Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Atlanta (-3.5) vs CAROLINA

Lean – Carolina Team Total Under 20

Cam Newton hasn’t been 100% since injuring his shoulder in Tampa Bay. Last week Newton didn’t attempt a single pass more than 20 yards downfield and just four of his 29 total attempts eclipsed 10 air yards, of which only one was completed. It looks like we’ll see Newton sit down for the rest of the season with backup Taylor Heinicke taking the reins. Heinicke has just 5 career pass attempts and our metrics suggest he’ll be 6.5 points worse than Newton’s year-to-date performance. Not having dependable TE Greg Olsen in the lineup will make things tougher for the undrafted quarterback out of Old Dominion. Furthermore, Christian McCaffrey is unlikely to provide relief for Heinicke versus a Falcons defense with Deion Jones back in uniform after missing most of the season with a foot injury. Jones is averaging 4 run stops per game, which would top the league if he qualified (the current leader is Luke Keuchely with 2.6 per game). McCaffrey is leading all running backs with 108 targets out of the backfield, but Jones is also Atlanta’s best cover linebacker and finished 7th in yards allowed per cover snap last year. The Falcons are conceding just 4.4 yards per play with Jones in the starting lineup compared to 6.7 yards per play in the games he missed.

Even after running for 215 yards last week, Atlanta’s ground game still ranks 26th as they’ve played the majority of the season without both starting guards. Carolina’s rush defense ranks 6th and I expect the Falcons to turn back to the passing attack on Sunday. Julio Jones is gaining an NFL-best 2.93 yards per route run and should have his way on the outside versus Donte Jackson and James Bradberry, one of the worst cornerback duos in the league.

Our model makes the Falcons a 3.3-point favorite with a predicted total of 42.6 points. This game applies to a 711-513-16 Under situation but rather than the game under I think the best play is the Carolina Team Total Under 20 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Falcons
Panthers

ATL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.8 36.9
Succ Pass Plays 53.2% 53.4%
Sack Rate 6.9% 6.3%
Int Rate 1.1% 2.5%
Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 19.0%
Big Pass Yards 35.5% 32.0%
NYPP 7.1 7.1

Rush

Rush Plays 21.6 27.1
RB YPR 3.9 4.5
Stuff Rate 28.8% 19.5%
Succ Rush Plays 45.5% 52.1%
Big Rush Yards 46.6% 47.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.8

Game

All Snaps 62.4 64.0
Early Down Succ 51.0% 53.4%
Succ Rate 50.4% 52.0%
Big Yards Rate 39.6% 37.6%
Yards Per Play 6.0 6.0
Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.7 28.9
Run Ratio 34.9% 42.7%
Starting Field Pos 26.2 27.2
Game Control -0.1 0.1

