Game Analysis

GREEN BAY (-5) vs Arizona

• Jordan Love is averaging 0.28 EPA/dropback versus zone (3rd) and he has a favorable matchup this week as the Cardinals have an 80% zone coverage rate (9th-highest).
• Packers TE Tucker Kraft is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (3rd) and leads all tight ends with 172 yards after the catch. Arizona’s defense is allowing a 60% success rate to opposing tight ends (27th) and will struggle to contain Kraft.
• Cardinals backup nickelback Kei’Trel Clark is surrendering 1.90 yards per cover snap in the slot but it looks like starter Garrett Williams will suit up this week to battle on the inside with Green Bay slot WR Jayden Reed, who is averaging 0.72 EPA/target (4th).
• Arizona’s offense lost right guard Will Hernandez for the season last game, and they were already without right tackle Jonah Williams.
• Kyler Murray will be grateful this matchup won’t test the backups on the right side of the offensive line with exotic blitzes. Murray is averaging 17% more yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush than the blitz (6th) and the Packers defense has a 74.6% standard pass rush rate (5th-highest).
• Cardinals’ WR Marvin Harrison is averaging 0.39 EPA/target (15th) but it looks like Green Bay’s defense will get back starting cornerback Jaire Alexander to limit the rookie wide receiver.
• However, Packers interior defender Devonte Wyatt will likely need at least another week to recover. Wyatt has a 12.5% run stop rate and Green Bay’s rush defense rated 26th by our numbers will get worse without Wyatt. Arizona’s offense is averaging 5.5 yards per carry (3rd).
• Our model favors the Packers by 6.9 with a predicted total of 46.8 points.