Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Arizona (+8.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

• The Cardinals were up 21-6 last week when RB Emari Demercado ripped off a 72-yard touchdown until the play was reversed because Demercado fumbled out of the back of the end zone before breaking the plane. Later, Arizona’s defense intercepted a pass on the 5-yard line, fumbled, and the Titans recovered the ball in the end zone for a touchdown. Tennessee’s victory with an average win probability of 12.1% was the lowest of the last decade.
• I think the Cardinals’ defense can bounce back after the embarrassing 16 fourth-quarter points allowed to the Titans. Nick Rallis’s structure is specifically designed to neutralize RPO-heavy spread offenses like Shane Steichen’s because the 3 safeties muddy reads by keeping both run-fit and coverage responsibilities ambiguous. Indianapolis has a league-high 34% play action rate, and Arizona’s defense ranks 4th relatively versus play action compared to standard dropbacks.
• Daniel Jones also ranks 28th relatively against a standard pass rush, and the Cardinals will not give him the blitz looks he crushes. Arizona’s defense only has a 23% blitz rate (28th).
• The Cardinals’ defense is conceding -0.20 EPA/rush (6th), and they will contain RB Jonathan Taylor on the ground. The Colts have a 44% rush success rate (8th).
• By EPA/play since the start of last season, Jacoby Brissett has been about 8.5 points per game worse than Kyler Murray. However, Brissett was functional with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing three seasons ago in Cleveland, averaging 6.2 yppp and Murray is only averaging 4.8 yppp this season. I’m downgrading Arizona’s offense by 3.5  points for the difference between Murray and Brissett, which puts us on market.
• Indianapolis defensive coordinator Luo Anarumo’s coverage-rotation and creeper structures are tailor-made to frustrate offenses like Petzing’s, which depend on clean sightlines, defined reads, and rhythm throws. The only way the Cardinals can move the ball is if they can run efficiently on early downs, but third-string RB Michael Carter is averaging only 1.84 yards per rush after contact, which is the lowest in the NFL among 55 qualifying running backs. Arizona has decided to switch to 4th-string RB Bam Knight.
• Our model favors the Colts by 8.3 with a predicted total of 46.4 points but the situation strongly favors the Cardinals.
• Arizona applies to a 74-15-3 ATS subset of a 123-45-7 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss while the Colts apply to an 88-167-7 ATS situation that applies to teams that have scored a total of 95 points or more over their last 3 games.

Arizona is a Strong Opinion at +8 or more.