Atlanta Falcons @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Nov 14
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 245
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -9, Total: 55

Game Analysis

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DALLAS (-9) vs Atlanta

The Cowboys were held scoreless until the 4th quarter last week in Dak Prescott’s return to action, but I expect the offense to get back on track in this game. Atlanta’s defense is lopsided with one great cornerback and one not so good one. CB AJ Terrell ranks 3rd in the NFL conceding a reception every 18.7 cover snaps and he will neutralize Amari Cooper but Falcons CB Fabian Moreau is mediocre on the other side and has no chance of covering CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 2.26 yards per route run (9th).

Dallas left tackle Tyron Smith conceded only 5 pressures in seven games before a bone spur issue in his ankle popped up. Backup LT Terence Steele surrendered 9 pressures last week and Smith’s status has not been determined yet for Sunday. Smith is worth 1.1 points according to our metrics.

Atlanta left tackle Jake Matthews ranks 8th in pass blocking efficiency and Dallas edge rusher Randy Gregory (14th in pressures) is out for this game. However, the Cowboys front should still be able to make it difficult for Matt Ryan as interior defender Osa Odighizuwa ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and will destroy LG Jalen Mayfield, who has surrendered 31 pressures.

Our model makes Dallas a 9.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 52.8 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Cowboys
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.75 36.25
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.1% 50.3%
  • Sack Rate 4.4% 3.8%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 1.1%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.5% 19.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 35.0% 30.7%
  • NYPP 6.48 6.55



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.75 28.25
  • RB YPR 3.40 3.79
  • Stuff Rate 25.3% 18.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 35.8% 56.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.4% 27.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.38 4.36




Game

  • All Snaps 63.50 64.50
  • Early Down Succ 44.3% 55.6%
  • Succ Rate 43.5% 52.9%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.3% 29.7%
  • Yards Per Play 5.32 5.59
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.8%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.66 28.47
  • Run Ratio 37.4% 43.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.32 -0.32
 
  • Points 21.88 27.50
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