Arizona Cardinals @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 25
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -12.5, Total: 44.4

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – LA CHARGERS (-12.5) vs Arizona

Arizona’s offense has been 0.4 yards per play better since Byron Leftwich started calling plays. David Johnson has topped 100 scrimmage yards in all 3 games under Leftwich and he has a favorable matchup against a Chargers rush defense ranked 27th without linebacker Denzel Perryman. The Chargers will have Joey Bosa making his second start of the season after recording 2 pressures in 22 pass rushes in his debut last week. The Cardinals offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and Bosa could have a breakout game as he gets reintegrated into the lineup. Furthermore, I expect fellow Chargers’ DE Melvin Ingram’s production to improve after playing slightly below his standard from 2017 without the threat of Bosa on the other side. Ingram may face Cardinals’ backup left tackle Korey Cunningham this week as D.J. Humphries continues to recover from a knee injury.

The Chargers target running backs at the 4th-highest rate in the league with Austin Ekler and Melvin Gordon both ranking in the top 5 in yards per route run. The Cardinals surrender 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs and I expect the Los Angeles duo to have an excellent day catching the ball out of the backfield. Philip Rivers also should have time to look downfield with tackle Russell Okung limiting Arizona’s only dependable pass rusher Chandler Jones. Arizona’s top-flight CB Patrick Peterson may be on Chargers’ star WR Kennan Allen when he lines up outside the numbers, but Allen takes 53% of his snaps in the slot while gaining 2.11 yard per slot route run and he should take advantage of a banged-up Budda Baker, who is conceding 1.46 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 2nd-worst among qualifying nickelbacks.

Our model favors the Chargers by 14.7 with a total prediction of 44.5 and I’ll lean with the big favorite here.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Chargers
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 28.6 29.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 107.3% 107.0%
  • Sack Rate 17.8% 19.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.7% 14.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 41.7% 37.9%
  • NYPP 12.8 14.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.2 33.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 22.5% 25.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.4% 46.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 24.0% 53.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 50.8 62.9
  • Early Down Succ 41.9% 51.4%
  • Succ Rate 47.9% 52.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.8% 45.0%
  • Yards Per Play 5.3 5.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 33.8 33.1
  • Run Ratio 48.1% 53.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.0 30.8
  • Game Control -6.3 6.3
 
  • Points 14.5 24.8
Share This