Arizona Cardinals @

Cleveland Browns

Sun, Oct 17
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Cleveland Browns -3, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Note: This game has moved out of Best Bet and Strong Opinion range since the release on Monday morning.

2-Star Best Bet – **Under (53.5) – CLEVELAND vs Arizona

Lean – CLEVELAND (-3)

Kyler Murray has only faced pressure on 26% of his dropbacks this year but he likely won’t be comfortable in the pocket this week. Browns edge defenders Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney rank 2nd and 4th respectively in pass rushing efficiency. Rodney Hudson leads all centers in pass blocking efficiency, but he was forced out of the game against San Francisco with a ribs injury and might not be in uniform on Sunday. RG Josh Jones surrendered a sack plus two hurries last week and backup C Max Garcia will struggle to contain Cleveland’s interior pass rush. DT Malik Jackson and DT Malik McDowell have combined for 25 pressures so Murray will be getting pressure from all angles this week.

Browns CB Denzel Ward has already forced 5 incompletions and he will make it difficult for Murray to connect on deep passes to WR DeAndre Hopkins.

The Browns lead the NFL with a 31% target rate to tight ends, but Baker Mayfield will have to look elsewhere in this matchup. Cardinals’ linebacker Isaiah Simmons is allowing just 0.81 yards per cover snap and Arizona’s defense is conceding only 4.7 yards per target to opposing TEs.

Cleveland’s offense will likely lean on their 7th-rated ground game versus a Cardinals rush defense ranked 30th defending the run and more running usually leads to lower scoring games.

Arizona’s defense is currently without edge defender Chandler Jones (worth 0.8 points) but there’s a slight possibility for him to return after two negative tests within a 24-hour span because he has been vaccinated.

Our model favors the Browns by 3.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.8 points. The Under is no longer in Best Bet range (just a lean under 49.5 points) and I’ll lean with Cleveland based on a favorable matchup.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Browns


  • Pass Plays 35.0 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 53.5% 46.2%
  • Sack Rate 5.6% 6.4%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.7% 16.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 44.2% 26.6%
  • NYPP 8.6 6.3


  • Rush Plays 30.0 25.8
  • RB YPR 4.1 5.1
  • Stuff Rate 24.3% 25.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 56.4% 56.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.2% 48.4%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.2 5.3


  • All Snaps 65.0 62.6
  • Early Down Succ 58.3% 56.8%
  • Succ Rate 54.6% 50.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.3% 35.0%
  • Yards Per Play 6.6 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 26.7
  • Run Ratio 45.7% 41.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 6.4 -6.4
  • Points 31.4 19.0
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