Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-14) vs Arizona

Lean – Under (40.5)

· Brock Purdy is undefeated as a starter and Kyle Shanhan’s scheme typically crushes Vance Joseph’s aggressive defense. San Francisco’s offense scored 38 points against Arizona in Mexico City. However, Purdy could struggle in this game due to his troubles diagnosing the blitz.

· The Cardinals are terrible at defending opposing running backs and tight ends which plays into Shanahan’s hands. Christian McCaffrey leads all RBs gaining 1.82 yards per route run and Arizona’s defense is surrendering 6.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (29th).

· The 49ers are averaging 0.46 EPA/target to George Kittle, the second highest of any tight end. The Cardinals are allowing 8.6 yards per target to TEs (29th).

· However, Arizona’s aggression on defense might be different with Purdy than it usually is with Jimmy Garoppolo. Purdy is the lowest among all qualifying quarterbacks with his first down rate against the blitz, converting at 12 percentage points lower than against a standard pass rush. The Cardinals have a 35% blitz rate ranking 2nd in the NFL.

· San Francisco’s ground game has a 44% success rate this year (7th) and they might take the ball out of the rookie quarterback’s hands as Arizona has the 29th-rated rush defense by our metrics.

· The 49ers are conceding only a 35% rush success rate (2nd) meaning the Cardinals offense will be on David Blough’s shoulders.

· Blough clearly felt most comfortable with passes to the short-intermediate middle part of the field last week as TE Trey McBride and slot receiver Greg Dortch combined for 20 targets.

· San Francisco’s defense typically does a good job taking away the middle of the field with Pro Bowl LB Fred Warner, who ranks 11th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Warner could be more stressed than usual on Sunday without his running mate, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who ranks 4th in coverage grade by PFF. Greenlaw is worth a half point by our numbers.

· Nick Bosa has at least one sack in eight of his past 10 games, but he will go against RT Kelvin Beachum, who is the only remaining starter on Arizona’s offensive line from the beginning of the season.

· Our model favors the 49ers by 11.1 points with a predicted total of 37.9 points.