Arizona Cardinals @

Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Oct 6
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: Cincinnati Bengals -3, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Arizona (+3) over CINCINNATI  

Last week’s 17-point loss to the Seahawks wasn’t as bad as it seemed, as the Cardinals as they were outgained by less than a half yard per play and the game would’ve played out much differently if Zane Gonzalez didn’t miss two field goals and Jadeveon Clowney didn’t return an intercepted screen pass for a touchdown. Although, Kyler Murray has regressed with his air yards per attempt dropping from 10.7 in week 1 to 8.1 in week 2 to 5.0 the last two games. Defenses are figuring out how to stop the spread offense as Murray has thrown for just 3.8 yards per pass play the last two weeks after throwing for 5.9 yards per pass play in the opening two games. It will likely get worse for Murray with wide receiver Christian Kirk most likely unavailable to play on Sunday (he’s doubtful as of Thursday). Kirk has added 0.29 expected points per non-turnover target since the start of last season, which is significantly higher than the 0.11 posted by Arizona’s other wide receivers combined. Guards Justin Pugh and JR Sweezy both rank in the top 10 in pass blocking efficiency and should slow down Geno Atkins, who is still playing at a Pro Bowl level despite hardly any talent around him. The Cardinals have the 5th-best ground game by our numbers and David Johnson should find success versus a Bengals rush defense ranked 30th.

After an aggressive week 1 in Seattle, Zac Taylor’s offense has been conservative, ranking 29th in air yards per attempt and it’s unlikely to improve with big-play receiver John Ross unavailable. Ross was gaining 2.13 yards per route run (15th and would’ve had a nice matchup versus this Cardinals defense sans Patrick Peterson, but the third-year receiver is expected to miss multiple games with a shoulder injury). Tackle Andre Smith is 4th-worst in pass blocking efficiency filling in for Cordy Glenn and the backup stands little chance of staying in front of Chandler Jones on Sunday. Andy Dalton will be forced into short passes underneath because Cincinnati’s 32nd-rated rushing attack is unlikely to provide any help.

I expect the Cardinals to lean on David Johnson this week while Tyler Eifert and Tyler Boyd should be the focus for the Bengals. Our model basically makes this game pick, with a predicted total of 48.0, and I’ll lean with Arizona plus the points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cardinals
  • Bengals
AZ
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 47.3 36.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.9% 52.8%
  • Sack Rate 10.6% 7.8%
  • Int Rate 2.4% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.4% 20.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 42.0% 45.4%
  • NYPP 5.1 7.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 19.8 30.8
  • RB YPR 3.8 4.1
  • Stuff Rate 20.2% 20.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 54.4% 50.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.6% 40.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.3 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 67.0 67.5
  • Early Down Succ 46.3% 55.3%
  • Succ Rate 44.6% 51.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 44.4% 45.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.0 6.2
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 1.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 25.0 31.0
  • Run Ratio 29.4% 46.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 23.2 29.7
  • Game Control -8.0 8.0
 
  • Points 18.5 28.8
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