Points 25.4 27.2

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@PHI	12 – 18 L	0.9	31.9% / 32.4%	8.5% / 5.4%	2.3% / 2.9%	4.8 / 3.2	44.4% / 53.6%	27.8% / 21.4%	4.1 / 4.1	65 / 65	38.8% / 40.4%	35.4% / 41.5%	49.5% / 20.6%	4.6 / 3.6	0.0% / 1.5%	27.7% / 43.1%	35.2 / 22.2
2	CAR	31 – 24 W	5.0	67.9% / 53.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	3.6% / 2.2%	9.7 / 6.8	50.0% / 66.7%	31.3% / 11.1%	5.3 / 6.7	60 / 65	59.2% / 58.5%	58.3% / 56.9%	55.9% / 44.4%	7.4 / 6.8	0.0% / 0.0%	53.3% / 27.7%	26.2 / 19.5
3	NO	37 – 43 L	-0.3	63.2% / 56.0%	7.9% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.4 / 7.8	21.7% / 53.6%	43.5% / 14.3%	2.1 / 5.1	61 / 78	52.1% / 57.4%	47.5% / 55.1%	36.3% / 37.9%	6.7 / 6.9	0.0% / 0.0%	37.7% / 35.9%	24.1 / 29.8
4	CIN	36 – 37 L	-0.5	61.9% / 52.3%	7.1% / 6.8%	0.0% / 2.4%	9.6 / 7.0	45.8% / 56.5%	12.5% / 8.7%	3.8 / 4.3	66 / 67	52.0% / 50.9%	56.1% / 53.7%	37.2% / 33.4%	7.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 34.3%	32.4 / 33.0
5	@PIT	17 – 41 L	-8.9	56.8% / 84.2%	16.2% / 0.0%	0.0% / 5.3%	7.1 / 13.2	36.8% / 50.0%	31.6% / 15.6%	3.3 / 4.1	56 / 51	39.6% / 51.1%	50.0% / 62.7%	36.1% / 39.3%	5.8 / 7.5	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 62.7%	20.3 / 36.1
6	TB	34 – 29 W	6.3	57.1% / 61.9%	2.4% / 4.8%	0.0% / 5.0%	8.2 / 9.3	40.9% / 55.0%	36.4% / 25.0%	3.2 / 6.2	64 / 62	49.0% / 59.3%	51.6% / 59.7%	40.9% / 32.8%	6.5 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	34.4% / 32.3%	21.9 / 28.6
7	NYG	23 – 20 W	4.5	57.1% / 50.0%	7.1% / 9.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.5 / 8.9	33.3% / 35.0%	33.3% / 40.0%	3.2 / 3.1	63 / 62	50.0% / 46.9%	49.2% / 45.2%	42.2% / 60.3%	6.7 / 7.0	1.6% / 0.0%	33.3% / 32.3%	19.7 / 22.4
9	@WAS	38 – 14 W	12.7	45.0% / 44.9%	5.0% / 6.1%	2.6% / 2.2%	8.4 / 5.9	62.5% / 53.3%	0.0% / 33.3%	6.4 / 5.3	64 / 64	45.1% / 46.9%	51.6% / 46.9%	54.4% / 36.6%	7.7 / 5.7	0.0% / 0.0%	37.5% / 23.4%	22.7 / 23.8
10	@CLE	16 – 28 L	-8.8	54.7% / 71.4%	3.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.8%	5.9 / 10.3	47.4% / 45.2%	36.8% / 19.4%	3.7 / 6.9	72 / 52	57.4% / 62.5%	52.8% / 55.8%	36.1% / 45.7%	5.3 / 8.3	2.8% / 0.0%	26.4% / 59.6%	27.3 / 23.6
11	DAL	19 – 22 L	-1.1	56.8% / 50.0%	8.1% / 5.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	7.4 / 5.6	61.1% / 62.1%	27.8% / 13.8%	4.4 / 4.6	55 / 63	60.5% / 58.0%	58.2% / 55.6%	39.0% / 28.8%	6.4 / 5.1	0.0% / 0.0%	32.7% / 46.0%	29.1 / 26.8
12	@NO	17 – 31 L	-11.9	49.1% / 62.5%	11.3% / 8.3%	2.1% / 4.5%	6.4 / 6.8	37.5% / 51.4%	43.8% / 8.6%	1.6 / 4.4	69 / 59	45.8% / 68.3%	46.4% / 55.9%	42.3% / 32.9%	5.3 / 5.4	4.3% / 0.0%	23.2% / 59.3%	29.6 / 33.5
13	BAL	16 – 26 L	-2.5	36.7% / 50.0%	10.0% / 7.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.2 / 5.7	37.5% / 61.5%	31.3% / 11.5%	2.2 / 4.0	46 / 80	44.1% / 63.8%	37.0% / 57.5%	8.3% / 29.3%	2.9 / 4.6	2.2% / 1.3%	34.8% / 65.0%	25.6 / 25.9
14	@GB	20 – 34 L	-12.3	56.8% / 44.4%	4.5% / 11.1%	2.4% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.5	66.7% / 46.2%	20.8% / 15.4%	4.5 / 5.3	68 / 62	66.0% / 44.7%	60.3% / 45.2%	20.3% / 48.8%	5.1 / 4.9	1.5% / 0.0%	35.3% / 41.9%	27.8 / 25.9
