Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Arizona (-2.5) vs NEW ENGLAND

Kyler Murray was contained as a rusher last week in Seattle, with just 5 attempts for 15 yards and zero touchdowns. Not allowing Murray to use his legs is the key to stopping Arizona’s offense, as we saw even a bad defense like the Seahawks hold the Cardinals to 5.0 yards per play, and I expect Bill Belichick to force Murray to be a passer on Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 2.38 yards per route run (4th) but there is a chance he sees shadow coverage from last season’s defensive player of the year CB Stephon Gilmore.

After another strong showing last week, Cam Newton is averaging 6.9 yards per pass play this year, which ranks one spot below Drew Brees and only two below Kyler Murray. However, Newton has crazy splits and is averaging just 4.8 yppp against the blitz compared to 8.6 yppp versus a standard rush. Arizona’s defense blitzes on 40% of opponents’ dropbacks (4th), which will likely give Newton trouble on Sunday. LT Isaiah Wynn went down on the Patriots’ final offensive series last week after getting rolled up from behind and he walked off the field slowly. Edge defender Markus Golden ranks 12th in pass rushing efficiency and he will cause problems if Wynn is unable to go on Sunday. New England’s offense runs the ball on more than half of their snaps and they will need to continue utilizing the ground game heavily against an Arizona rush defense ranked 30th.

Our model favors the Cardinals by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 49.3 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cardinals
Patriots

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.9 40.2
Succ Pass Plays 49.7% 49.2%
Sack Rate 4.4% 6.7%
Int Rate 2.2% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 16.5% 15.5%
Big Pass Yards 38.5% 33.5%
NYPP 7.0 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 30.6 26.9
RB YPR 4.0 4.2
Stuff Rate 16.2% 22.6%
Succ Rush Plays 54.6% 51.9%
Big Rush Yards 54.6% 43.9%
Yards Per Rush 5.0 4.6

Game

All Snaps 67.5 67.1
Early Down Succ 54.3% 53.0%
Succ Rate 52.2% 50.2%
Big Yards Rate 44.1% 36.7%
Yards Per Play 6.1 5.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 28.8
Run Ratio 45.4% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 26.1 28.2
Game Control 1.0 -1.0

Points 28.7 23.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	24 – 20 W	-2.5	35.7% / 41.7%	4.8% / 8.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.8	50.0% / 48.0%	16.7% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.9	78 / 61	41.0% / 52.1%	42.3% / 44.3%	36.4% / 42.9%	5.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 41.0%	24.8 / 32.0
2	WAS	30 – 15 W	15.0	46.3% / 37.8%	7.3% / 10.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.4	50.0% / 60.9%	15.6% / 17.4%	5.0 / 5.1	73 / 60	48.1% / 48.9%	47.9% / 46.7%	50.7% / 44.3%	6.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 3.3%	43.8% / 38.3%	24.6 / 27.5
3	DET	23 – 26 L	-0.2	55.6% / 51.4%	2.8% / 11.4%	8.6% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.6	55.6% / 29.6%	14.8% / 33.3%	4.0 / 3.3	63 / 62	57.7% / 42.9%	55.6% / 41.9%	34.5% / 35.4%	6.0 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 43.5%	19.4 / 36.4
4	@CAR	21 – 31 L	-12.2	46.9% / 51.4%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 2.7%	4.2 / 7.5	56.5% / 37.1%	21.7% / 17.1%	5.6 / 4.8	55 / 72	54.3% / 42.1%	50.9% / 44.4%	27.9% / 48.4%	4.8 / 6.2	1.8% / 0.0%	41.8% / 48.6%	28.7 / 26.8
5	@NYJ	30 – 10 W	10.3	60.5% / 44.4%	2.6% / 8.3%	2.7% / 0.0%	9.7 / 4.5	43.3% / 57.1%	13.3% / 28.6%	4.2 / 4.4	68 / 64	57.7% / 57.1%	52.9% / 50.0%	55.8% / 31.2%	7.3 / 4.5	0.0% / 0.0%	44.1% / 43.8%	22.3 / 26.7
6	@DAL	38 – 10 W	16.2	32.0% / 43.9%	4.0% / 5.3%	0.0% / 3.7%	7.1 / 4.3	71.4% / 48.1%	8.6% / 22.2%	7.5 / 3.6	60 / 84	55.6% / 43.9%	55.0% / 45.2%	71.5% / 25.0%	7.3 / 4.1	0.0% / 2.4%	58.3% / 32.1%	33.3 / 23.8
7	SEA	37 – 34 W	-7.2	54.2% / 57.7%	0.0% / 3.8%	2.1% / 6.0%	7.5 / 7.2	54.5% / 76.7%	24.2% / 13.3%	4.8 / 6.7	81 / 82	60.3% / 70.1%	54.3% / 64.6%	44.5% / 39.2%	6.4 / 7.0	1.2% / 0.0%	40.7% / 36.6%	29.6 / 28.0
9	MIA	31 – 34 L	-1.5	63.0% / 54.8%	3.7% / 9.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.8 / 7.1	45.9% / 56.0%	10.8% / 16.0%	4.8 / 3.6	64 / 56	55.1% / 60.0%	53.1% / 55.4%	43.4% / 22.8%	6.9 / 5.6	1.6% / 0.0%	57.8% / 44.6%	22.7 / 26.3
10	BUF	32 – 30 W	-3.2	51.4% / 54.0%	8.6% / 0.0%	3.1% / 4.0%	6.7 / 5.9	62.9% / 44.4%	14.3% / 38.9%	6.2 / 4.1	70 / 68	60.7% / 52.7%	57.1% / 51.5%	53.9% / 40.4%	6.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 0.0%	50.0% / 26.5%	29.3 / 29.9
11	@SEA	21 – 28 L	-4.6	51.1% / 54.8%	6.7% / 9.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.9	55.6% / 61.3%	22.2% / 19.4%	3.2 / 5.3	63 / 62	52.9% / 59.6%	52.4% / 58.1%	22.6% / 37.2%	5.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 50.0%	26.3 / 24.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	MIA	21 – 11 W	5.7	61.9% / 51.6%	9.5% / 3.2%	0.0% / 10.0%	6.7 / 5.9	66.7% / 51.9%	11.9% / 18.5%	5.2 / 3.2	63 / 58	68.6% / 55.6%	65.1% / 51.7%	33.1% / 23.4%	5.7 / 4.6	1.6% / 0.0%	66.7% / 46.6%	29.4 / 20.8
2	@SEA	30 – 35 L	-0.4	57.8% / 70.0%	2.2% / 6.7%	2.3% / 3.6%	8.8 / 9.2	36.0% / 66.7%	28.0% / 10.0%	2.7 / 5.1	70 / 60	48.2% / 71.7%	50.0% / 68.3%	33.0% / 36.6%	6.6 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	35.7% / 50.0%	17.6 / 31.4
3	LV	36 – 20 W	5.7	40.0% / 55.9%	6.7% / 5.9%	3.6% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.3	57.9% / 50.0%	13.2% / 13.6%	6.6 / 5.7	68 / 56	56.4% / 57.4%	50.0% / 53.6%	52.7% / 44.8%	6.0 / 6.7	0.0% / 5.4%	55.9% / 39.3%	27.9 / 27.7
4	@KC	10 – 26 L	-5.5	38.5% / 53.3%	5.1% / 3.3%	8.1% / 0.0%	4.4 / 7.6	48.6% / 36.0%	8.6% / 12.0%	5.3 / 3.8	74 / 55	42.9% / 50.0%	43.2% / 45.5%	37.5% / 47.7%	4.8 / 5.9	1.4% / 1.8%	47.3% / 45.5%	23.9 / 26.4
6	DEN	12 – 18 L	-8.4	45.2% / 34.6%	12.9% / 7.7%	7.4% / 8.3%	5.5 / 6.3	44.0% / 48.6%	16.0% / 21.6%	4.7 / 3.6	56 / 63	47.5% / 48.9%	44.6% / 42.9%	29.2% / 49.5%	5.1 / 4.7	1.8% / 0.0%	44.6% / 58.7%	28.5 / 31.7
7	SF	6 – 33 L	-15.8	44.4% / 65.4%	7.4% / 3.8%	16.0% / 8.0%	5.4 / 10.4	45.5% / 67.6%	9.1% / 16.2%	4.3 / 5.3	49 / 63	48.8% / 68.5%	44.9% / 66.7%	26.1% / 37.9%	4.9 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	44.9% / 58.7%	27.7 / 29.0
8	@BUF	21 – 24 L	-3.8	48.1% / 47.4%	7.4% / 5.3%	0.0% / 5.6%	6.0 / 7.8	55.9% / 52.6%	11.8% / 10.5%	5.5 / 5.0	61 / 57	52.9% / 55.8%	52.5% / 50.9%	37.8% / 54.0%	5.7 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	55.7% / 66.7%	32.4 / 23.6
9	@NYJ	30 – 27 W	-4.1	48.6% / 65.4%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 4.0%	7.8 / 9.9	58.5% / 50.0%	14.6% / 5.6%	3.9 / 3.6	76 / 44	55.2% / 58.8%	53.9% / 59.1%	39.3% / 41.6%	5.7 / 7.3	0.0% / 0.0%	53.9% / 40.9%	21.1 / 23.5
10	BAL	23 – 17 W	3.8	52.6% / 44.4%	5.3% / 5.6%	0.0% / 2.9%	7.1 / 6.7	59.0% / 64.3%	23.1% / 14.3%	4.4 / 4.1	58 / 64	61.4% / 56.3%	56.9% / 53.1%	48.1% / 20.7%	5.3 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	67.2% / 43.8%	30.0 / 21.8
11	@HOU	20 – 27 L	-3.3	47.6% / 67.6%	4.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.3 / 9.3	54.2% / 21.1%	20.8% / 31.6%	3.6 / 2.9	66 / 56	51.0% / 53.3%	50.0% / 51.8%	43.0% / 47.4%	6.6 / 7.1	0.0% / 0.0%	36.4% / 33.9%	23.4 / 24.4

Arizona Cardinals @

New England Patriots

Sun, Nov 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis