Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Under (36.5) – BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs Atlanta

· The Ravens are allowing -0.124 EPA/play since trading for LB Roquan Smith after filtering out garbage time (3rd).

· Edge rusher Tyus Bowser also made his debut for Baltimore’s defense in week 9 and they have 19 sacks in the last six games with a healthy edge rushing rotation.

· The Falcons led by Desmond Ridder averaged only 3.0 yppp in the rookie’s first start last week and he looks significantly worse than Marcus Mariota at this point in his development.

· Atlanta’s offense is the most run-heavy in the NFL as the Falcons go to the ground game on 51% of offensive snaps.

· Atlanta RB Caleb Huntley had surgery to repair his torn right Achilles on Tuesday so we will see plenty of Tyler Allgeier on Saturday. Allgeier had a 77% success rate last week which was the highest of any running back in the league this season, but it will look way different for the rookie in this game.

· The Ravens are allowing only -0.269 EPA/rush since acquiring Roquan Smith.

· Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey ranks 13th in coverage grade by PFF and he will shut down Ridder’s only receiving threat WR Drake London, who is averaging 1.78 yards per route run (23rd).

· Passing will be strenuous for both offenses this week with sustained winds around 20 mph and a “feels like” temperature of 0 degrees Fahrenheit.

· Baltimore’s offense has just a 47% pass play rate over the last three weeks (28th) with Tyler Huntley at quarterback and it looks like Lamar Jackson is out at least another week.

· The Falcons have the 7th-rated rush defense by our numbers.

· Three of Baltimore’s four wide receivers drafted since 2020 are now on injured reserve: Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 5.4 points with a predicted total of 32.6 points.

The Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 36 points or more (Strong Opinion Under 35.5 points).