Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Arizona Team Total Under (23.5)

Lean – SEATTLE (pk) over Arizona

Lean – Under (47)

• The Seahawks defense is top-5 in man-coverage rate the last 5 weeks as head coach Mike Macdonald finds his identity with his new team and Seattle will limit the Cardinals’ passing attack on Sunday. Kyler Murray has a yards per attempt against man a league-low 61% of his yards per attempt versus zone coverage.
• Arizona WR Marvin Harrison is averaging 1.90 yards per route run (20th) but he will be shut down by CB Tariq Woolen, who is conceding just 0.55 yards per cover snap (2nd)
• Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 11 targets for 110 yards last week in the win versus the 49ers. Smith-Njigba has a league-high 572 yards from the slot but he will be contained on Sunday across from nickelback Garrett Williams, who is conceding 0.85 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th).
• Instead, Geno Smith will look deep as Arizona’s defense will likely be without starting safety Jalen Thompson. Seattle wide receiver DK Metcalf has 10 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (2nd).
• Smith should have time in the pocket as getting back RT Abraham Lucas is a massive upgrade over backup Stone Forsythe, who ranked last in pass-blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying tackles.
• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker is averaging 1.25 yards per route run (8th) and he has a favorable matchup in the screen game as the Cardinals are surrendering a 56% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (31st).
• Our model makes Seattle a 3.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.1 points, and this game applies to a very good division under situation.

Strong Opinion on the Arizona Team Total Under (23.5) at 23 or more. The alternate is a Strong Opinion on the game Under 47 or more.