Game Analysis

SEATTLE (-7.5) vs Arizona

Lean – Under (44.5)

· The Seahawks moved rookie CB Devon Witherspoon to nickelback and it has transformed the defense. Witherspoon is physical enough in the run game on the inside to act as another linebacker while being sound in coverage. Seattle’s defense is conceding a 25% rush success rate in the last two games with Witherspoon in the slot compared to a 34% rush success rate allowed in the first 3 weeks. Witherspoon allowed just 14 yards on 5 targets into his coverage last week in Cincinnati.

· Seahawks CB Tariq Woolen is conceding 0.95 yards per cover snap (18th) and he will contain WR Marquise Brown, whose 13 targets with at least 20 air yards rank 4th.

· However, Joshua Dobbs can find ways to avoid Witherspoon and Woolen effectively. The Cardinals are targeting tight ends on 30.2% of passes (2nd-most) and Seattle’s defense is surrendering 0.39 EPA/target to tight ends (28th).

· Arizona TE Trey McBride is slowly taking over for Zach Ertz. McBride ran 22 routes last week after not getting more than 13 in his first 5 games. McBride has 141 yards on 71 routes (3rd-highest).

· Dobbs is averaging 28% more yards per attempt versus zone coverage than man this year (7th-largest gap) and he has a favorable matchup as Seattle’s defense uses an 83.6% zone coverage rate (6th-highest).

· The Seahawks edge defenders had 3 sacks against the Giants mess of an offensive line, but they have only a 14% pressure rate in the other 4 games.

· However, Seattle’s group of interior defenders is stout averaging 9.2 pressures per game, and they have a favorable matchup. Cardinals LG Elijah Wilkinson ranks 3rd-worst in pass-blocking efficiency out of 53 qualifying guards. Wilkinson is on the verge of getting bench for Dennis Daley, who was activated from injured reserve last week.

· Arizona’s defense might have safety Budda Baker back in uniform on Sunday to fix their explosive pass rate allowed rank of 31st. However, it looks like nickelback Jalen Thompson will be out again and he is allowing 0.89 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th).

· Cardinals CB Marco Wilson is one of 2 qualifying cornerbacks allowing more than 2 yards per cover snap into his coverage and he will struggle versus wide receiver DK Metcalf, whose 67% success rate ranks 2nd.

· Seahawks left tackle Charles Cross was back on the field last week to stabilize Geno Smith’s protection. Cross is allowing just a 5.8% pressure rate while backup tackle Stone Forsythe was surrendering an 11.0% pressure rate.

· Seattle’s ground game is averaging 0.04 EPA/rush (2nd) and they should be able to kill the game once they get a lead as Arizona’s defense is surrendering a 48.8% rush success rate (31st).

· Our model favors the Seahawks by 10.8 points, with a predicted total of 40.9 points, but Arizona applies to a 131-54-4 ATS situation. I still used Seattle in my pool, as the line value and favorable matchups are more significant than the situation favor the Cardinals.