15	ARI	40 – 14 W	15.8	50.0% / 34.9%	5.3% / 16.3%	0.0% / 5.6%	5.8 / 4.5	51.9% / 39.1%	25.9% / 34.8%	8.0 / 2.7	65 / 66	53.8% / 38.8%	50.8% / 36.4%	55.9% / 35.0%	6.7 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	41.5% / 34.8%	25.0 / 29.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	DAL	16 – 8 W	6.7	50.0% / 37.1%	10.7% / 17.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.2 / 3.9	44.7% / 26.1%	21.1% / 17.4%	3.9 / 4.1	66 / 58	58.7% / 38.6%	47.0% / 32.8%	28.7% / 22.7%	4.5 / 4.0	1.5% / 1.7%	57.6% / 39.7%	38.1 / 21.4
2	@ATL	24 – 31 L	-5.0	53.2% / 67.9%	4.3% / 0.0%	2.2% / 3.6%	6.8 / 9.7	66.7% / 50.0%	11.1% / 31.3%	6.7 / 5.3	65 / 60	58.5% / 59.2%	56.9% / 58.3%	44.4% / 55.9%	6.8 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	27.7% / 53.3%	19.5 / 26.2
3	CIN	31 – 21 W	4.5	40.0% / 53.2%	4.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 8.9%	5.9 / 7.0	47.6% / 53.8%	21.4% / 23.1%	5.5 / 5.1	67 / 60	46.2% / 56.0%	44.8% / 53.3%	54.8% / 58.1%	5.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	62.7% / 21.7%	30.5 / 23.5
5	NYG	33 – 31 W	5.4	76.2% / 75.0%	4.8% / 4.2%	10.0% / 8.7%	11.0 / 15.9	40.6% / 25.0%	28.1% / 43.8%	3.7 / 3.1	53 / 40	47.1% / 46.7%	54.7% / 55.0%	52.7% / 59.3%	6.6 / 10.8	0.0% / 2.5%	60.4% / 40.0%	28.5 / 30.5
6	@WAS	17 – 23 L	-9.4	53.7% / 35.9%	2.4% / 7.7%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.6 / 4.0	47.4% / 51.7%	26.3% / 10.3%	4.3 / 4.6	60 / 68	58.3% / 43.8%	51.7% / 42.6%	25.9% / 36.3%	5.9 / 4.3	3.3% / 0.0%	31.7% / 42.6%	20.3 / 33.7
7	@PHI	21 – 17 W	-6.8	51.2% / 51.2%	4.9% / 9.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 6.9	61.1% / 54.2%	16.7% / 25.0%	6.8 / 2.4	59 / 65	57.8% / 57.1%	54.2% / 52.3%	50.0% / 37.7%	6.3 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.5%	30.5% / 36.9%	26.3 / 19.8
8	BAL	36 – 21 W	10.2	60.0% / 45.7%	0.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 4.5%	7.7 / 4.9	31.4% / 77.8%	20.0% / 16.7%	4.5 / 5.6	65 / 64	47.9% / 56.0%	44.6% / 54.7%	26.3% / 26.2%	6.0 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.6%	53.8% / 28.1%	37.5 / 23.0
9	TB	42 – 28 W	14.2	55.6% / 47.7%	7.4% / 6.8%	0.0% / 4.9%	8.4 / 5.0	48.6% / 23.8%	11.4% / 23.8%	5.2 / 3.9	62 / 65	62.2% / 39.2%	51.6% / 40.0%	56.0% / 49.5%	6.6 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	56.5% / 32.3%	34.8 / 24.6
10	@PIT	21 – 52 L	-20.4	50.0% / 67.9%	14.7% / 3.6%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.3 / 11.4	50.0% / 41.9%	18.2% / 22.6%	4.3 / 4.5	56 / 59	52.3% / 52.2%	50.0% / 54.2%	37.6% / 52.8%	4.3 / 7.8	1.8% / 0.0%	39.3% / 52.5%	24.9 / 30.1
11	@DET	19 – 20 L	-1.3	53.7% / 39.5%	7.3% / 2.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	8.1 / 5.7	56.3% / 34.5%	18.8% / 31.0%	3.5 / 3.3	57 / 67	56.5% / 42.0%	54.4% / 37.3%	51.4% / 37.9%	6.8 / 4.6	0.0% / 0.0%	28.1% / 43.3%	16.4 / 31.9
12	SEA	27 – 30 L	1.6	66.7% / 59.4%	0.0% / 6.3%	3.3% / 0.0%	8.5 / 10.1	59.3% / 25.8%	25.9% / 25.8%	8.1 / 2.5	57 / 63	68.1% / 44.2%	63.2% / 42.9%	57.6% / 60.2%	8.4 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	47.4% / 49.2%	29.3 / 22.4
13	@TB	17 – 24 L	-6.2	47.8% / 50.0%	8.7% / 11.8%	9.5% / 0.0%	6.0 / 6.5	55.0% / 36.0%	15.0% / 40.0%	8.5 / 3.8	66 / 59	54.5% / 43.5%	50.0% / 44.1%	54.2% / 41.6%	6.7 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.7%	30.3% / 42.4%	21.3 / 35.2
14	@CLE	20 – 26 L	0.4	40.9% / 37.5%	2.3% / 4.2%	2.3% / 0.0%	6.8 / 9.7	56.0% / 34.8%	24.0% / 30.4%	3.8 / 5.1	69 / 47	48.1% / 38.2%	46.4% / 36.2%	45.3% / 68.0%	5.7 / 7.4	0.0% / 4.3%	36.2% / 48.9%	37.3 / 25.2

Atlanta Falcons @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Dec 23

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis