Game Analysis

Lean – Over (45) – MINNESOTA (-3.5) vs Arizona

• Cardinals TE Trey McBride had a career-high 133 yards last week, but he will be contained on Sunday as the Vikings are conceding a 48% success rate to opposing tight ends (6th).
• Minnesota’s defense has an 83% zone coverage rate (5th-highest) and Kyler Murray will struggle as Arizona’s yards per attempt versus zone is a league-low 67% of the yards per attempt against man coverage.
• Cardinals RB James Conner leads the NFL with 65 forced missed tackles and Arizona’s offense is averaging 5.2 yards per rush (3rd) but the ground game will be shut down as the Vikings are allowing a league-low 30% rush success rate.
• Minnesota All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson had a season-low 16% target share last game, but I expect him to bounce back as the Vikings’ passing attack has a favorable matchup.
• Sam Darnold is averaging 30% more yppp versus Cover 3 than other coverages (4th) and the Cardinals have the 5th-highest Cover 3 rate.
• Minnesota’s offense leads the NFL averaging 29% more yards per attempt against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush and Arizona’s defense has a 39% blitz rate (5th-highest).
• Vikings LT Cam Robinson is allowing a 7.7% pressure rate, but he might not suit up and backup David Quessenberry is surrendering a 13% pressure rate.
• Minnesota RB Aaron Jones is averaging 1.45 yards per route run (7th) and Darnold will look to the screen game as the Cardinals defense is surrendering a 54% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (30th).
• Our model favors the Vikings by 7.3 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points, but Arizona applies to a 119-48-5 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on .500 or better teams that are coming off a game in which they scored in single-digits (the Cardinals scored just 6 points last week in Seattle).