Game Analysis
Lean – LA CHARGERS (-12.5) vs Arizona
Arizona’s offense has been 0.4 yards per play better since Byron Leftwich started calling plays. David Johnson has topped 100 scrimmage yards in all 3 games under Leftwich and he has a favorable matchup against a Chargers rush defense ranked 27th without linebacker Denzel Perryman. The Chargers will have Joey Bosa making his second start of the season after recording 2 pressures in 22 pass rushes in his debut last week. The Cardinals offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and Bosa could have a breakout game as he gets reintegrated into the lineup. Furthermore, I expect fellow Chargers’ DE Melvin Ingram’s production to improve after playing slightly below his standard from 2017 without the threat of Bosa on the other side. Ingram may face Cardinals’ backup left tackle Korey Cunningham this week as D.J. Humphries continues to recover from a knee injury.
The Chargers target running backs at the 4th-highest rate in the league with Austin Ekler and Melvin Gordon both ranking in the top 5 in yards per route run. The Cardinals surrender 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs and I expect the Los Angeles duo to have an excellent day catching the ball out of the backfield. Philip Rivers also should have time to look downfield with tackle Russell Okung limiting Arizona’s only dependable pass rusher Chandler Jones. Arizona’s top-flight CB Patrick Peterson may be on Chargers’ star WR Kennan Allen when he lines up outside the numbers, but Allen takes 53% of his snaps in the slot while gaining 2.11 yard per slot route run and he should take advantage of a banged-up Budda Baker, who is conceding 1.46 yards per cover snap in the slot, which ranks 2nd-worst among qualifying nickelbacks.
Our model favors the Chargers by 14.7 with a total prediction of 44.5 and I’ll lean with the big favorite here.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
28.6
29.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
107.3%
107.0%
-
Sack Rate
17.8%
19.1%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
14.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
41.7%
37.9%
-
NYPP
12.8
14.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.2
33.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
22.5%
25.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.4%
46.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
24.0%
53.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
50.8
62.9
-
Early Down Succ
41.9%
51.4%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
52.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.8%
45.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.3
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
33.8
33.1
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
53.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.0
30.8
-
Game Control
-6.3
6.3
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
36.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
52.9%
48.6%
-
Sack Rate
5.1%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
15.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
50.8%
48.0%
-
NYPP
8.8
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.2
24.8
-
RB YPR
4.9
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
23.7%
23.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.0%
53.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
55.2%
41.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.8
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
58.9
61.3
-
Early Down Succ
53.1%
51.5%
-
Succ Rate
49.4%
50.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
53.8%
48.1%
-
Yards Per Play
6.9
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
31.5
29.1
-
Run Ratio
44.9%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
26.5
-
Game Control
3.7
-3.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
WAS |
6 – 24 L |
-13.7 |
700.0% / 600.0% |
100.0% / 100.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
72.5 / 82.3 |
56.3% / 46.5% |
12.5% / 25.6% |
4.3 / 4.3 |
18 / 46 |
53.7% / 50.0% |
127.8% / 82.6% |
35.0% / 47.0% |
11.9 / 9.3 |
5.6% / 2.2% |
88.9% / 93.5% |
29.3 / 18.0 |
2 |
@LA |
0 – 34 L |
-14.9 |
21.4% / 64.7% |
3.6% / 5.9% |
3.7% / 3.1% |
3.0 / 10.1 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
13.3% / 24.2% |
3.6 / 2.7 |
43 / 67 |
23.3% / 59.2% |
25.6% / 56.7% |
0.0% / 51.9% |
3.2 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.9% / 49.3% |
19.0 / 39.1 |
3 |
CHI |
14 – 16 L |
7.2 |
40.0% / 42.1% |
13.3% / 7.9% |
11.5% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 5.1 |
33.3% / 54.8% |
27.8% / 22.6% |
2.9 / 3.9 |
48 / 69 |
40.5% / 50.0% |
37.5% / 47.8% |
58.8% / 37.7% |
4.6 / 4.6 |
2.1% / 1.4% |
37.5% / 44.9% |
32.8 / 27.8 |
4 |
SEA |
17 – 20 L |
-2.0 |
42.9% / 48.1% |
3.6% / 7.4% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.9 |
39.3% / 50.0% |
35.7% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 5.0 |
56 / 61 |
40.9% / 58.0% |
