Game Analysis

DENVER (-1.5) vs Arizona

· These might be the two most banged-up teams to square off this year and it starts with the quarterbacks. Kyler Murray tore his ACL and Russell Wilson is out with a concussion.

· Colt McCoy has been about 2 points worse per game than Murray by EPA since the start of 2021.

· Brett Rypien is averaging just 4.3 yppp this season and he has a career 6.3% interception rate. Rypien is about three and a half points worse than Wilson.

· Arizona’s offensive line ranks 25th in pass blocking efficiency since losing starting left tackle DJ Humphries. The Cardinals are down four starters on the offensive line.

· Arizona’s secondary will likely be without two cornerbacks Byron Murphy and Antonio Hamilton, who are worth at least a point due to the cluster effect.

· Cardinals interior defender Zach Allen is out after getting hand surgery. Allen has 35 pressures in 2022 (13th) and is worth 0.4 points.

· The Broncos will be without three of their top four wide receivers. Courtland Sutton, Kendall Hinton and KJ Hamler were not practicing which leaves only Jerry Jeudy, who  caught all eight of his targets for 73 yards and three touchdowns last week.

· Rypien will need to get his running backs involved in the receiving game with only one starting WR on the field. Arizona’s defense is allowing 6.4 yards per target to opposing RBs (28th).

· Denver’s defensive line averaged 17.1 pressures per game before trading Bradley Chubb to Miami and have only averaged 13.4 pressures the last five games.

· There are some positives for the Broncos as it looks like they will have back starting guard Dalton Risner and last week they returned nickelback K’Waun Williams, who is conceding a league-low 0.64 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain ranks 5th in coverage grade by PFF and he will likely shadow DeAndre Hopkins, who has 57% success rate (18th).

· After accounting for all the missing players, our model makes this game exactly a pick ’em with a predicted total of 34.9.