a slow start after averaging 2.07 yards per route run last year (12th). London will line up across from Detroit cornerback Jerry Jacobs, who ranks 14th-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· Our model favors the Lions by 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points.