Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (50) – SAN FRANCISCO (-7) vs Arizona

• San Francisco All-Pro LB Fred Warner’s status was up in the air to start the week but he expressed optimism about playing against the Cardinals on Wednesday and returned to practice on Friday. Warner has made a tackle on 23% of his run defense snaps and 71% of his tackles produce a successful play for his defense (2nd). Warner will contain a Cardinals ground game rated 10th by our numbers.
• Warner will also be crucial in limiting Arizona TE Trey McBride, who has a 57% success rate (8th). San Francisco’s defense is allowing just -0.02 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (8th).
• Cardinals RT Kelvin Beachum has surrendered 3 sacks (6th-most) and he will struggle across from edge defender Nick Bosa, who had 7 pressures last week (2nd) and a 0.51-second pass rush get-off which was the fastest by any defender in a game since 2018.
• Kyler Murray does his worst when the opposing defense can keep him in the pocket with a standard pass rush. Arizona’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush is only 78% of their yards per attempt against the blitz (27th). The 49ers have an 81.6% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
• San Francisco’s offense isn’t getting the same amount of yards after the catch this year with just 27% of Brock Purdy’s yards coming after the catch compared to 48% last season.
• Opposing defenses are using two-high shells versus the 49ers on 53% of snaps compared to 35% and 36% the past two seasons because they don’t fear Christian McCaffrey with the All-Pro running back sidelined.
• Purdy has been slinging it downfield into those two-high shells, but he has an 18% contested target rate (3rd-highest) and San Francisco’s offense will sputter when those start drying up.
• The Cardinals defense can take away the slot from WR Deebo Samuel and WR Jauan Jennings, who is averaging 0.89 EPA/target (2nd). Arizona nickelback Garrett Williams is allowing a league-low 0.59 yards per cover snap in the slot.
• Arizona lost 14-42 last week but teams that lose by 14 points or more and allow 40 points or more are 157-119-10 ATS as underdogs the next week and the Cardinals apply to a 76-25-2 ATS subset of that angle.
• Our model favors the 49ers by 12.6 points, with a predicted total of 43.5 points, but the situation favors the Cardinals.

The Under is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49 points or more and 1-Star down to 48 points.