Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – Arizona (+13) over LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams outscored the Raiders 23-0 in the second half on Monday night and turned in the 4th-best performance of week 1 according to our metrics, while the Cardinals couldn’t even manage to get on the scoreboard until garbage time. However, there’s reason for optimism for Arizona’s offense as they graded as our 2nd-best rushing attack on a per run basis. Unfortunately, the Cardinals were only able to get star RB David Johnson 9 carries because they fell behind early. Los Angeles allowed Oakland’s 3rd-down back Jalen Richard 9 catches for 55 yards in week 1 and I expect Johnson will be effective in the receiving game as he finished 3rd among running backs in his last full season (2016) with 1.73 yards per route run. Nickelback Robey-Coleman was one of the few Rams defenders to play poorly in week 1 surrendering 2.03 yards per cover snap from the slot (3rd-worst) and I expect Larry Fitzgerald to dominate that matchup on Sunday.

Los Angeles is clearly a much better team than their division rival, and will certainly put up points on Sunday with their high powered offense, but Cardinals First-Team All-Pro defensive end Chandler Jones might be one of the only players in the league that can get the better of Rams First-Team All-Pro left tackle Andrew Whitworth and the advanced spread for this game was Los Angeles -8.5. I don’t believe the difference in week 1 performances fully justifies the 4 point move and our model favors the Rams by just 11.8 points.

Overreactions to bad losses by bad teams is nothing new and double-digit underdogs that have a losing straight up record and a losing spread record on the season are 46-12-1 ATS coming off a loss of 14 points or more the previous week and facing a team that won and scored 30 points or more the previous week. I’ll lean with Arizona at +13 points or more.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cardinals
Rams

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 15.0 18.5
Succ Pass Plays 360.7% 332.4%
Sack Rate 51.8% 52.9%
Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 11.1% 12.5%
Big Pass Yards 18.6% 48.0%
NYPP 37.7 46.2

Rush

Rush Plays 15.5 38.0
RB YPR 3.8 3.8
Stuff Rate 12.9% 24.9%
Succ Rush Plays 44.8% 47.5%
Big Rush Yards 15.2% 45.4%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.5

Game

All Snaps 30.5 56.5
Early Down Succ 38.5% 54.6%
Succ Rate 76.7% 69.7%
Big Yards Rate 17.5% 49.4%
Yards Per Play 7.5 7.9
Fumble Lost Rate 2.8% 1.1%
Time Per Play (sec) 54.8 40.0
Run Ratio 61.9% 71.4%
Starting Field Pos 24.2 28.6
Game Control -14.3 14.3

Points 3.0 29.0

LOS

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.0 34.5
Succ Pass Plays 54.4% 35.1%
Sack Rate 4.4% 3.0%
Int Rate 1.6% 5.6%
Deep Pass Rate 21.6% 7.5%
Big Pass Yards 44.6% 22.0%
NYPP 8.3 5.1

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 19.0
RB YPR 4.0 4.0
Stuff Rate 14.0% 15.4%
Succ Rush Plays 52.0% 44.9%
Big Rush Yards 41.8% 12.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.9

Game

All Snaps 64.0 53.5
Early Down Succ 56.7% 38.1%
Succ Rate 52.9% 38.6%
Big Yards Rate 45.6% 19.6%
Yards Per Play 6.2 4.7
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.2 32.9
Run Ratio 46.8% 35.4%
Starting Field Pos 33.1 21.3
Game Control 8.1 -8.1

Points 33.5 6.5

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	WAS	6 – 24 L	-13.7	700.0% / 600.0%	100.0% / 100.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	72.5 / 82.3	56.3% / 46.5%	12.5% / 25.6%	4.3 / 4.3	18 / 46	53.7% / 50.0%	127.8% / 82.6%	35.0% / 47.0%	11.9 / 9.3	5.6% / 2.2%	88.9% / 93.5%	29.3 / 18.0
2	@LA	0 – 34 L	-14.9	21.4% / 64.7%	3.6% / 5.9%	3.7% / 3.1%	3.0 / 10.1	33.3% / 48.5%	13.3% / 24.2%	3.6 / 2.7	43 / 67	23.3% / 59.2%	25.6% / 56.7%	0.0% / 51.9%	3.2 / 6.4	0.0% / 0.0%	34.9% / 49.3%	19.0 / 39.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	33 – 13 W	1.4	44.1% / 48.8%	2.9% / 2.4%	0.0% / 7.5%	6.6 / 7.3	55.6% / 56.5%	3.7% / 17.4%	5.2 / 4.1	61 / 64	54.2% / 52.8%	49.2% / 51.6%	39.3% / 39.2%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	44.3% / 35.9%	27.0 / 23.5
2	ARI	34 – 0 W	14.9	64.7% / 21.4%	5.9% / 3.6%	3.1% / 3.7%	10.1 / 3.0	48.5% / 33.3%	24.2% / 13.3%	2.7 / 3.6	67 / 43	59.2% / 23.3%	56.7% / 25.6%	51.9% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.2	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 34.9%	39.1 / 19.0

Arizona Cardinals @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Sep 16

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis