Game Analysis
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Lean – MIAMI (-3.5) over Arizona
- Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in week 2 and Miami’s offense failed to have positive EPA on offense every game since he went out.
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jaylen Waddle had just 4 combined targets for 19 yards last week as Miami’s backup quarterbacks couldn’t get the ball to the weapons.
- Tagovailoa should start on Sunday. Hill averaged 2.33 yards per route run in the first two weeks with Tagovailoa (8th) and the All-Pro wide receivers should have a favorable matchup across from rookie CB Max Melton with starting cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting likely not suiting up.
- Miami’s offensive line has struggled to pick up blitzes this year and the Dolphins yards per attempt against the blitz is only 70% of the yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush. Tagovailoa will need to find answers to the blitz quickly as Arizona’s defense has a 39% blitz rate (6th-highest).
- One option for Tagovailoa against the blitz is to feature the screen game. Miami RB De’Von Achane is averaging 1.67 yards per route run (3rd) and the Cardinals’ defense is allowing a 57% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (31st).
- Arizona RB James Conner had 5 rushes of at least 10 yards in the win last Monday night, but it will be tougher sledding on the ground in this game as the Dolphins defense is conceding a 36% rush success rate (8th).
- Miami’s defense is allowing only -0.23 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (3rd) and they will contain TE Trey McBride, who has a 62% success rate (3rd).
- Kyler Murray has a yards per attempt against the blitz that is only 85% of his yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (27th) and he could struggle this week as the Dolphins have a 40% blitz rate (5th-highest).
- Miami’s defense leads the NFL with a 42% pressure rate, and I expect to see some scrambles from Murray when he’s bailing out of a messy pocket like he did last week on a 44-yard touchdown run.
- Dolphins’ interior defender Zach Sieler has 18 pressures (12th) but he will be limited by LG Evan Brown, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.
- Cardinals’ offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is best versus Cover 3 with Arizona’s yppp is 53% more than other coverages (2nd) and Petzing will have beaters designed for Miami’s defense with the 5th-highest Cover 3 rate.
- Our model favors the Dolphins by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.4 points, and Miami has an overall favorable matchup.