Arizona Cardinals @

Seattle Seahawks

Thu, Nov 19
5:20 PM Pacific
Rotation: 321
Odds: Seattle Seahawks -3, Total: 57.5

Game Analysis

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SEATTLE (-3) vs Arizona

Russell Wilson has multiple interceptions in three of his last four games with all three ending in Seahawks losses, but I expect Wilson to take care of the football better the rest of the way. Wilson’s interception rate (3.0%) is now three times higher than last season (1.0%) and his career interception rate is 1.9%. DK Metcalf had just 28 receiving yards last week when lined up across from All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey and he will have another difficult matchup this week versus Patrick Peterson. Metcalf gained just 23 receiving yards with Peterson in shadow coverage in week 7. Meanwhile, we saw Tyler Lockett catch two touchdowns with Dre Kirkpatrick in coverage the last time these teams met and Bills’ slot receiver Cole Beasley averaged 2.79 yards per slot route run against Arizona’s defense last week. Lockett should be featured on the inside if he is able to play through a knee sprain.. Wilson will be looking to get the ball out fast as the Cardinals blitz on 42% of opponents’ dropbacks (3rd) and we saw Vance Joseph’s defense have success blitzing Wilson in week 11. Wilson is averaging just 5.8 yppp against the blitz this year, compared to 7.9 yppp versus a standard rush.

Seahawks top CB Shaquill Griffin injured his hamstring in Arizona four weeks ago and Seattle’s pass defense has been dreadful without him. It didn’t show as much in the game against the 49ers considering the issues they had at QB with the Jimmy Garoppolo injury, but the Seahawks have surrendered 7.9 yards per pass play the last two weeks. It looks like Griffin and fellow CB Quinton Dunbar are out again this week so Kyler Murray should be able to pick apart Seattle’s secondary.

Our model still favors the Seahawks by 4.0 points, with a predicted total of 56.8 points, but the matchups strongly favor Arizona in this game. However, Seattle is 20-10-1 ATS at home after a loss under coach Pete Carroll and 12-2-1 ATS after consecutive losses (7-0-1 ATS at home). Carroll is also 8-3 straight up and 8-3 ATS is same-season division revenge, including 4-0 ATS after a loss, and the Seahawks will be eager to atone for their 34-37 OT loss in Arizona a month ago. I’ll pass on this one.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.0 41.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.5% 48.6%
  • Sack Rate 4.1% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 1.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 16.9% 16.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.7% 34.4%
  • NYPP 7.2 6.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.0 26.4
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.0
  • Stuff Rate 15.6% 23.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.5% 50.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 56.2% 43.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.2 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 68.0 67.7
  • Early Down Succ 54.5% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 52.1% 49.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 46.5% 36.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.3 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.0 28.2
  • Run Ratio 47.3% 39.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.1 28.6
  • Game Control 1.6 -1.6
 
  • Points 29.6 23.3
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