Atlanta Falcons @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Sep 20
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, Total: 53.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Atlanta (+4.5) over DALLAS

Dak Prescott was under pressure on 19 dropbacks against the Rams last week, the second-most in the league. Most of the problems came from the inside with Aaron Donald winning 36% of his pass-rush reps — 10 percentage points higher than anyone else. This week the Dallas interior will have to deal with Grady Jarrett coming off a 2-sack performance in week 1, but no defensive tackle is as good as Donald and I expect 4-time All Pro RG Zack Martin to play better. However, not having La’el Collins at right tackle will remain an issue against Falcons edge rusher Takkarist McKinley, who had 6 pressures last week.

Despite getting some pressure on Prescott, the Falcons will still likely struggle against the Cowboys pass attach, as Atlanta has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. That unit surrendered nearly 8 yards per pass play last week and I’m expecting a bounce-back game for Dak. Prescott targeted Amari Cooper 14 times last week despite the wide receiver squaring off against elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey and Cooper should have a huge game on Sunday in an easier matchup.

Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage all had over 100 yards receiving in week 1 and the Falcons WRs are set up for another productive afternoon this week. Cornerbacks are the weakness of this Cowboys defense without star Byron Jones, who left in the offseason.

Atlanta’s ground game ranked 12th in week 1 and Todd Gurley should have a successful outing with LB Leighton Vander Esch out for Dallas (worth a half point) and backup LB Sean Lee also unavailable.

Our metrics favor the Cowboys by 2.5 points, with a predicted total of 51.8 points, and I’ll lean slightly with Atlanta plus the points despite the Cowboys being good in recent years against teams with a win percentage of .500 or less (25-10-2 ATS).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Falcons
  • Cowboys
ATL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 47.0 44.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.4% 57.9%
  • Sack Rate 3.1% 4.9%
  • Int Rate 0.9% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.0% 40.7%
  • NYPP 7.4 8.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.5 25.5
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 20.7% 14.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 59.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 28.7% 47.2%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 4.1




Game

  • All Snaps 74.5 69.5
  • Early Down Succ 47.1% 62.4%
  • Succ Rate 47.6% 58.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.9% 42.1%
  • Yards Per Play 5.9 6.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.7 25.4
  • Run Ratio 37.2% 36.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 32.8 27.8
  • Game Control 2.0 -2.0
 
  • Points 32.0 39.0
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