Game Analysis

Lean – WASHINGTON (-7) over Arizona

· Wow! Arizona. Where to even start here? The Cardinals only have two players on the roster clearly above replacement level in safety Budda Baker and wide receiver Hollywood Brown. You could make a case for the other safety Jalen Thompson and left tackle DJ Humphries, but it gets really bleak after those four guys.

· Arizona’s interior defensive line lost 90 pressures after JJ Watt retired and Zach Allen followed former DC Vance Joseph to Denver.

· The retirement of Rodney Hudson means the Cardinals are going with Hjalte Froholdt at center, who surrendered 7 sacks in only 6 starts for the Browns last year.

· All of this before mentioning we don’t know who’s going to start under center for Arizona. New head coach Jonathan Gannon does not want to tip his hand between Josh Dobbs and fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune. I think it’ll be Dobbs, but he’s averaged only 4.7 yppp for his career and just got traded to the team two weeks ago.

· New Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will bring over an entirely new rushing scheme from Cleveland. Arizona’s offense only ran between the tackles on 65% of rushes the last four seasons and the Browns had an inside run rate of 73% in 2022.

· Arizona is the favorite for the first and second picks in next year’s draft after Texans traded with them to move up for Will Anderson.

· The Commanders gave rookie Sam Howell 22 dropbacks last season in week 18 and it gave them enough confidence to go with the former fifth-round pick as QB1 for the 2023 season.

· Eric Bienemy comes over to Washington after being the offensive coordinator in Kansas City for the past five seasons. I think many expect him to want to throw the ball, but Bieniemy is a former running back and RB coach. I think Andy Reid was the one wanting to pass and Bieniemy could try to pound the rock as a touchdown-favorite here with his weakness at QB and a defensive head coach in his ear.

· The only returners on Washington’s offensive line from a season ago are LT Charles Leno and Sam Cosmi, who is bumping inside from right tackle to guard. Leno ranked 37th in pass-blocking efficiency, but he might be the only one across this line above replacement level.

· It’s been remarkable to see Commanders’ WR Terry McLaurin average nearly 2 yards per route run during his first four years in the NFL given the low level of QBs throwing him the ball. It is reminiscent of DeAndre Hopkins during those years in Houston before they drafted Deshaun Watson. McLaurin was banged up in the preseason but looks like he’ll be in uniform for week 1.

· Washington used four first-round picks from 2017-2020 on the defensive line and now all of them are in their prime. Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne both finished in the top 10 in pressures among interior defenders a season ago. Montez Sweat finished 13th in pass rushing efficiency. Chase Young starts this season unavailable due to injury.

· Washington’s secondary is league average led by CB Kendall Fuller, who ranked 16th in PFF coverage grade last year. At safety, they have Kamren Curl and Darrick Forrest, who are both in the top 25 at that position by our metrics.

· Our model favors Washington by 7.4 points, with a predicted total of 39.2 points, and the matchups favor the Commanders. Lean with Washington at -7 or less.