Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Arizona (+5.5) over LAS VEGAS

· The Cardinals were down to a third-string guard in last week’s loss and were without starting CB Trayvon Mullen, WR Rondale Moore, edge defender JJ Watt. I’m not counting on Watt and Moore returning on Sunday, but I do think getting LG Justin Pugh and Mullen back on the field will make a difference for Arizona.

· LG Sean Harlow surrendered 6 pressures against the Chiefs which was the 3rd-most among all guards. No other Cardinals offensive lineman allowed more than 2 pressures. Arizona’s offensive line ranked 7th in pass blocking efficiency last season and they should finish highly again with Justin Pugh back in uniform.  

· Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Vance Joseph haphazardly blitzed Patrick Mahomes without one of his starting cornerbacks which forced Isaiah Simmons into coverage. Simmons surrendered 17.7 yards per target to Kansas City’s receivers.

· Arizona’s defense had a 33.6% blitz rate (4th-highest) under Joseph last season and his aggressive style could work on Sunday versus a Raiders offensive line not clicking at the moment. New Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels used at least three different line combinations over the course of the game against the Chargers.

· The Raiders’ passing game is a work in progress at this point in the season with the new coaching regime. Derek Carr averaged 0.25 EPA/dropback when targeting Davante Adams but -0.53 EPA/dropback on all other passing attempts.

· I just don’t think it’s reasonable to give a quarterback of Kyler Murray’s caliber more than 5 points. The only reason the Chiefs closed as 6.5-point favorites last week was because of the Cardinals injuries (half of which will return this Sunday) and the Raiders are nowhere near the elite tier of Kansas City. Arizona is still 19-8-1 ATS as an underdog or pick under coach Kingsbury (14-3-1 ATS on the road) and they have a winning straight up record as a dog or pick. They are live to win again this week.

· Marquise Brown had 43 yards and a TD in his Cardinals debut and he should be able to run by backup Raiders CB Amik Robertson at least once on Sunday. Murray should find Brown downfield especially if Las Vegas starting safety Trevon Moehrig (hip) is unable to suit up.

· Our model has the Raiders by just 3.0 points with a predicted total of 50.7 and the Cardinals apply to a 147-54-5 ATS situation that plays on teams coming off a loss of 21 points or more.

Arizona is a 2-Star Best Bet at +4.5 or more and 1-Star at +4.