Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-14) vs Arizona

· San Francisco’s pass defense has been stout so far under Steve Wilks, ranking 5th in EPA/dropback, but the rush defense is surrendering a 45% success rate (26th).

· Arizona offensive coordinator Drew Petzing has brought the great ground game over from Cleveland, as the Cardinals rank 9th in EPA/rush.

· Arizona is one of three offenses with tight ends collecting more than 30% of the target share but the 49ers defense is conceding only 2.7 yards per target to TEs (2nd).

· Cardinals’ rookie RT Paris Johnson has been solid but he will likely have his welcome to the NFL moment on Sunday across from edge rusher Nick Bosa, who has 15 pressures (7th).

· San Francisco interior defender Javon Kinlaw has 10 pressures (12th) and he will wreak havoc versus LG Elijah Wilkinson, who ranks 8th-worst in pass-blocking efficiency.

· Joshua Dobbs got rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds on half of his dropbacks in the first two games and 68% of his dropbacks against the Cowboys’ elite pass rush. The quick passing resulted in 6 targets to Arizona WR Rondale Moore last week and he should be featured again on Sunday against the 49ers elite pass rush.

· San Francisco’s offense will likely have WR Brandon Aijuk back in uniform after he missed the last game. Aijuk is averaging 1.40 EPA/target with half his targets coming in the slot. However, Cardinals nickelback Jalen Thompson is allowing only 0.49 yards per slot cover snap (4th).

· Arizona interior defender Jonathan Ledbetter 8 pressures (22nd) and he will be a problem for 49ers RG Spencer Burford, who ranks 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

· Brock Purdy will look to get the ball out fast on slant routes to Deebo Samuel lined up across from Cardinals CB Kei’Trel Clark, who ranks 11th-worst in PFF coverage grade.

· Arizona is one of two defenses allowing more than half of opponent rushes to be successful and they are unlikely to improve in this matchup as San Francisco’s offense ranks 6th in EPA/rush.

· Our model favors the 49ers by just 12.2 points, with a predicted total of 42.9 points, but Arizona applies to a 10-30-2 ATS letdown situation that applies to teams coming off an upset win as an underdog of 11 points or more..