41.1% / 49.2% |
54.0% / 35.6% |
4.7 / 5.4 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
50.0% / 55.7% |
26.4 / 35.5 |
5 |
@SF |
28 – 18 W |
6.1 |
80.0% / 71.1% |
10.0% / 10.5% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
16.4 / 7.9 |
30.8% / 50.0% |
23.1% / 29.4% |
2.3 / 4.3 |
36 / 72 |
40.0% / 45.2% |
44.4% / 61.1% |
47.1% / 41.2% |
6.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 4.2% |
72.2% / 47.2% |
39.7 / 22.7 |
6 |
@MIN |
17 – 27 L |
-8.0 |
37.1% / 54.1% |
11.4% / 10.8% |
3.2% / 3.0% |
5.9 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 42.4% |
30.0% / 18.2% |
3.1 / 5.9 |
55 / 70 |
48.8% / 54.7% |
38.2% / 48.6% |
41.3% / 31.3% |
4.9 / 5.9 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
36.4% / 47.1% |
25.5 / 30.9 |
7 |
DEN |
10 – 45 L |
-24.9 |
40.0% / 45.8% |
13.3% / 8.3% |
7.7% / 4.5% |
3.4 / 7.4 |
33.3% / 32.4% |
28.6% / 23.5% |
3.3 / 3.9 |
66 / 58 |
41.2% / 42.5% |
37.9% / 37.9% |
32.3% / 52.6% |
3.4 / 5.4 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
31.8% / 58.6% |
23.5 / 37.0 |
8 |
SF |
18 – 15 W |
-3.1 |
41.9% / 40.6% |
7.0% / 12.5% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.0 |
47.6% / 32.3% |
14.3% / 35.5% |
4.2 / 3.5 |
64 / 63 |
44.0% / 36.7% |
43.8% / 36.5% |
21.8% / 46.8% |
5.0 / 4.2 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
32.8% / 49.2% |
20.8 / 31.1 |
10 |
@KC |
14 – 26 L |
-8.0 |
36.4% / 54.5% |
11.4% / 15.2% |
5.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.4 |
57.7% / 45.8% |
7.7% / 33.3% |
3.7 / 5.0 |
70 / 57 |
44.2% / 56.8% |
44.3% / 50.9% |
34.1% / 58.3% |
3.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.1% / 42.1% |
23.7 / 36.2 |
11 |
OAK |
21 – 23 L |
-1.4 |
33.3% / 48.5% |
4.8% / 12.1% |
10.0% / 0.0% |
6.1 / 5.2 |
41.9% / 60.6% |
32.3% / 15.2% |
5.0 / 4.6 |
52 / 66 |
42.5% / 60.8% |
38.5% / 54.5% |
43.3% / 47.4% |
5.4 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
59.6% / 50.0% |
29.6 / 29.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
KC |
28 – 38 L |
-9.6 |
55.8% / 46.4% |
1.9% / 3.6% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
8.0 / 9.1 |
59.1% / 59.3% |
18.2% / 25.9% |
5.6 / 3.9 |
74 / 55 |
61.3% / 55.6% |
56.8% / 52.7% |
45.1% / 66.0% |
7.3 / 6.6 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
29.7% / 49.1% |
20.1 / 29.1 |
2 |
@BUF |
31 – 20 W |
14.5 |
65.5% / 36.8% |
6.9% / 13.2% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
8.3 / 5.5 |
33.3% / 54.5% |
40.7% / 31.8% |
4.1 / 3.8 |
56 / 60 |
55.6% / 45.7% |
50.0% / 43.3% |
44.0% / 59.0% |
6.3 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
48.2% / 36.7% |
36.5 / 26.7 |
3 |
@LA |
23 – 35 L |
-9.0 |
40.6% / 59.5% |
6.3% / 2.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.7 / 9.5 |
60.0% / 62.2% |
30.0% / 10.8% |
7.1 / 4.7 |
52 / 74 |
45.9% / 62.7% |
48.1% / 60.8% |
62.9% / 45.5% |
6.8 / 7.1 |
3.8% / 1.4% |
38.5% / 50.0% |
26.6 / 22.8 |
4 |
SF |
29 – 27 W |
-2.8 |
47.5% / 52.6% |
2.5% / 2.6% |
2.6% / 5.4% |
6.1 / 7.6 |
35.5% / 38.1% |
12.9% / 28.6% |
4.2 / 3.6 |
71 / 59 |
50.0% / 48.9% |
42.3% / 47.5% |
47.4% / 46.4% |
5.2 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.7% / 35.6% |
41.3 / 22.5 |
5 |
OAK |
26 – 10 W |
9.9 |
78.3% / 68.0% |
4.3% / 12.0% |
0.0% / 4.5% |
14.5 / 9.9 |
27.3% / 61.5% |
30.3% / 23.1% |
2.5 / 3.2 |
56 / 38 |
45.5% / 55.6% |
48.2% / 65.8% |
43.4% / 59.5% |
7.4 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 2.6% |
58.9% / 34.2% |
35.3 / 21.2 |
6 |
@CLE |
38 – 14 W |
14.7 |
45.5% / 39.2% |
4.5% / 9.8% |
4.8% / 4.3% |
9.2 / 4.2 |
63.2% / 42.9% |
13.2% / 33.3% |
6.5 / 4.9 |
60 / 72 |
68.8% / 41.5% |
56.7% / 40.3% |
69.2% / 50.2% |
7.5 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
63.3% / 29.2% |
30.5 / 34.2 |
7 |
TEN |
20 – 19 W |
4.9 |
57.1% / 58.8% |
7.1% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
10.6 / 6.6 |
35.3% / 48.5% |
17.6% / 18.2% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
45 / 67 |
52.9% / 51.0% |
48.9% / 53.7% |
55.4% / 33.1% |
7.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.8% / 49.3% |
29.0 / 27.5 |
9 |
@SEA |
25 – 17 W |
5.4 |
42.9% / 39.0% |
7.1% / 9.8% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.7 / 4.9 |
50.0% / 62.5% |
31.8% / 21.9% |
7.3 / 4.8 |
50 / 73 |
51.2% / 52.7% |
46.0% / 49.3% |
69.9% / 30.3% |
7.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
44.0% / 43.8% |
21.2 / 25.1 |
10 |
@OAK |
20 – 6 W |
5.9 |
48.1% / 39.0% |
3.7% / 9.8% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
8.2 / 5.0 |
57.7% / 43.5% |
19.2% / 21.7% |
4.3 / 5.0 |
53 / 64 |
59.5% / 45.5% |
52.8% / 40.6% |
47.5% / 45.3% |
6.3 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
49.1% / 35.9% |
21.6 / 23.1 |
11 |
DEN |
22 – 23 L |
3.5 |
47.8% / 46.9% |
6.5% / 0.0% |
4.7% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 6.8 |
38.5% / 57.9% |
23.1% / 15.8% |
3.7 / 5.7 |
72 / 51 |
40.4% / 56.4% |
44.4% / 51.0% |
52.8% / 45.5% |
6.7 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.1% / 37.3% |
19.7 / 32.7 |